bestodds logo

2024 MLB Playoffs Betting Odds

Thomas Snodgrass

Updated: Mar 26, 2024

Loading...

To be, or not to be in the MLB playoffs, that is the question.

Now that MLB Spring Training has come to a close, all 30 clubs have a good idea of what they have to work with over the six-month, 162-game grind that is the MLB season.

Now, bettors have know what these clubs will be working with, too.

The makeup for the MLB playoffs is simple, each of the National League and American League will send six teams to the postseason: three division winners and three wild card teams.

In 2023, there were some interesting values on the board for MLB playoff bets, both in terms to make the playoffs or miss the playoffs.

Of the 12 teams that appeared in last season’s playoff picture, half of them carried odds of even money or better entering Spring Training, including the Arizona Diamondbacks (+440), Miami Marlins (+430), Milwaukee Brewers (+100), Minnesota Twins (+120), Texas Rangers (+205), and Baltimore Orioles (+350).

There was money to be made on playoff party crashers.

When it comes to the 18 clubs that missed the chance to dance, the Cleveland Guardians (+122), New York Mets (+360), New York Yankees (+390), San Diego Padres (+320), Seattle Mariners (+186), and St. Louis Cardinals (+168) provided value on those sent home early.

2024 MLB Playoff Odds

In alphabetical order, here are the best odds for each club to make or miss the postseason in 2024 at the outset of Spring Training.

MLB TeamBest Odds To MAKE PlayoffsBest Odds To MISS Playoffs
Arizona Diamondbacks+120 FanDuel-140 Caesars
Atlanta Braves-1400 bet365+1100 Caesars
Baltimore Orioles-230 FanDuel+185 DraftKings
Boston Red Sox+330 FanDuel-360 DraftKings
Chicago Cubs+100 FanDuel+110 Caesars
Chicago White Sox+2200 Caesars-10000 DraftKings
Cincinnati Reds+180 FanDuel-200 bet365
Cleveland Guardians+250 bet365-260 Caesars
Colorado Rockies+7000 FanDuel-15000 Caesars
Detroit Tigers+185 DraftKings-190 Caesars
Houston Astros-400 bet365+360 DraftKings
Kansas City Royals+460 FanDuel-550 DraftKings
Los Angeles Angels+1100 bet365-1400 DraftKings
Los Angeles Dodgers-2500 DraftKings+1800 Caesars
Miami Marlins+340 FanDuel-330 bet365
Milwaukee Brewers+330 bet365-440 FanDuel
Minnesota Twins-160 Caesars+138 FanDuel
New York Mets+190 FanDuel-225 DraftKings
New York Yankees-240 DraftKings+225 Caesars
Oakland Athletics+7000 FanDuel-20000 DraftKings
Philadelphia Phillies-235 DraftKings+180 FanDuel
Pittsburgh Pirates+700 bet365-650 FanDuel
San Diego Padres+155 DraftKings-162 FanDuel
San Francisco Giants+145 bet365-180 DraftKings
Seattle Mariners-135 bet365+130 Caesars
St. Louis Cardinals+105 DraftKings-105 bet365
Tampa Bay Rays+130 bet365-150 Caesars
Texas Rangers-170 Caesars+160 bet365
Toronto Blue Jays-125 DraftKings+130 bet365
Washington Nationals+1800 DraftKings-3300 Caesars

Let’s examine a few clubs to make or miss the postseason in 2024, with an eye on even money or better values.

To Make The Playoffs

Arizona Diamondbacks (+120)

The Diamondbacks only won 84 games in 2023, but they did win the National League pennant in 2023, so I’m more bullish on this club than the oddsmakers appear to be.

With odds of greater than +400 to make the playoffs last season, Arizona certainly surprised the baseball-betting public.

Much of that success could be attributed to the D’Backs NL Rookie of the Year, outfielder Corbin Carroll.

Carroll batted .285 with an .868 OPS and was the first rookie in MLB history to record 25 home runs and 50 stolen bases.

This season, Carroll will be joined in the lineup by some of Arizona’s regular everyday bats, including Christian Walker (.258, 33 HR, 103 RBI), Ketel Marte (.276, 25 HR, 82 RBI), and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (.261, 24 HR, 82 RBI).

