NBA Tournament

According to data and stats being reported by multiple sources, including Forbes Magazine, the NBA and its 30 franchises have now surpassed $10 Billion in revenue on an annual basis.

The league has grown its brand globally, both from a fan engagement and player recruiting perspective.

This year, the NBA will once again set a record for most players on opening day rosters born outside the United States.

One hundred twenty-five (125) players born outside the US made an NBA roster to start the 2023 season.

Part of the league’s growth strategy definitely revolves around innovation. The NBA continues to innovate and try new ideas.

The introduction of their in-season tournament is just another example of their willingness to try something new.

The format for this tournament has been successful in sports before.

The reward for the players participating is cash, which has proven to be a successful motivator before.

The league is betting this new in-season tourney will increase fan interest, drive more revenues to their teams – and, of course, create some entertaining new betting opportunities for us along the way.

For all your 2023-’24 NBA In-Season Tournament info – we have you covered below.

Let’s go!

What Is The NBA Tournament?

Adam Silver and the NBA Owners are introducing a mid-season tournament; think European Soccer style for the tournament format.

There will be a round-robin group stage to start, with knockout rounds to follow.

All games except for the tournament championship game will count towards the NBA regular season standings.

Tournament games will occur every Tuesday and Friday in November, starting November 3rd.

NBA Tournament Groups

The 15 teams in the Eastern Conference and the 15 teams in the Western Conference have been divided into three groups of five. (3 groups for each conference = 6 total groups)

Eastern Conference Groups

East Group A	East Group B	East Group C
Philadelphia 76ers	Milwaukee Bucks	Boston Celtics
Cleveland Cavaliers	New York Knicks	Brooklyn Nets
Atlanta Hawks	Miami Heat	Toronto Raptors
Indiana Pacers	Washington Wizards	Chicago Bulls
Detroit Pistons	Charlotte Hornets	Orlando Magic

The NBA separated teams within each conference based on their regular season records from last year.

After dividing teams based on last year’s wins and losses, a random draw was used to determine the actual groups.

Western Conference Groups

West Group A	West Group B	West Group C
Memphis Grizzlies	Denver Nuggets	Sacramento Kings
Phoenix Suns	LA Clippers	Golden State Warriors
L.A. Lakers	New Orleans Pelicans	Minnesota Timberwolves
Utah Jazz	Dallas Mavericks	Oklahoma City Thunder
Portland Trail Blazers	Houston Rockets	San Antonio Spurs

NBA Tournament Format

• Each team will play the four other teams in their group one time. Each team will play two games at home and two on the road.

• The winner of each group will automatically advance to the knockout stage of the tournament. Each conference will also send one additional team to the knockout stage, along with the three group winners. (4 teams total from each Conference)

Tie-Breakers: The league fully expects there to be a necessity for tiebreakers, and the tiebreaker rules are complicated. However, one of the tiebreakers is point differential, which means teams should continue to run up the score in tournament games, even if they have a big lead.

The necessity to run up scores for tiebreaker reasons could be entertaining and something to watch for.

• The semi-finals and finals will be played on a neutral court in Las Vegas. The championship game DOES NOT count towards regular season standings.

Betting The Tournament Winner

If you are a fan of NBA futures betting, you might be familiar with the current odds for teams to win this year’s championship.

2023-’24 NBA Championship Odds

Team	Championship Odds	2022-’23 Record
BOS Celtics	+370	57-25
MIL Bucks	+410	58-24
DEN Nuggets	+500	53-29
PHO Sunx	+600	45-37
LA Clippers	+1300	44-38

Oddsmakers have suggested that four teams have currently separated themselves from the betting pack when it comes to winning the NBA Playoffs.

The Celtics, Bucks, Nuggets, and Suns have significantly shorter odds than everyone else in the league.

However, when it comes to betting teams to win the in-season tournament, the odds for the chalky teams at the top look significantly different.

2023-’24 NBA Tournament Odds

Team	Tournament Odds	Championship Odds
BOS Celtics	+950	+370
MIL Bucks	+950	+410
DEN Nuggets	+950	+500
PHO Sunx	+1400	+600
LA Clippers	+1800	+1300

Winning an NBA Championship is a long-term grind. There is an 82-game regular season that needs to be played, and then four rounds of playoff basketball before a champion is declared.

The longer a season is played, the more discrepancy you will have between teams with different talent levels.

Bad NBA teams might win two, three, or even four games in a row at some point during a regular season.

Great teams might lose two or even three games in a row.

Over the course of 82 games, streaks will even out, and the better teams, the teams with the best players, will end up at the top of the standings, more often than not.

However, how do you set odds for an in-season tournament where the “regular season” portion is a four-game round-robin and not an 82-game schedule?

Will there be more volatility and uncertainty around picking the teams who will win their division?

It will be a lot of fun to watch year one of the tournament play out and see how the betting favorites held up compared to the teams with more enticing odds.

Betting On Tournament Groups

Another exciting way to wager on this year’s NBA in-season tournament is to find some value in teams to win their group.

