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2024 MLB Home Run Leader Odds and Picks

Thomas Snodgrass

Updated: Mar 14, 2024


The MLB leader in home runs in 2023 was Atlanta Braves’ first baseman Matt Olson with 54 round trippers.

Olson has always been a strong candidate to lead the league in homers, with three seasons of 30+ home runs prior to 2023.

Entering the season, Olson’s best odds to lead the league in home runs was +2500 at Caesars.

Olson was tied with teammate Ronald Acuna, New York Yankees’ slugger Giancarlo Stanton, and the San Diego Padres’ Fernando Tatis Jr. with the ninth-shortest odds at 25-1.

Stanton finished with just 24 home runs in 2023 and Tatis finished with only 25 home runs, and Olson finished with 20+ home runs more than five players with the 10 shortest odds.

Philadelphia Phillies designated hitter Kyle Schwarber was the closest to Olson, finishing with 47 home runs.

With Olson leading the league in homers with 25-1 odds, he became the fifth home run leader with odds of 25-1 or greater to lead the league in dingers.

For 2024, here are the 10 players with the shortest odds to lead the MLB in home runs.

PlayerBest Odds To Lead the MLB In HRs
Aaron Judge – New York Yankees+650 FanDuel
Matt Olson – Atlanta Braves+800 FanDuel
Pete Alonso – New York Mets+800 Caesars
Shohei Ohtani – Los Angeles Dodgers+900 BetMGM
Kyle Schwarber – Philadelphia Phillies+1200 Caesars
Yordan Alvarez – Houston Astros+1400 BetMGM
Juan Soto – New York Yankees+1400 FanDuel
Ronald Acuna Jr. – Atlanta Braves+2000 BetMGM
Fernando Tatis Jr. – San Diego Padres+2300 FanDuel
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. – Toronto Blue Jays+2500 bet365

Considering that half of the last 10 home run leaders have carried odds of +2500 or higher, bettors shouldn’t be afraid to throw a dart or two further down the odds board.

Let’s explore some potential home run leaders for the MLB in 2024, with all selections being paired with the best odds.

Home Run Leader Favorites

Aaron Judge – OF, New York Yankees (+650) FanDuel

After Aaron Judge broke the American League record for home runs in a season with 62 in 2022, he hit just 37 home runs in 2023.

A dip in homers is likely from any player that plays in 51 less games than the season prior.

Health has become the focus for Judge, as the 6-foot-7, 282-pound slugger for the New York Yankees recently claimed that his toe injury suffered last season will be “something to monitor for the rest of my career”.

That’s bad news.

The good news is, that when healthy, Judge was still busting the seams off the ball.

In 2023, Judge produced a 64.4% hard hit% and an average exit velocity of 97.6 miles per hour, with both of those metrics being career highs.

That’s saying something for the AL Home Run record-holder.

Ultimately, health will decide how many home runs Judge can accumulate in 2024, and if he plays at least 140 games, he could win the home run title once again.

Matt Olson – 1B, Atlanta Braves (+800) FanDuel

Last season’s home run champ, Matt Olson enters 2024 with the second shortest odds to lead the league in big flies.

Olson has earned his short odds, with a strong track record of not only impressive home run totals, but also his ability to stay on the field.

In the last two years, Olson has played all 162 games, which is rare in today’s game, and in the last five full seasons (discounting the truncated 2020), Olson is averaging 38.4 home runs per season.

Of all at-bats for Olson last season, 7.5% ended with the ball going over the fence; the highest home run percentage of his career.

If Olson can maintain that home run pace, he’ll certainly be near the top of the leaderboard in home runs come October.

Pete Alonso – 1B, New York Mets (+800) Caesars

Aaron Judge may have the AL home run record, but it was Pete Alonso who broke Judge’s home run rookie record in 2019, belting 53 home runs in his first season.

Alonso hasn’t returned to the 50-homer club since, but he certainly knocked on the door last year, clubbing 46 homers.

