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MLB Wild Card Prop Bets | Tuesday Oct. 3


Thomas Snodgrass

Updated: Oct 2, 2023

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After a grueling six months, 12 teams have found their way into MLB’s October schedule!

The MLB Wild Card round will kick off the Postseason with four matchups on Tuesday.

The Texas Rangers and Tampa Bay Rays will get the MLB playoffs rolling at 3:08 PM ET.

There are plenty of stars to watch in this game, including Rangers’ shortstop Corey Seager.

Seager batted .327 with 33 home runs and 96 RBI and produced a MVP-like 1.013 OPS in 119 games.

This game is followed by the Toronto Blue Jays and Minnesota Twins at 4:38 PM ET.

The Blue Jays found their way into the playoffs in 2023, the third playoff team for the AL East, and they should not be taken lightly.

Toronto’s lineup is full of explosive bats, with shortstop Bo Bichette heating up at the right time. Bichette hit .379 (11-for-29) in the final week of the regular season.

The Arizona Diamondbacks and Milwaukee Brewers continue the playoff action at 7:08 PM ET.

Keep an eye on the Diamondbacks’ dynamic rookie outfielder Corbin Carroll.

Carroll became the first player in MLB history to hit 25 home runs and steal 50 bases in his rookie season.

Finishing off the slate on Tuesday is the Miami Marlins and Philadelphia Phillies at 8:08 PM ET.

This matchup should have some extra spice being an NL East rivalry.

Marlins second baseman Luis Arraez won his second consecutive batting title, hitting .354, but made history by being the first player to win consecutive batting titles in separate leagues.

Let’s sift through this batch of stars to find some solid prop bets for this Wild Card Tuesday.

Nathaniel Lowe – 1B, Texas Rangers

Lowe’s OPS against lefties is just .643, but against righties, he’s produced an OPS of .833.

That’s quite a large difference in his splits.

Thankfully, for Lowe, right handed pitcher Tyler Glasnow will be on the mound for Tampa Bay.

With Marcus Semien and Corey Seager hitting ahead of him, Lowe should see a few at-bats with men on base, giving Lowe an opportunity to cash in for the Rangers.

Glasnow has not pitched well of late either, allowing 10 runs combined in his last 14.1 innings pitched (three starts).

The postseason has not been kind to Glasnow as well, as the righty has a career 5.75 ERA across 40.2 innings of playoff baseball.

Pick: Lowe – To Record an RBI

Best Odds: (+270) DraftKings

Brandon Belt – 1B/DH, Toronto Blue Jays

Bo Bichette’s bat has been hot for the Blue Jays, but Brandon Belt has had a late-season surge.

Over his last 30 games, Belt has hit a respectable .287 and has clubbed 11 home runs.

Belt only hit eight home runs in his first 73 games, so the veteran is certainly driving the ball much better.

The opposing Minnesota Twins will send righty Pablo Lopez to the mound.

Lopez has also pitched poorly of late, allowing 11 earned runs in his last 15.1 innings pitched.

Home field advantage may not be in the cards for Lopez either as the righty sports a 4.21 ERA at home compared to a 3.10 ERA on the road.

As long as Belt is belting it, I’m backing him.

Pick: Belt – OVER 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI

Best Odds: (+120) DraftKings

Brandon Pfaadt – P, Arizona Diamondbacks

Pfaadt recorded at least five strikeouts in 10 of his 19 starts this season, and the rookie pitcher struck out 22 batters in his final 15.1 innings of the regular season.

Although his results have been iffy, the strikeouts are there.

Pfaadt will make his first ever MLB Postseason start against the Milwaukee Brewers, a team that recorded a 23.2 strikeout percentage.

Pfaadt struck out eight batters in each of his final two starts against the New York Yankees and Chicago White Sox.

The Yankees had a 23.9 K% and the White Sox had a 23.8 K%.

I think Pfaadt can pick up at least five K’s against the swing happy Brew Crew.

Pick: Pfaadt – OVER 4.5 Strikeouts

Best Odds: (+110) DraftKings

Nick Castellanos – OF, Philadelphia Phillies

The Marlins will send lefthander Jesus Luzardo to the hill, and that makes for a good matchup for lefty-masher Nick Castellanos.

Castellanos’ left/right splits:

  • Vs. Lefty: .324 AVG, .930 OPS
  • Vs. Righty: .252 AVG. .733 OPS

Clearly a better hitter against southpaws.

Castellanos also prefers to hit at his home park in Philly, as evidenced by his home/road splits.

  • At Home: .304 AVG., .899 OPS
  • On Road: .240 AVG., .678 OPS

Castellanos will be facing a lefty at home, so he should be looking to drive the ball into an outfield gap somewhere.

Luzardo has pitched much worse on the road, recording an opponent batting average of .276 on the road compared to just .216 at home.

Far from the pitching-friendly confines down in Miami, Luzardo could get rocked on Tuesday.

Batting in the middle of this Philly lineup should give Castellanos plenty of run scoring opportunities.

Pick: Castellanos – To Record an RBI
Best Odds: (+185) DraftKings


About the author

A fan of both the Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers, which is rare! Thomas provides sports betting content with the intent to educate and enter...

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