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Best MLB Strikeout Props Today | Our Daily Picks: July 19

Best MLB Strikeout Props Today | Our Daily Picks: July 19

Author

Malcolm Darnley

Updated: Jul 19, 2024

Over his last five games, Guardians SP Tanner Bibee (5.5 K O/U today) is averaging more than seven strikeouts per game. 

In four of those starts, Bibee has gone OVER 5.5 K’s, which is his total today.

  • Bibee is averaging 7.5 K’s in his last ten starts
  • In his L10, Bibee has an elite K% (31%) and elite SWSTR% (13.69%)
  • All Bibee stats and data available at BestOdds.com/nrfi (100% Free Trial – NO C.C. required) 

Despite his impressive strikeout performances recently, Bibee is still plus money (+128 @FanDuel) to go OVER 5.5 strikeouts. 

What gives?

The San Diego Padres as a team just don’t strike out. 

  • The Padres offense is the only team in MLB that strike out less than 20% of the time. (19.71 K% vs Bibee’s 31% K%) 
  • The Padres have a SWSTR% (swinging strike %) of just over 9%, which is also the lowest in MLB.

FanDuel has Bibee OVER 5.5 at +128. DraftKings agrees with that number and has posted the same 5.5 at +125. The books are aligned on this price.

Give me Bibee and the Plus Moneyline (+128), but it will be fun to see the Padres battle.

Best Strikeout Prop Bets Today

PICK: Tanner Bibee – OVER 5.5 strikeouts (+128) FanDuel
PICK: Zach Eflin – OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (-128) FanDuel

Zach Eflin – SP, Tampa Bay Rays

Tampa Bay visits the New York Yankees tonight. The matchup is Zach Eflin, O4.5 K’s (-128 FD) vs. Gerrit Cole.

In his last start, we loved Cole OVER 5.5 strikeouts. 

This time, DraftKings opened him at 6.5 K’s but have already had to push him to 7.5. (+125 ML for the Over)

7.5 is steep, so we turn our attention to Eflin.

  • In four of his last five starts, the Rays righty has eclipsed 4.5 strikeouts. 
  • The Yankees offense is pretty much league average, striking out 24% of the time.
  • From May 7th – June 11th, Eflin had five starts where he struck out no more than three hitters. Those starts have obviously hurt his overall K% and SWSTR% stats.

The most exciting stat I stumbled across at BestOdds.com/nrfi is that Aaron Judge has struck out nine times in his last 15 at-bats against Eflin.

Give me the OVER!

PICK: Eflin – OVER 4.5 Strikeouts | (-128) FanDuel

Why Bet Strikeout Props?

Like 100 years ago, when dinosaurs were just recently not a thing, people used to do stuff like bet on sports, even though player and game props were not yet invented.

We understand that Ford still deserves credit, even if very few of us are driving Model T’s today.

Just like the Model T, the MLB prop bets available today have evolved significantly since the betting industry first became a thing.

One reason I bet strikeout props and other similar MLB player props is that I find them far more entertaining than traditional MLB bets like runline, moneyline, and totals.

With that in mind, Kevin Gausman is an elite Major League pitcher. 

I don’t know much about his team, the Toronto Blue Jays, but I do know Gausman is very good at what he does.

Anytime the Toronto Blue Jays play, I am far more interested in individual players like Gausman, Vladdy Guerrero Jr., and Bo Bichette than in the outcome of the actual game.

The legalization of sports betting has led to a far more competitive market. Sportsbooks use technology and new types of bets to gain market share and customer loyalty. 

Strikeout Prop betting is just one example of that.

Did I mention it’s a lot of fun? Because it is, and I probably should have mentioned that first.

Where To Place Strikeout Prop Bets

Every respectable online sportsbook allows us to wager on a starting pitcher’s total strikeouts. Sometimes, the bets are hidden in different places or are called different names.

Let’s see where we can quickly place our next strikeout prop bet.

FanDuel Sportsbook

At FanDuel, to find the Strikeout Totals bet, remember to let the Popular tab be your friend.

1. Click the game of your choice.

2. The Strikeouts bet is located under the Popular tab. Scroll down until you see Player Strikeouts.

DraftKings Sportsbook

Finding this bet on the DraftKings site is just as easy as it was on the FanDuel site.