If Alonso had made more frequent contact last season, he may have finished with a few more long balls, as his batting average plummeted to a career-low .217 and his strikeout percentage jumped from 18.7% in 2022 to 23% in 2023.

In his first four full seasons (sans 2020), Alonso is averaging a monstrous 44 home runs per season.

And in those same four seasons, Alonso is playing an average of 156.8 games per year.

Although Alonso will occasionally swing and miss, he won’t miss games, and a players’ availability is paramount when selecting league leading futures bets.

Home Run Leading Contenders

Juan Soto – OF, New York Yankees (+1400) FanDuel

Juan Soto belted a career-high 35 home runs last season, his final year with the San Diego Padres.

Soto played half of his games in the pitcher-friendly Petco Park last year, and will now play half of his games at the homer-friendly Yankee Stadium in 2024.

Soto’s new home should give him a boost in the home run column.

The one thing that could hurt Soto’s chances of leading the Major Leagues in homers is a wildly excellent skill of drawing walks.

Soto has led the MLB in walks for three consecutive seasons, with 145 walks in 2021, 135 walks in 2022, and 132 walks in 2023.

As effective and beneficial as drawing walks is for Soto’s team, that’s a lot of plate appearances ending without the ball coming off the bat for the young slugger.

Also, the home run leader in the MLB typically has a home run percentage in the 7-to-8% neighborhood, and Soto’s was just 4.9% in 2023.

We’ll see how much Soto’s new home park plays a factor on that metric.

Like Olson, Soto rarely misses games, in fact, he didn’t miss a single one in 2023.

If Soto can play nearly every game once again, with half of those games in the Bronx, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him join the 40-homer club in 2024.

Shohei Ohtani – DH, Los Angeles Dodgers (+900) BetMGM

Shohei Ohtani didn’t lead the Majors in home runs last year, but he did lead the American League.

It was the second 40+ homer season for the Japanese phenom, and he hit 44 homers while only playing in 135 games.

After injuring his pitching arm, Ohtani will be strictly limited to the batter’s box in 2024, and without having to pull double-duty, who knows what Ohtani could accomplish with a singular focus?

One statistic that measures the power of a player’s bat is ISO (isolated power), and simply put, ISO is slugging percentage minus batting average.

Ohtani led the league with a .350 ISO, and the home run leader, Matt Olson, finished second with a .321 ISO.

Here’s a look at the top 10 ISO leaders in 2023:

BatterISO2023 HR Total
Shohei Ohtani.35044
Matt Olson.32154
Corey Seager.29633
Pete Alonso.28746
Marcell Ozuna.28440
Luis Robert.27838
Kyle Schwarber.27747
Mookie Betts.27239
Jake Burger.26834
Max Muncy.26336

Anyway, back to Ohtani.

After six seasons playing for the Los Angeles Angels, Ohtani will remain in LA, only now with the Dodgers, and the lineup protection from two former MVP-winners, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman, should give him more hittable pitches to swing at.

Ohtani led the Major Leagues in slugging percentage in 2023, and he is a strong candidate to lead the Majors in home runs in 2024.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. – 1B, Toronto Blue Jays (+2500) bet365

Toronto Blue Jays’ slugger Vladimir Guerrero Jr. led the Major Leagues in home runs in 2021 with 48, tying Kansas City Royals catcher Sal Perez.

Since then, Guerrero has seen a dip in homers.

In 2022, Guerrero hit 32 home runs, and in 2023, he only hit 26.

Guerrero’s strikeout percentage was a career-low 14.7% last season and his average exit velocity of 92.1 miles per hour is right in line with his career marks, so what gives?

When Guerrero led the Majors in home runs in 2021, he hit 31 in just 79 games at home, but 38 of their “home” games were played in Dunedin, Florida, at the Blue Jays spring training site.