Eastern Conference – Group B

Team	Win Group Odds	Win Tournament
MIL Bucks	-120	+950
MIA Heat	+300	+2400
NY Knicks	+340	+2400
CHA Hornets	+1200	+7000
WSH Wizards	+1900	+10000

Looking at the odds for teams to win Group B of the Eastern Conference, there are many different betting approaches to consider.

Scenario A – a bettor might like the Milwaukee Bucks as the best team and bet $100 on the Bucks to win the group. (Milwaukee @ -120 odds)

In that scenario, the total profit if Milwaukee does win the group would be $83.33.

Scenario B – a bettor might be more comfortable taking two teams instead of Milwaukee and splitting their unit into two wagers.

A $50 bet on the Miami Heat at +300 and a $50 bet on the NY Knicks at +340 gives a bettor two teams to cheer for instead of just one.

If either Miami or the Knicks can win the group, the bettor would receive more profit than the $83.33 that Milwaukee is paying.

NBA Tournament MVP

To start the NBA regular season, Cam Thomas of the Brooklyn Nets scored 33, 30, and 36 points in his first three games of the season.

At the time when Thomas was a scoring machine, sportsbooks weren’t even offering odds on him to win the NBA MVP Award this year.

However, you can bet that if the Nets shooting guard scores 30+ points in his first three tournament games, there will be odds on him to win the tournament MVP.

The long-winded point we are trying to make is that betting on the tournament MVP will not be easy.

The sample size for this event is very small.

Over time, we can expect the best players to be the best players.

However, to win the NBA in-season tournament, a player will have played a total of seven games: four round-robin games plus three games in the knockout stage.

Anything can happen in seven games – but it is safe to assume that the tournament MVP will MORE THAN LIKELY come from someone on the winning team.

With that in mind, here are some tournament MVP Odds to consider.

NBA Tournament MVP Odds

Player	MVP Odds	Team To Win Tourney
Kevin Durant	+1600	Suns +1400
Steph Curry	+1700	Warriors +1200
Donovan Mitchell	+1900	Cavaliers +1400
Luka Doncic	+2300	Mavericks +2600
Damian Lillard	+2300	Bucks +950
S. Gilgeous-Alexander	+2600	Thunder +2300
LeBron James	+2600	Lakers +1200

Some bettors might look at the Tournament MVP Odds and decide that betting on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to win MVP at +2600 is actually a better play than betting on OKC to win +2300.

What we are not allowed to do (trust us, we tried it at FanDuel) is parlay both the Thunder to win (+2300) and SGA to win MVP (+2600).

When we tried that combination, FanDuel politely told us those two wagers could not be combined into one ticket.

At least we tried!

NBA Tournament Sides and Totals

Traditionally, when we think of betting games in the NBA, we think of point spreads, moneylines, and over / unders.

As NBA bettors, we will still have access to individual game betting. However, what hasn’t been determined is how a round-robin tournament style will impact these games.

Some of the things we will want to consider are:

• The Prize Money. With an additional $500,000 per player going to the winning team, will that impact a team’s overall effort level for a tournament game?
• Are we more likely to see favorites covering the spread at a higher rate because point differential matters? With tiebreaker rules in play, will teams be altering their rotation, especially if they are up or down a lot of points in a game?
• How will Over/Unders (totals) be impacted, if at all, in this tournament format? Can we expect good players to play more minutes? Can we expect teams to push the tempo more, leading to more Overs because point differential matters?

A bettor who can accurately predict how a tournament format will impact these games could have a significant edge when it comes to betting sides and totals for the NBA tournament round-robing games.

Always Shop Around

As we discussed above, the in-season tournament will last a maximum of seven games for the two teams who meet in the championship.

For the first time, we are looking at betting on an NBA sprint and not the marathon of a regular season and long playoff run.

How this early season sprint will play out is still to be determined. Will the betting favorites step up on short notice and get it done?

Is this the format where underdogs make more sense from a betting perspective because the short tournament lends itself to more volatility and, ultimately, more upsets?

NBA Tournament MVP Odds

Player	DraftKings	FanDuel	BetMGM
Kevin Durant	+2200	+1600	+2200
Steph Curry	+2500	+1700	+2200
Luka Doncic	+1700	+2300	+2200

Whether your in-season tournament narrative is leaning towards favorites, or underdogs – what we can all agree upon is that shopping around for the Best Odds available just makes a lot of sense.

Looking at the in-season tournament MVP odds – imagine betting on Kevin Durant at +1600 when +2200 is available.

The difference for Steph Curry is even greater.

A $10 bettor could win $170 betting Steph at FanDuel or $250 in profit playing the +2500 odds at DraftKings.

The difference in profit is $80 on a single $10 bet.

Over time, the ability to shop around and play the Best Odds available has a significant impact on our overall ROI.

If you aren’t shopping for your Best Odds, you aren’t giving yourself the best chance to win.

How about getting all caught up on the new NBA season developments?