NBA Playoff First Basket Picks For Monday | Apr. 29

Three playoff series continue in the NBA on Monday, with two of the series potentially being elimination games with the Oklahoma City Thunder up 3-0 on the New Orleans Pelicans, and the Denver Nuggets up 3-1 on the Los Angeles Lakers.

Clubs with their backs against the wall will attempt to get an early jump on offense, and early offense will be of interest to bettors looking to make first basket bets tonight.

Here’s a look at the outcome of the opening tip, the first shot, and first basket for each of these three series thus far.

Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat

BOS vs. MIA	Opening Tip	First FG Attempt	First Field Goal
Game 1 at BOS	Boston	Jayson Tatum (BOS) – MISS	Jaylen Brown (BOS)
Game 2 at BOS	Boston	Jrue Holiday (BOS) – MISS	Derrick White (BOS)
Game 3 at MIA	Miami	Nikola Jovic (MIA) – MISS	Kristaps Porzingis (BOS)

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. New Orleans Pelicans

OKC vs. NOP	Opening Tip	First FG Attempt	First Field Goal
Game 1 at OKC	New Orleans	Brandon Ingram (NOP) – MISS	Chet Holmgren (OKC)
Game 2 at OKC	New Orleans	Jonas Valanciunas (NOP) – MAKE	Jonas Valanciunas (NOP)
Game 3 at NOP	Oklahoma City	Jalen Williams (OKC) – MISS	Brandon Ingram (NOP)

Los Angeles Lakers vs. Denver Nuggets

LAL vs. DEN	Opening Tip	First FG Attempt	First Field Goal
Game 1 at DEN	Denver	Nikola Jokic (DEN) – MAKE	Nikola Jokic (DEN)
Game 2 at DEN	Denver	Michael Porter (DEN) – MAKE	Michael Porter (DEN)
Game 3 at LAL	Los Angeles	Anthony Davis (LAL) – MAKE	Anthony Davis (LAL)
Game 4 at LAL	Los Angeles	D’Angelo Russell (LAL) – MISS	LeBron James (LAL)

There have been a few opening tip patterns in these series, with the home team winning each tip in the Boston vs. Miami and Denver vs. Los Angeles series, and the road team gaining the first possession in each game of the Oklahoma City vs. New Orleans matchup.

With these playoff patterns and the assistance of BestOdds EDGE, let’s take a swing on each of the three first basket opportunities for Monday night.

As always, all selections are accompanied by the best odds.

Kristaps Porzingis – C, Boston Celtics

Kristaps Porzingis lost the opening tip to Miami’s Bam Adebayo in Game 3, but he has gone a collective 5-1 on the tip against Adebayo this season, and he could break the pattern of home teams winning the opening tip in this series.

Throughout the regular season, Porzingis and Adebayo were two of the NBA’s best at the jump at center court, and according to BestOdds EDGE, Porzingis still won 12% more of his tips (80%) than Adebayo (68%).

Recent history tells me to back the home team on the jump, but there’s a longer track record telling me to back Porzingis.

Also, since the beginning of the playoffs, the Heat have played five games (including the Play-In), and they have failed to make the first basket each time.

Assuming that Boston will gain the first possession, I like Porzingis to put points on the board first.

Two of the five first baskets that Miami has allowed have come from opposing centers, the only position to strike twice.

Porzingis tallied four first baskets in his final 11 games of the regular season, and he picked up the first bucket in Game 3.

As the season gets late, Porzingis scores early.

Pick: Porzingis – First Field Goal

Best Odds: (+480) FanDuel

Chet Holmgren – C, Oklahoma City Thunder

The opening tip between OKC’s Chet Holmgren and New Orleans’ Jonas Valanciunas is close on paper.

Valanciunas is 2-1 on the tip against Holmgren in the series, but in their three regular season meetings, Holmgren went 2-1 on the jump ball against Valanciunas, so this one’s going to be a tough call.

The road team has won the tip in each game so far, so I’ll continue to back that trend and take the Thunder to gain early control.

For Oklahoma City, their lone first basket in the first three playoff games was scored by Holmgren in Game 1, and the Thunder sank the first basket in all three of the regular season matchups; Holmgren scoring two of those three first buckets.

The Pelicans have allowed two first baskets in their five playoff games, and both of those baskets were made by opposing centers — Holmgren in Game 1, and Sacramento Kings’ Domantas Sabonis in the Play-In.

BestOdds EDGE tells me that New Orleans allowed 33% of their opposing first baskets to centers (the highest of any position) and that Oklahoma City’s leader in first field goal attempt percentage was Holmgren (30%).

Whether he goes inside or takes a shot from long range, Holmgren decorates the scoreboard first in Game 4.

Pick: Holmgren – First Field Goal

Best Odds: (+600) BetMGM

Nikola Jokic – C, Denver Nuggets

In seven total meetings between the Los Angeles Lakers and Denver Nuggets (including postseason), Nikola Jokic holds an opening tip record of 4-3 over Anthony Davis.

Davis has been a little banged up lately, dealing with a wrist issue, and his injuries may have played a role in his dwindling tip numbers later in the regular season.

According to BestOdds EDGE, Davis won 58% of his opening tips, but has only won 56% over his final 18 jumps.

For Jokic, he won 61% of his opening tips in the regular season, but he has won 72% of his final 18 jumps.

Jokic won both tips at home so far, and he appears to be healthier and in better form at the moment, so it’s hard not to back the likely MVP at center court.

The Lakers allowed most of their opposing first baskets to point guards this season, but with Jamal Murray’s ‘day-to-day’ status, I’ll fade Denver’s point guard on the first basket tonight.

Los Angeles allowed the first points in three of five playoff games, and of those three first scorers, two were centers — Jokic in Game 1, and Valanciunas in the Play-In Tournament.

The Nuggets can send the Lakers home tonight, and to kick off the potential elimination of LA, I’d expect a high-conversion bucket in the paint from Jokic to get it started.

Pick: Jokic – First Field Goal

Best Odds: (+450) BetMGM

When parlayed together, these three centers provide a big potential payout at BetMGM.

First Basket Parlay Legs – BetMGM	Odds
Kristaps Porzingis – Boston Celtics	+425
Chet Holmgren – Oklahoma City Thunder	+600
Nikola Jokic – Denver Nuggets	+450
First Field Goal Parlay Odds	+20112

If all three centers connect on the first basket, a $10 wager would payout $2,021.25!