In an effort to add some runs, the Diamondbacks added third baseman Eugenio Suarez (.232, 22 HR, 96 RBI) in a trade with the Seattle Mariners, and signed two complementary free agent bats in Joc Pederson (.235, 15 HR, 51 RBI) and Randal Grichuk (.267, 16 HR, 44 RBI).

Those new names should put more thunder in the lineup and vault Arizona up the home run rankings, as they finished 22nd in long balls in 2023.

Arizona’s starting rotation features a solid trio of Zac Gallen (17-9, 3.47 ERA), Merrill Kelly (12-8, 3.29 ERA), and Eduardo Rodriguez (13-9, 3.30 ERA) and if youngsters like Brand Pfaadt or Tommy Henry take a step forward, this could be one of the deeper rotations in the NL.

The San Diego Padres are going backwards, the San Francisco Giants are still in a state of flux, and the Colorado Rockies are still rebuilding.

As arguably the second-best team in the LA Dodger-dominated NL West, the Diamondbacks could be involved in the Wild Card picture again in 2023.

Cleveland Guardians (+250)

The Cleveland Guardians were 76-86 last season, and their disappointments were headlined by their lack of offense.

Cleveland finished 27th in the MLB in runs scored in 2023, finished dead-last in home runs with 124, and their team slugging percentage was a measly .381, 29th in the MLB.

A team doesn’t need to hit dingers to win ball games, just ask the 2015 World Series Champion Kansas City Royals. They only hit 139 home runs in the regular season and still won 95 games.

Also, a team doesn’t need to win 95 games to make the playoffs.

I’m expecting a natural regression to the mean for the Guardians offense in 2024.

Cleveland’s offense still features enough quality hitters, including Jose Ramirez, Josh Naylor, Andres Gimenez, and Steven Kwan.

An emergence from one of the young middle infielders such as Gabriel Arias, Brayan Rocchio, or Tyler Freeman could provide a nice boost.

I’ve got my eye on first baseman prospect Kyle Manzardo, too.

The lefty swinger came over in the deal that sent pitcher Aaron Civale to the Tampa Bay Rays, and Manzardo could provide the thump that Cleveland is missing. 

Unfortunately, the Guardians didn’t do much, if anything at all, to address their power woes, but their pitching and defense is their strength.

Barring health issues, Cleveland’s rotation could be the best No. 1 through No. 5 starters in baseball.

The Guards’ Ace, Shane Beiber, only fired 128 innings last season, but still pitched to a respectable 3.80 ERA.

Triston McKenzie suffered even more injury issues than Bieber in 2023, only appearing in four starts and totaling 16 innings pitched. McKenzie threw 191.1 innings of 2.92 ball in 2022, and at just 26-years-old, there’s room for growth.

Getting those two back and healthy in 2024 should be massive for Cleveland in 2024.

Also, the back-end of the Guardians’ rotation is held down by three promising pitchers under the age of 26 with Gavin Williams (3.29 ERA in 82 IP), Tanner Bibee (2.98 ERA in 142 IP), and lefty Logan Allen (3.81 ERA in 125.1 IP).

Throw in closer Emmanuel Clase, who collected 40+ saves for the second consecutive season and has a 2.00 ERA in 238.1 innings, and you’ve got potentially the best run-prevention club in the MLB.

Pittsburgh Pirates (+700)

The Pittsburgh Pirates are trending in the right direction, but the odds of +700 to make the playoffs say they’re not ready.

I’ll attempt to get ahead of the books on this one.

Pittsburgh won 14 more games in 2023 than they did in 2022, and that was without 6-foot-7 shortstop Oneil Cruz in 153 of 162 games.

Cruz is one of the toolsiest (probably not a word) players in the MLB, with a power and speed combo that could be a monstrous addition to the Pirates’ lineup.

If healthy over a full season, 30 home runs and 30 stolen bases is within reach for Cruz.

The Bucco’s lineup will still be anchored by outfielders Bryan Reynolds (.263, 24 HR, 84 RBI) and Jack Suwinski (.224, 26 HR, 74 RBI), and Gold Glove-winning third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes (.271, 15 HR, 61 RBI).

The foundation for a respectable lineup is in place.

The Pirates’ rotation is the biggest question mark.

