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Best Player Props For Mavericks vs. Celtics | NBA Finals Game 5


Thomas Snodgrass

Updated: Jun 17, 2024

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The Boston Celtics lead the NBA Finals over the Dallas Mavericks, three games to one.

Boston won the first three games of the series, and covered the spread in the first three games, winning by an average scoring margin of 10.7 points.

For Game 4 on Friday, I was one of the many that believed the Celtics would continue their postseason dominance and sweep the Mavs in the Finals.

That didn’t happen.

In Dallas’ monster Game 4 win, they were very efficient on offense, shooting 50.5% from the floor and only turning the ball over eight times.

On the defensive side, the Maverick’s held the Celtics to only a 36.2% shooting percentage, and won the rebound battle; a hilarious 65 to 39.

The 36.2% shooting from Boston was the lowest shooting percentage allowed by Dallas in all 21 of the Mavericks’ playoff games.

As great as Dallas played, and as poorly as Boston played, Game 4 was just a weird contest that saw two unsustainable performances from both sides.

The Celtics were very close to closing out this series and winning their first NBA title since 2008, and after what I saw on Friday, it just seemed like Boston was throwing the game just so they could win the title at TD Garden.

That’s just my two cents, but back to reality.

Tonight, in Boston, the Celtics’ deeper talent in their starting five should step up and close out this series, and Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown must bring their A Game after their collective 7-for-22 shooting performance on Friday.

Let’s take a look at some NBA player props for Game 5 of the NBA Finals, and as always, with the best odds.

Jayson Tatum – PF, Boston Celtics

As I previously mentioned, Tatum and Brown combined for 22 field goal attempts in Game 4.

In Game 5, I’m expecting Tatum and Brown to take at least 22 field goal attempts each.

Tatum only played 27 minutes in Game 4, and he has now scored less than 20 points in three of four NBA Finals contests.

Tatum recorded 26 shot attempts in Game 3, scoring a 2024 NBA Finals personal-best 31 points, and I’m expecting him to return to that high-volume form tonight.

Typically, Monday is the day of the week when business picks up, and the same goes for Tatum.

Here’s a look at Tatum’s regular season splits by day of the week.

DayTatum’s FGA/GameTatum’s FG%Tatum’s PPG

Tatum averages more shot attempts and a higher shooting percentage on Mondays, resulting in him averaging more points on Monday than any other day.

In three Monday playoff games, Tatum has averaged a decent 26.3 points per game.

Tatum is the opposite of Garfield, he loves Mondays, and with a full workload of 40+ minutes, I’m expecting him to put up a number tonight.

Pick: Tatum – OVER 27.5 Points

Best Odds: (-102) FanDuel

Jaylen Brown – SF, Boston Celtics

Jaylen Brown averaged 23 points per game in the regular season, and he averaged a high of 27 points per game — on Mondays!

One of the reasons why the Celtics duo of Tatum and Brown scored so many points on Mondays was because Boston finished the regular season with a record of 9-5 on Monday contests, and those tougher games pushed the Celtics duo to keep on scoring.

The Celtics and Mavericks met on Monday, January 22nd, and in that meeting, Brown went 13-of-22 from the floor, tallying 34 points in a 119-110 Boston win.

Tatum led the Celtics with 39 points in that January contest, but he went to the free throw line 19 times, connecting on 15 of those free shots.

If this “Monday Analysis” is too much of a reach for you, how about this?

Simply put, Brown has scored 25+ points in eight of 18 playoff games (44.4%), and is averaging 24.1 points per game this postseason.

In a potential NBA Finals-clinching game at home, I’d expect Brown to get enough shot volume to hit the over on his points prop.

Pick: Brown – OVER 24.5 Points

Best Odds: (-110) FanDuel

Luka Doncic – G, Dallas Mavericks

The Mavericks crushed the Celtics by 38 points in Game 3, and the game was over long before that final buzzer buzzed, and the lopsided nature of that contest led to Luka Doncic to only play 33 minutes.

Doncic still finished with 29 points, five rebounds, and five assists, but considering that Dallas still has their backs against the wall, I’m expecting Doncic to play 40+ minutes and play aggressively in front of that Boston crowd.

In 21 playoff games, Doncic has recorded seven triple-doubles, which is a triple-double in 33.3% of postseason games, and Doncic could go for No. 8 tonight.

The beauty of prop bets is that the outcome of the game is irrelevant.

Doncic is averaging 29.5 points, 8.0 rebounds, and 5.8 assists per game in the NBA Finals, and for the Mavericks to make an improbable push for a title, they’ll need Doncic to lead the way.

Pick: Doncic – To Record A Triple-Double

Best Odds: (+450) BetMGM

Kyrie Irving – G, Dallas Mavericks

There’s a lot of animosity between Kyrie Irving and this Boston crowd. Irving’s tenure with the club didn’t go too well, and now, they’re letting him hear it at TD Garden.

Irving averaged just 14 points in Games 1 and 2, both games played in Boston, but in Games 3 and 4 down in Dallas, Irving averaged 28 points.

The energy produced by Celtics fans appears to have cut Irving’s offensive production in half, and I’m leaning on Boston’s crowd to keep it up in Game 5.

Irving’s points prop is set at 23.5, and since he has failed to hit 24 points in 14 of 21 playoff games, I feel more comfortable backing the under on Kyrie’s points tonight.

The odds of -104 on the under carries an implied probability of 50.9% chance, but considering that Irving has not scored 24 points in 67% of postseason games this year, I like those odds.

If the Mavericks want to win, they’ll lean on Doncic, not Irving.

Pick: Irving – UNDER 23.5 Points

Best Odds: (-104) FanDuel


About the author

A fan of both the Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers, which is rare! Thomas provides sports betting content with the intent to educate and enter...

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