  1. Click the Pitcher Props tab
  2. From there, DK makes it really easy to find the bet called Strikeouts Thrown.

DK Strikeouts Thrown Odds:

Bet365 Sportsbook

The bet365 sportsbook is another experience that makes online strikeout betting super quick and super easy.

  1. Click the game of your choice
  2. Click the Player Props tab
  3. Scroll down, and find the wager called Pitcher Strikeouts. It’s just that easy.

Tools For Strikeout Prop Betting

When the prop betting market first started to expand, very few recreational bettors were realistically able to compete with the sportsbooks because the operators held all the data.

As the industry continues to mature, tools and products are now starting to be developed with the betting public in mind, and not just the huge operators. 

Once businesses realized an opportunity to partner with the recreational betting community and provide the same information supplied to the sportsbooks, the playing field became much more level.

What Is Strikeout PRO

Like a high fastball at the top of the zone or a late-breaking curveball down and away, Strikeout PRO is the great equalizer between recreational bettors and sportsbooks.

In 2024, thanks to something called the internet, we are not short on information. 

However, what makes Strikeout PRO so interesting is that it is a massive information tool, completely focused on just one prop bet.

Every stat, every page, and every section of this tool was designed to make the most informed betting decisions possible and ultimately win more strikeout prop bets.

A few of the stats bettors can find inside the Strikeout PRO tool:

  • Avg. Strikeouts / Game Started
  • Strikeouts / Inning Pitched
  • Strikeout Percentage
  • Team Offense Strikeout Information
  • Detailed Player Profile Cards
  • Pitcher vs Batter: Head-to-Head Data

In a world of information overload, Strikeout PRO is a welcome throwback for its unapologetic straightforward approach.

The Strikeout PRO is good at only one thing and doesn’t pretend to do anything else. 

However, if you are into Strikeout Prop bets, and are looking to become an expert in one specific bet, then you will definitely be into the very niche data provided by Strikeout PRO.

How To Win More Strikeout Prop Bets

The reality is that 90% of the recreational betting market uses sports betting as a complete form of entertainment, enhancing sporting events they were already planning on attending or at least watching.

On the list of things to do, price shopping, and playing the best odds available don’t necessarily rank very high.

However, most of us are willing to change our shopping, eating, and other spending habits when we see a significant savings opportunity.

Eventually, the sports betting industry will follow that trend, and I think I can help show you why.

Let’s go.

Why Shop Around?

Earlier, we provided the following odds table:

T. Skubal Betting Odds:

FanDuelDraftKingsUnibet
Over 6.5 | -120Over 6.5 | -140Over 6.5 | -109
Payout $8.33Payout $7.14Payout $9.17

The point we were trying to make with our Tarik Skubal odds table is that by shopping around, a bettor could improve their ROI by more than 20%, just by playing the Best Odds.

When most people looked at the odds table, they didn’t see 20%; instead, they saw a profit difference of $2.03. 

And in 2024, $2 doesn’t stretch as far as it once did. 

That $2 in profit is probably not enough for us to change our behavior.

However, let’s play out what that $2 profit difference looks like over the course of a single baseball season.

March 28th, 2024 – It’s Opening Day for the MLB season, and our hypothetical bettor has set a goal of trying to be a profitable Strikeout Prop bettor for the 2024 MLB season.

Every day, Bettor X will make one $10 wager on a starting pitcher to go Over or Under his K-Total.

We will assume that Bettor X wins 50% of their wagers and loses 50% of their wagers. 

This is what the math would look like in that scenario above.

  • Total bets placed – 6 months x 30 days = 180 MLB Strikeout Prop Bets approx)
  • Total money wagered – 180 bets x $10 / wager = $1800
  • Total bets won – 50% of 180 bets = 90 winning strikeout prop bets

This is where the math gets fun. 

  • The profit for 90 bets won at -140 odds (90 x $7.14) = $642.60
  • The profit for 90 bets won at -109 odds (90 x $9.17) = $825.30
  • That is an overall difference of $182.70. 

So, the difference for someone who is a $10 bettor/night and wins exactly 50% of their games is almost a difference of $200 for just one single MLB regular season.

Imagine if that person decides to be an MLB bettor for multiple years.

Understanding that convenience in modern society tends to be the ultimate deciding factor, the advantages of having a few different accounts set up to play the Best Odds available for each game are truly significant over time.

If you aren’t playing your Best Odds on a regular basis, the reality is you just aren’t giving yourself the best possible chance to win long-term.