MLB Public Consensus

Of the 30 teams in Major League Baseball, just four managed to win at least 100 games during the 2022 season.

The 162-game grind can make betting on baseball difficult because teams will go through long winning and losing streaks throughout a six-month season.

Being on the right side of a streak can be a very profitable experience for MLB bettors.

MLB consensus picks information is valuable for those who enjoy betting on America’s pastime.

• Quickly gauge how the general public sees a game
• Spot trends and sharp money plays
• Make more informed decisions with your MLB bets

What Are MLB Consensus Picks?

Consensus pick information tracks the bets made for a specific MLB game.

Sportsbooks today are willing to share information about the number of total bets and the amount of money wagered on specific teams and games.

This information can help a bettor understand how other bettors across the country view and bet on these MLB games.

What is MLB Consensus Bet %

MLB Bet % is the percentage of bets placed on one team in a baseball game.

Example:

Teams	Moneyline Odds	Bet Percentage
Boston Red Sox	+120	42%
New York Yankees	-115	58%

In our example above, we can see that for the Red Sox vs Yankees game, 42% of the moneyline bets are on Boston.

It makes sense that almost 60% of the bets are on the Yankees to win, as the Yankees are a -115 favorite.

It is important to note that when we discuss Bet %, every wager is treated equally. In this case, we aren’t concerned with the amount of money being bet on a team, only the total bets made.

What Is MLB Consensus Handle %?

MLB Handle % is different from Bet % because the handle percentage is only interested in the total amount of money bet on one team.

Example:

Teams	Moneyline Odds	Handle %
Boston Red Sox	+120	54%
New York Yankees	-115	46%

Going back to our Red Sox vs Yankees example, the Handle Percentage shows us that the majority of the money bet on this game is actually on the Red Sox and their +120 odds.

Although 58% of bets were placed on NY to win, 54% of the money has been bet on Boston.

Bet % and Handle % are two stats that compliment each other well. However, It is important to understand the specific information each one is presenting and how they differ from each other.

How To Read MLB Consensus Picks

Once we understand what MLB Bet % and MLB Handle % are, we can easily understand how to read the data when it is presented to us.

Example: MLB Futures – To Win World Series

Teams	Bet Percentage	Handle Percentage
Los Angeles Dodgers	13.6%	13.5%
Houston Astros	11.2%	13.3%
New York Mets	8.0%	7.8%

Looking at our MLB World Series futures data above, we can see the Bet Percentage and the Handle Percentage for the Dodgers, Astros and Mets.

The Dodgers and Mets have almost identical percentages for their total bets and total handle percentages.

However, we can see that there have been a couple of large bets on the Astros since their handle percentage is a couple of points higher than their bet percentage.

How To Use MLB Consensus Picks For Betting

Identifying Sharp Money

The sports betting world is divided into two distinct categories: Sharps and recreational bettors.

Those who are sharp bettors are making a living betting on sports. There is only an extremely small percentage of people who make a living betting on sports.

For the most part, these sharps are considered industry experts. As recreational sports bettors, any chance we can learn and watch how the sharps are betting is a chance for us to get better.

In the case of Bet % and Handle % data, sometimes we are gifted an opportunity to see precisely how the sharp money handicapped a game.

Let’s look at an example of what we mean.

Example Game – Chicago Cubs vs Atlanta Braves

Teams	Moneyline	Bet %	Handle %
CHI Cubs	+125	30%	45%
ATL Braves	-130	70%	55%

Using our example data above, we can see that the Braves are a heavy home favorite against the Cubs. Not surprisingly, 70% of the moneyline bets are on Atlanta to win the game.

However, when we analyze the Handle % and compare that to the Bet %, we can see a difference of 15%.

If the Handle Percentage is 15% higher than the Bet Percentage, this tells us there have been some large bets placed on the Cubs.

Sharp players, those who are betting for a living, are known to make much larger bets than recreational players.

Our example above could indicate that some sharp money is leaning towards the underdog Chicago Cubs, despite 70% of the total tickets being placed on Atlanta.

Fade The Public

Most of us believe that sportsbooks are profitable businesses, and the house will end up ahead in the long run.

If this is indeed the case, there is an argument to be made that, more often than not, the general public gets it wrong.

If we can follow along and see exactly how the betting public is spending their money, we can bet against them when we feel they don’t have it correct.

Understanding MLB Consensus Picks Data

The Bet % and Handle % stats can be very beneficial information tools if we understand how to read the data correctly.

Teams	Opening ML	Current ML	Bet %	Handle %
Texas Rangers	+120	+110	35%	55%
Anaheim Angels	-125	-115	65%	45%

Looking at our table above, we can see that the Texas Rangers have a much higher Handle Percentage than a Bet Percentage.

This alerts us to the possibility of some sharp money being more interested in the Rangers for this game.

However, we must look at the Opening vs the Current moneylines.

The Rangers opened at +120, but the money bet on them has pushed their odds down to +110.

The sharp money may have like Texas at +120 odds, but not nearly as much at +110 odds.

We must understand which way the sharp money is leaning, but it is also important to understand the odds they were betting.

Successful bettors understand that picking teams at the right odds, not just any odds, is the recipe for long-term success.

Always Shop Around

Above, we discuss how following sharp money can be difficult because the goal isn’t just to bet on the same team as sharp money.

The goal is to bet on the same team at the same odds as the sharp money did.

Often, when a sportsbook releases its Bet Percentage and Handle Percentage, there is no longer time to take advantage of the information at that sportsbook.

However, that doesn’t mean the odds you are looking for don’t exist somewhere else.

The single most significant advantage a sports bettor has against the sportsbooks is our ability to shop around and bet using only the Best Odds.

An additional 10% ROI for one particular bet may seem insignificant.

Over time, a 10% increase in your profits might be the difference between being profitable and not.