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MLB Player Props For Thursday | Apr. 4


Thomas Snodgrass

Updated: Apr 4, 2024

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Thursday’s action across the MLB is light, with only six games on the schedule, but those games still offer plenty or prop betting opportunities for all of the baseball bettors out there.

One-third of the action will be the double-header between the Detroit Tigers and New York Mets.

Interestingly, the Tigers are undefeated and the Mets are completely defeated after four games each, so this double-feature at Citi Field could really make the Tigers’ start to the season or break the Mets.

It’s a long season of 162 games, but if Detroit sweeps the double-header, New York would be 0-6, and that’s just plain ugly.

At least the Mets haven’t made a series of managerial mistakes that have forced them to use a relief pitcher to hit with the bases loaded in the bottom of the 11th inning, like the Arizona Diamondbacks did yesterday.

It’s the DH era, pitchers shouldn’t hit anymore! Unless the manager moves the starting DH to a position in the field, then that team loses their DH spot and the pitcher has to hit for the remainder of the game. Which is an insane rule.  

While trying to avoid disasters like the one that befell the D-Backs, let’s check out this six-pack of MLB action and find some valuable player props.

As always, all player props are paired with the best odds.

Kerry Carpenter – OF, Detroit Tigers

Let’s start with Game 1 of the Tigers-Mets double-header.

In 2023, Detroit outfielder Kerry Carpenter became a surprising contributor to the middle of the Tigers’ lineup, batting .278 with 20 home runs and 64 RBI in only 118 games played.

In 2024, Carpenter is off to a solid start, going 4-for-10 with a home run.

The New York Mets have tabbed former-Milwaukee Brewers pitcher Adrian Houser to kick off the twin bill on the mound.

Houser produced an okay 4.12 ERA in 2023 in 111.1 innings of work, but his .273 opponent batting average created a lot of traffic on the basepath, which can be a tricky situation for a pitch-to-contact pitcher.

Last season, Carpenter was a .310 hitter in day games, compared to a .251 hitter in night games, so it would appear that the lefty swinger sees the ball better in the daylight.

Carpenter is batting third in the order for Game 1, so if speedy leadoff man Parker Meadows can get on to lead off the game, Carpenter could put a run on the board early.

Houser allowed a .305 opponent average and recorded a 5.14 ERA in the first inning in 2023.

As another side bet, I’d take OVER 0.5 runs in the first inning at -110 at Caesars.

You can find more information on first inning scoring stats and records on BestOdds’ NRFI Stats page.

Pick: Carpenter – OVER 0.5 RBI

Best Odds: (+165) DraftKings

Bryan Reynolds – OF, Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pittsburgh Pirates’ switch-hitting outfielder Bryan Reynolds has crushed the Washington Nationals in his career, hitting .352 with a 1.047 OPS and collecting six home runs and 24 RBI in 25 games against the Nats.

Josiah Gray will be Washington’s starting pitcher on Thursday, and Reynolds is 4-for-8 (.500) with a home run and three RBI against Gray, so I’m expecting more of the same.

Reynolds is off to a decent start, picking up three multi-hit games in his first six contests and driving in eight runs.

The Nationals defeated Pittsburgh yesterday, but in the process, they used both of their most well-established relievers Hunter Harvey and Kyle Finnegan, which could potentially hamstring Washington’s pitching if Gray gets chased from the game early.

Gray failed to go past the fifth inning in 13 of his 30 starts in 2023, and he only stuck around for four innings in his last start against the Cincinnati Reds, allowing eight hits and seven runs.

The Bucs’ bats should bounce-back in the Nation’s Capital, and I’m voting for Reynolds to lead the Pirates on Thursday.

Pick: Reynolds – OVER 1.5 Hits

Best Odds: (+200) FanDuel

Paul Goldschmidt – 1B, St. Louis Cardinals

St. Louis Cardinals’ first baseman Paul Goldschmidt has collected five RBI in his first seven games, and now at 36-years-old, he’s still a main offensive focus for St. Louis.

One thing that has remained a constant throughout Goldschmidt’s career is his ability to mash left-handed pitchers.

Goldschmidt batted .295 versus lefties in 2023 compared to just .259 versus righties, and today, the Cardinals face the Miami Marlins’ southpaw Ryan Weathers.

Weathers has bounced between the bullpen and the starting rotation in his career, but with a litany of injuries decimating the Marlins’ rotation, Weathers has been tasked with being a starter once again.

In his first outing this season, Weathers allowed seven hits and three runs in only four innings in a loss to the Pirates, so he may not be stretched out enough to go deep in the ball game.

Not only has Goldschmidt been a better swinger against lefties, he’s also hit better in day games, batting .302 in day games in his career.

Also, in 2023, he hit .284 in the day compared to .261 at night with an OPS of .888 being 115 points higher than later contests (.773 OPS).

Pick: Goldschmidt – OVER 0.5 RBI

Best Odds: (+170) BetMGM

Seth Lugo – SP, Kansas City Royals

2024 is the ninth season of Seth Lugo’s career, and 2023 was his first successful season as a starting pitcher after years in the Mets’ bullpen.

Last season with the San Diego Padres, Lugo recorded a 3.57 ERA in 146.1 innings, and in his 26 starts, he produced 17 quality starts.

A quality start is six or more innings pitched with three or less earned runs allowed.

After years as a swingman or bullpen arm, Lugo is now a quality starting pitcher.

In his first outing, Lugo went six scoreless innings against the Minnesota Twins, punching out four batters.

On Thursday, Lugo has a meeting with the Chicago White Sox, and the matchup should provide the right-hander with a solid opportunity to rack up some strikeouts.

Yes, the sample size is small, but through five games, the White Sox’ lineup has struck out at a 28% clip (28th in MLB).

Also, Chicago has just a 6.5% walk rate (26th in MLB), showing that the White Sox will swing often and miss often, as evidenced by their .181 team batting average (29th in MLB).

As long as Chicago keeps flailing away in the batter’s box, opposing pitchers should benefit.

Pick: Lugo – OVER 5.5 Strikeouts

Best Odds: (+112) FanDuel


About the author

A fan of both the Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers, which is rare! Thomas provides sports betting content with the intent to educate and enter...

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