bestodds logo

Best MLB Player Prop Bets Today

Best MLB Player Prop Bets Today

We have a full 15-game game slate across the MLB for Tuesday, so bettors will still have plenty of MLB player props to check out.

Below are my top MLB player props for Tuesday, and for bettors searching for some quick MLB betting action, you can find my NRFI pick of the day here.

Let’s jump into the best player props of the day, and as always, with the best odds.

2024 MLB Prop Record: 8-12 | -1.65 units

Pick: McKenzie – OVER 5.5 K’s | Best Odds: (+102) FanDuel
Pick: Olson – To Hit A Home Run | Best Odds: (+330) FanDuel

Triston McKenzie – SP, Cleveland Guardians

The Cleveland Guardians host the Seattle Mariners on Tuesday night, and Seattle is bringing their swing-and-miss offense with them.

The Mariners currently have the highest strikeout rate in the MLB at 27.6%, and over the last week (6 Games), Seattle’s offense is striking out at a monstrous 31.9% clip; the second-closest offense in K% in that time is the Miami Marlins at 26.7%.

That should provide a solid opportunity for Guardians’ righty Triston McKenzie to rack up some K’s.

As we can see from EDGE Strikeout Pro, McKenzie is regularly pitching at least five innings, but his higher pitch counts suggest that he hasn’t been the most efficient pitcher with his offerings.

McKenzie sports a 12.8% walk rate, which is actually the second highest mark of any pitcher that has thrown at least 40 innings this season (Mike Soroka is worst, 13.3%), but McKenzie has trimmed that number down to 8.2% (which is roughly MLB average) in his last two starts.

I do believe that McKenzie can still mow down this Seattle lineup by being effectively wild.

Since the beginning of June, the Mariners have gone 11-4, which will happen when most of those games are played against the Angels, Athletics, and White Sox.

But, in their last 11 games, Seattle’s lineup struck out 10 or more times in seven of those contests.

Cleveland’s pitching staff should be able to record 10 or more K’s against the Mariners on Tuesday, and I’m expecting McKenzie to collect a chunk of them and hit the over on his strikeouts prop.

Matt Olson – 1B, Atlanta Braves

It’s a “Dinger Tuesday” on FanDuel, which means bettors can receive bonus bets of $5 for each home run hit in the game of their qualifying home run wager, regardless of the outcome of their wager.

For this Tuesday, I like last years’ home run champ, Matt Olson of the Atlanta Braves.

Olson has 11 home runs on the season, and as the weather gets warmer, so does his bat.

In 2023, Olson hit 11 home runs in the month of June alone, the most he hit in any month, and with the temperature sitting around 90 degrees at first pitch in Truist Park in Atlanta tonight, I’m expecting a few balls to jump over the fence.

Olson is batting .423 (11-for-26) in his last seven games, including two home runs, and in his limited sample against the Braves’ opposing starter, Detroit Tigers’ righty Casey Mize, Olson is 1-for-3, with his one hit being a home run.

Mize allowed at least one home run in all five of his May starts, but in June, he has yet to surrender a homer in 15.1 innings pitched.

In his 65 innings of work, Mize has allowed a concerning .289 opponent average and his average exit velocity of 90.3 miles per hour is also on the higher side.

Plenty of contact — hard contact — allowed by Mize has me believing that he has been far too lucky in the home run department.

Against a former home run champ in Olson, whose bat is heating up, I like Olson’s odds to go yard at +330.

What Is A Prop Bet?

MLB player prop bets are wagers on specific individual player performances during a game or season. Prop bets don’t apply directly with the final results of a contest, such as moneylines, spreads, or totals.

Prop bets can include things like how many hits, runs, or strikeouts a player will have in a game, or whether a specific player will hit a home run.

For example, if a bettor believes that the Pittsburgh Pirates will lose but they still see starting pitcher Paul Skenes having a fine game, that bettor can bet on the total number of Skenes’ strikeouts, earned runs, outs recorded, and more.