Then, Toronto played their home games at Sahlen Field in Buffalo, New York up until July 30th of that year, when they finally returned to the Rogers Centre.

Is it the new alterations to the outfield wall at the Rogers Centre in Toronto that’s sapping Guerrero’s power?

Last season, Guerrero put 16 balls in the seats of away stadiums and only 10 at home, and the year prior, he belted 13 road homers and 19 at home in the “old” Rogers Centre.

So, maybe it is the new dimensions?

Either way, the metrics don’t signal toward any dropoff in power for Guerrero, just a drop in the all-important home run column.

All things considered, Guerrero is only 25-years old, so there could still be room for improvement.

For a man that has already led the Majors in home runs before, that’s a scary prospect.

Home Run Leading Longshots

Spencer Torkelson – 1B, Detroit Tigers (+8000) Caesars

The Detroit Tigers have been rebuilding their ballclub for a few years now, and one of the cornerstones of that rebuild is first baseman Spencer Torkelson.

In 2022, Torkelson, the former first-overall pick in the 2020 MLB Draft, scared the entire Detroit front office when he only hit eight home runs in 110 games in his rookie season.

Torkelson quelled those fears in 2023, blasting 31 home runs, which is a solid number to reach for any 23-year old player.

There were marked improvements across the board for Torkelson in nearly every statistical category, and any further improvements in 2024 could lead to Torkelson being the first Tiger to swat 40+ homers in a season since Miguel Cabrera in 2013.

As the 2023 season progressed, so did Torkelson, and in the final two months of the regular season, Torkelson smacked 16 of his 31 home runs (9 in August, 7 in September).

If Torkelson can start 2024 where he left off and average eight or so home runs a month, he would finish in the high 40s, and he could hit enough to claim a home run title.

Julio Rodriguez – OF, Seattle Mariners (+8000) bet365

Rodriguez is a five tool player, but for this argument, we only need to focus on one tool: power.

In just his second season in the MLB, Rodriguez put 32 big flies in the seats, and at only 23-years-old, Rodriguez could become an even better power hitter as he grows into his 6-foot-3, 230-pound frame.

Rodriguez’ average exit velocity of 92.7 was higher than Kyle Schwarber’s (47 HRs in 2023) and he batted 250 balls in play with exit velocities of 95 or more miles per hour; good for third in the league behind only Rafael Devers of the Boston Red Sox (252) and Ronald Acuna Jr. (310).

So, it’s a fact that Rodriquez can make hard contact, the only issue has been where the ball goes off the bat.

Last season, Rodriguez hit the ball on the ground at a 47% clip, and for comparison, Matt Olson had a 38% ground ball rate when he led the bigs in homers last season, and Aaron Judge had a ground ball rate of just 30.4% when he led the Majors in homers in 2022.

Rodriguez’ launch angle was only eight degrees, so if he can lift the ball better in 2024, he could enter the home run champion conversation.

All said, 32 home runs last season for a guy with an eight degree launch angle and a 47% ground ball rate is impressive in its own way.

Oneil Cruz – SS, Pittsburgh Pirates (+15000) bet365

At the time of this writing, Pittsburgh Pirates’ shortstop Oneil Cruz is the home run leader in spring training.

Although home runs in spring training are essentially meaningless, it does give the viewers a glimpse of what could be.

Cruz only played nine games last season before fracturing his ankle in a collision at home plate, but before he went on the IL, he showcased some serious power.

One swing doesn’t make a home run champ, but in 2022, Cruz hit the hardest hit ball in statcast measurement history, blistering a ball off the bat at 122.4 miles per hour.

While Cruz’ 6-foot-7 build profiles as an intriguing power-hitting prospect, his can get long, creating an inefficient bat path.

When he does make contact though, it’s loud.

Cruz has just 19 career home runs in 98 games played, so he’s a deep dive to lead the big leagues in homers.

Over the course of a fully healthy season, the sky’s the limit for Cruz.

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