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NBA Player Props For Timberwolves vs. Mavericks | Game 4


Thomas Snodgrass

Updated: May 28, 2024

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The Dallas Mavericks currently hold a 3-0 series lead over the Minnesota Timberwolves in the Western Conference Finals, and for the T-Wolves, their season could come to an end tonight.

In Game 2, Mavs’ superstar Luka Doncic hit a game-winning three with only a few seconds remaining, and ultimately, that seems like the moment that Minnesota’s season truly came to a close.

Hitting a clutch three over Rudy Gobert — a four-time NBA Defensive Player of the Year — is certainly a difficult task, but Doncic tied up the big man like a pretzel and connected on one of the best shots in franchise history.

It’s hard to imagine a scenario where the Mavericks drop this series, and tonight in Dallas, I’m expecting Doncic and Kyrie Irving to put the nail in the T-Wolves’ coffin.

The Mavericks are probably checking out hotels in Boston right now, so tonight, I’d expect Dallas to reach the NBA Finals for the first time since 0000.

Let’s take a look at some player props for Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals, and as always, all props are paired with the best odds.

Rudy Gobert – C, Minnesota Timberwolves

Even in a potential losing effort, someone has to chip in some points, and I believe that man will be Rudy Gobert.

In the first two games of the series, Gobert scored at least 12 points in both games, but in Game 3, he only scored nine points, but that was largely due to playing only 29 minutes.

Assuming Gobert is out there for closer to his average of 35 minutes, he should be able to pick up another shot or two.

In an accumulating statistic like points, minutes are paramount.

Here’s a quick look at how Gobert’s point totals have fared when playing more or less than 30 minutes this postseason.

Gobert in PlayoffsGamesPoints Per Game
MORE Than 30 Minutes914.1 ppg
LESS Than 30 Minutes48.0 ppg

The least amount of minutes Gobert has played this postseason is 25, but that came in a blowout of the Phoenix Suns in the first round of the NBA Playoffs.

Considering that Dallas has covered the spread in every game in this series, I’d expect this game to be a close one, and that should lead to the defensive-focused T-Wolves frequently sending one of their best defensive players out on the floor.

Is it possible that Gobert’s defense is so important that his much-needed presence on the floor leads to him providing more offense for Minnesota? Yes, I believe that it does.

Pick: Gobert – OVER 11.5 Points

Best Odds: (+100) BetMGM

Naz Reid – PF/C, Minnesota Timberwolves

The weaker end of the Mavericks’ defense is in the frontcourt, as Dallas bigs such as Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively have been beat regularly throughout the season.

The Mavs were 19th in the NBA in points allowed to both centers and power forwards this season — 24.35 ppg to power forwards and 23.31 to centers — and Dallas’ defensive frontcourt numbers would have been just as bad in this series if Karl-Anthony Towns wasn’t throwing down more bricks than Kevin McCallister in Home Alone 2.

Towns is 3-for-22 from beyond the arc this series, and those misfires have been a possession killer for Minnesota.

Naz Reid, the NBA’s Sixth Man of the Year, made seven three-pointers in Game 2 alone and is now 11-of-20 from three in the series, so I’m expecting Chris Finch to give a little more run time to the hotter hand in Game 4.

The line for Reid’s point total sits at 12.5 on most sportsbooks, and considering that he has scored 14 or more points in all three games of the Western Conference Finals, I’m going to continue to back the over for Reid.

Pick: Reid – OVER 12.5 Points

Best Odds: (+100) FanDuel

Luka Doncic – PG, Dallas Mavericks

In the regular season, Doncic recorded a career-high 21 triple-doubles in 70 games.

Doncic has recorded four triple-doubles in his last six games in the NBA Playoffs, and in this potential series-clinching win for Dallas, I’d say Doncic can keep the triple-double train rolling.

Doncic was listed as “questionable” prior to Game 3 with a knee issue, but that didn’t seem to slow him down too much when he put up 33 points in the Mavs’ win. Apparently, the knee issue is still a point of concern for Doncic.

So, in an attempt to save their superstar, I can see Doncic playing more of a “quarterback” style role for the Mavs’ tonight, similar to Dallas’ clinching victory against the Oklahoma City Thunder in the Western Conference Semifinals.

In that contest, Doncic went 9-of-15 from the field for 29 points, and he tallied exactly 10 rebounds and 10 assists each.

Doncic should decorate the box score tonight. 

Pick: Doncic – To Record A Triple-Double

Best Odds: (+310) BetMGM

Kyrie Irving – SG, Dallas Mavericks

Doncic’s knee must be saved for the Mavericks’ NBA Finals chances against the Boston Celtics, so Kyrie Irving should see a boatload of shot opportunities tonight.

Irving is averaging 27.7 points per game in the Western Conference Finals, including two 30+ point games in the series, but is averaging 19.7 field goal attempts per game, which is in line with his regular season average of 19.5 shot attempts per game.

I’m assuming Irving will have more shots than usual tonight, and when looking back at the 58 contests played in the regular season, Irving recorded 20 or more field goal attempts 25 times.

In those 25 games with a higher shot volume, Irving averaged 30.64 points per game.

Pick: Irving – OVER 23.5 Points

Best Odds: (-105) DraftKings


About the author

A fan of both the Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers, which is rare! Thomas provides sports betting content with the intent to educate and enter...

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