If the over/under on Skenes’ strikeout total was set at 7.5, and Skenes struck out eight batters, then the over would be the winning bet.

Popular MLB Player Prop Bets

The over/under prop on a pitcher’s strikeout total is a common choice among MLB prop bettors, but here are some other MLB player prop bet examples:

Hits

Bettors can select a player that they believe will record a hit or go hitless in any MLB contest.

Typically, a bet to record a hit will look like this:

PlayerOVER 0.5 HitsUNDER 0.5 Hits
Jose Ramirez – CLE-255+185
Nelson Velazquez – KC-155+115

Home Runs

Similarly, bettors can place a wager on which player they believe can hit a home run in any MLB contest.

The odds of hitting a home run are clearly much longer than recording a base hit, so home run props are usually listed with only the odds to record a home run with no over/under option, although some sportsbooks, such as DraftKings will offer the over/under option.

For example on FanDuel, under “To Hit A Home Run”, Pete Alonso is listed with +285 odds to hit a homer, while at DraftKings, Alonso’s odds for a home run sit at OVER 0.5 (+250), UNDER 0.5 (-360).

RBI

Bettors that believe a hitter can cash in with runners in scoring position or find some way to drive in a run can place a wager on a player to record an RBI.

Some sportsbooks provide an over/under 0.5 RBI option, and some do not, so bettors should shop around and find the wagering options that best fit their betting needs.

Obviously, hitters that have a tendency to hit home runs have the ability to drive themselves in with one swing, so those players will naturally carry shorter odds than those that only go deep a few times per season.

Here’s an example of RBI props, courtesy of BetMGM:

PlayerOVER 0.5 RBIUNDER 0.5 RBI
Mookie Betts+185-250
Freddie Freeman+140-185
Shohei Ohtani+135-175

Betts has the longest odds of the three to collect an RBI, and this is largely due to the fact that he is the usual leadoff hitter for the Los Angeles Dodgers, so his first at-bat of the game will come with zero men on base.

The odds change for Freeman and Ohtani, who are more likely to bat with baserunners aboard.

Other popular MLB Player Props include:

  • Hits+Runs+RBI stat combo
  • Total Bases (from hits)
  • Runs Scored (individual player)
  • Stolen Bases
  • Earned Runs (pitcher)
  • Outs Recorded (pitcher)

Other Available MLB Player Prop Bets

Typically, most prop bets for hitters will be set at 0.5 on an over/under, while pitchers’ strikeouts, earned runs, and outs recorded will vary, being largely dictated by recent form and their impending matchups.

There are alternatives to usual props as well that offer longer odds, such as:

  • First Home Run (compared to “Anytime” Home Run)
  • Alternate Strikeouts
  • Alternate Hits, Runs, RBI, Total Bases, etc.
  • Player vs. Player matchups
  • And More!

The number of MLB player props has been growing for years now, so bettors should place a wager on a few different styles of prop bets and find what works best for them.

MLB Team Prop Bets

MLB team props are wagers placed on various team-related outcomes during a game or season. These bets can include bets on the total number of runs scored in a game by a certain team, whether a team will win by a specific margin, or if any team will score in any particular inning.

Team props provide a way to bet on a team’s performance beyond the outcome of the game.

MLB Game Prop Bets

Bettors can place game props as well, which are wagers on specific outcomes that occur during an individual game.

These bets can include things like:

  • Yes Or No Runs First Inning?
  • Which Team Will Score First?
  • Will Game Go Into Extra Innings?
  • Will A Home Run Be Hit In The Game?
  • Which Team Will Have More Hits?
  • Total Number of Pitchers Used By Both Teams
  • Number Of Runs Scored In A Specific Inning
  • And More!

The most popular MLB game prop has become the NRFI (No Run First Inning) bet.

Bettors interested in more information on NRFI wagers can check out BestOdds’ NRFI stats page and EDGE NRFI Pro.