Mitch Keller (13-9, 4.21 ERA) is the current ace of the Pittsburgh pitching staff, and Keller appears to be getting better incrementally year after year. The Pirates will need Keller to be even better in 2024.

Two lefties, Martin Perez and Marco Gonzales, were brought in to fortify the Bucs’ rotation.

Pittsburgh’s bullpen is deep and should be able to shut down more close ball games this season.

Relief ace David Bednar (39 saves, 2.00 ERA) will hold down the ninth, and the eighth inning role will go to recent acquisition Aroldis Chapman.

The Pirates have an outside shot at winning the National League Central as the division appears to be up for grabs in 2024.

With fellow division rivals (Cubs, Cardinals, Brewers, Reds) not making any major alterations from the 2023 edition of their clubs, the Bucs should be able to get above the .500 mark.

At +700 for Pittsburgh to make the playoffs, those are odds worth taking a swing at.

To Miss The Playoffs

St. Louis Cardinals (-105)

Sticking in the NL Central, I’m not viewing the St. Louis Cardinals as a playoff team in 2024.

The Cardinals biggest offseason addition was 34-year-old right hander Sonny Gray (8-8, 2.79 ERA), and while Gray will immediately step in as the ace, there is not much behind him in the rotation.

St. Louis also brought back former Cardinal Lance Lynn (13-11, 5.73 ERA) and Kyle Gibson (15-9, 4.73 ERA) to the rotation, joining Miles Mikolas (9-13, 4.78 ERA).

The 36-year-old Lynn is in the twilight of his career, the 36-year-old Gibson is an innings eater that compiled a decent number of wins on a strong Baltimore club in 2023, and 35-year-old Mikolas is a pitch-to-contact right hander that has been up-and-down his whole career.

This aging rotation could get shelled.

The lineup is also getting old.

St. Louis’ lineup is still built around 36-year-old first baseman Paul Goldschmidt and 33-year-old Nolan Arenado.

Both sluggers took a step back last season, and while they’re still solid contributors, they could both be on the back nine of their careers.

Time has caught up with the Cards.

St. Louis finished last in the NL Central in 2023, and they don’t appear much better in 2024.

Minnesota Twins (+138)

The Minnesota Twins won 87 games last season, and that was enough to win the AL Central division, but that win total was still less than all three AL Wild Card teams (Rays: 99 wins, Rangers: 90 wins, Blue Jays: 89 wins).

A step back for Minnesota in 2024 would not be surprising.

Their best pitcher from last season, Sonny Gray, is now in a Cardinals uniform, which makes their de facto ace Pablo Lopez.

Lopez is a solid punch out pitcher that posted a respectable 3.66 ERA in 2023, but from a run-prevention standpoint, he may not be the best option to headline this staff considering he allowed a career-high 24 home runs last season.

Lopez’ career-high 29.2% strikeout rate may not be sustainable either.

Outside of Lopez, the Twins are asking for a collection of pitchers to step up and fill out the rotation.

Minnesota had the second-best ERA from starting pitchers as a team last season, and they should be dropping down from that lofty ranking this year.

When it comes to offense, the Twins were above league average in several categories, notably their 12-best on-base percentage of .326, but they were still 21st in team batting average (.243) and held the highest strikeout rate in the MLB (26.6%).

Big time swing-and-miss players like Byron Buxton (31.4 K%), Matt Wallner (31.5%), and Trevor Larnach (34.0 K%) can end up doing more harm than good.

The AL has some very competitive teams, specifically in the AL East and AL West, and Minnesota has too much work left to do before they get back to the playoffs.

New York Yankees (+225)

To say the Yankees will miss the playoffs may be a stretch, but after all, this team won only 82 games in 2023 and missed the postseason.

The biggest changes in 2024 have come from the lineup, which certainly needed improvement after their team batting average of .227 was better than only the Oakland Athletics.

In comes Juan Soto (.275, 35 HR, 109 RBI) and Alex Verdugo (.264, 13 HR, 54 RBI) to assist the New York offense.

Soto is a big addition to pair with Aaron Judge in the middle of the lineup and Verdugo is a decent veteran bat that can swing near the top or bottom of the order.

With Gleyber Torres, Giancarlo Stanton, Anthony Rizzo, DJ LeMahieu, and Anthony Volpe helping to round out the lineup, the Bronx Bombers should be able to score plenty of runs.

A team needs to keep runs of the board, too.

The Yankees starting pitchers produced an ERA of 4.44 in 2023, the 18th-best in baseball, and other than the addition of Marcus Stroman (10-9, 3.95 ERA), not much has changed.

Cy Young-winner Gerrit Cole had one of the best seasons of his career and he will need to keep up that high standard again.

New York’s bullpen had the best collective ERA from relievers in 2023, and if that number falls back, it could be a point of frustration for manager Aaron Boone.

If a Cy Young-winner and the best collective bullpen in run-prevention can only lead to 82 wins, I’m not expecting much more this season.

Ultimately, there are only six AL teams that make the playoffs, and right now I don’t have the Yanks there.

The Houston Astros, Texas Rangers, and Seattle Mariners all look like better teams to me, and I see three representatives of the AL West in the playoffs.

I still think Baltimore is the team to beat in the AL East, and I wouldn’t count out the Tampa Bay Rays or Toronto Blue Jays either.

And someone from the AL Central has to claim a playoff spot!

The Bronx Bombers are just one Aaron Judge or Juan Soto injury away from being average.

The Yankees aren’t a shoe-in for a playoff spot right now.

MLB Playoff Odds Betting Strategy

MLB Playoff betting is all about being able to predict the future.

We don’t have any secrets to guarantee the future, but we have some thoughts and ideas about being a successful futures bettor.

When betting on MLB Playoff odds and predicting whether a team will or will not make the playoffs, you must invest some time and effort into doing your research.

There are some amazing resources available to help with this process, we like to start with FanGraphs.com.

Finding sources who provide predictive data on how many games a team will win is a great way to give yourself an understanding of whether they have a realistic shot at a playoff spot.

Last year, the Texas Rangers finished with 90 wins and 72 losses. In the very least, we have an idea of how many wins it takes to make the playoffs.

The secret sauce is obviously up to you. We can find data telling us what teams are “expected” to do this year based on other people’s algorithms, but what do you think?

The New York Mets spent hundreds of millions of dollars prior to the 2023 season, including a two-year, $86.6 million contract on Justin Verlander.

At the start of the year, the Mets were +360 to miss the playoffs.

In the end, New York and their high payroll finished with just 75 wins, and bettors that faded the free agency buzz received a solid payout on the Mets to miss the playoffs.

How To Bet On MLB Playoff Odds

If you live in a State or Province that has legalized sports betting, then every legal operator licensed in your area will offer this type of MLB futures bet.

Once you have navigated to the MLB section of your sportsbook, simply click on the futures tab.

You should see this bet and several other long-term MLB futures bets, such as League MVPs, teams to make the World Series and others.

Most MLB Playoff Appearances All-Time

FranchiseTotal Appearances
New York Yankees58
Los Angeles Dodgers37
St. Louis Cardinals32
Atlanta Braves29
Oakland Athletics29
San Francisco Giants27
Boston Red Sox25
Chicago Cubs21
Minnesota Twins18
Pittsburgh Pirates17
Houston Astros17

Always Shop Around

Spending time analyzing data and making the most educated selections possible based on the data presented is always recommended for sports betting.

However, even the sharpest of gamblers will agree that if you aren’t shopping around for your Best Odds when you place a bet, you are not taking advantage of the most advantageous tool available for bettors of all skill levels.

The sportsbooks have tepid expectations for the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2024.

Here’s the odds for the Buccos to make the playoffs this season, with values across multiple sportsbooks.

TeamDraftKingsFanDuelCaesarsbet365
Pittsburgh Pirates+550+440+550+700

If you are one of the bettors that believe Pittsburgh has a chance to get into the playoffs, shopping around for the Best Odds on the Pirates to play baseball in October makes sense.

The difference between a +440 at FanDuel and a +700 at bet365 is significant.

When we don’t shop around and don’t play the Best Odds available for the bet we want to make, we just aren’t giving ourselves the best chance to be a profitable sports bettor long term.

Loading...

About the author

A fan of both the Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers, which is rare! Thomas provides sports betting content with the intent to educate and enter...

[Read full bio]
chevron up