Best MLB Player Prop Bets Today
Best MLB Player Prop Bets Today
Thomas Snodgrass
Updated: Jul 26, 2024
We have a full 15-game slate across the MLB for Friday, so bettors will have plenty of MLB player props to check out.
Below are my top MLB player props for Friday, and for bettors searching for some quick MLB betting action, you can find my NRFI pick of the day here.
Let’s jump into the best player props of the day, and as always, with the best odds.
| Pick: Guerrero Jr. – To Hit A Home Run | Best Odds: (+475) Caesars |
| Pick: Henderson – To Hit A Home Run | Best Odds: (+475) bet365 |
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. – 1B, Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto Blue Jays’ slugger Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is slowly, but surely, becoming that powerful bat we all know and love.
FOUR homers in five games 💥 #PLAKATA pic.twitter.com/PSj0EF6Mgn
— Toronto Blue Jays (@BlueJays) July 24, 2024
After a powerless beginning to the 2024 season, here’s a look at Guerrero’s splits, month by month.
| Guerrero Jr. | AVG | OPS | HR |
| April | .219 | .629 | 2 |
| May | .357 | .916 | 2 |
| June | .318 | .961 | 8 |
| July | .290 | .885 | 5 |
Guerrero has hit five home runs this month in only 18 games, and that power is beginning to become a regular feature in the Blue Jays’ lineup once again.
Tonight, Toronto welcomes the visiting Texas Rangers, and the Rangers have tabbed lefty Andrew Heaney as their starting pitcher.
Heaney (4-10, 3.60 ERA) has been pitching well of late, allowing just two earned runs in his last 15.1 innings pitched (three starts), but he has occasionally had issues with the long ball, surrendering 14 home runs on the season (tied for 31st among all pitchers with 100+ IP).
When it comes to his pitching arsenal, Heaney relies heavily on a four-seam fastball that averages 91.5 mph, which he frequently works up in the zone to counteract with his slider that he tends to throw down and away to righties.
A 91.5 mph fastball up in the zone to the red hot Guerrero sounds like a recipe for disaster.
Also, Guerrero must see the ball out of Heaney’s hand pretty well, as the Blue Jays’ first baseman has gone 3-for-4 (.750) with a home run in his career against Heaney.
The weather is nice today in Toronto, so with the roof of the Rogers Centre open tonight, I’m expecting the ball to be jumping, specifically off Guerrero’s bat.
Pick: Guerrero Jr. – To Hit A Home Run | BestOdds: (+475) Caesars
Gunnar Henderson – SS, Baltimore Orioles
Entering tonight’s matchup against the San Diego Padres, Baltimore Orioles’ shortstop Gunnar Henderson is third in the MLB in home runs with 28 dingers.
Henderson is tied with Atlanta Braves’ Marcell Ozuna, and behind only the Los Angeles Dodgers’ Shohei Ohtani (31 HR) and New York Yankees’ Aaron Judge (35 HR) in the home run race.
It’s been a quiet month of July for Henderson, as the All-Star is batting just .263 with two home runs and five RBI in 18 games this month, but Henderson’s strong left-handed swing matches up nicely against San Diego’s starting pitcher for Friday, Adam Mazur.
Gunnar Henderson +600 to hit a home run ✅
— John Ewing (@johnewing) June 25, 2024
Henderson was the most bet player to hit a HR today at #BetMGM
pic.twitter.com/Et7nDCoOU2
Mazur (1-3, 7.84 ERA) has allowed lefty bats to compile a .343 opponent average against him, and Henderon’s slugging percentage against righties is .597, 110 points higher than his slugging against lefties (.487).
Similar to the Heaney-Guerrero matchup, Mazur typically works in a nearly even split fastball-slider combo with his fastball frequently working up in the zone, but it’s Mazur’s heavy slider usage that intrigues me in this matchup.
According to Baseball Savant, Mazur is throwing his slider 34.7% of the time (four-seam fastball – 38.2%) and Henderson is batting .321 and slugging .774 against sliders this season.
If Mazur leaves an 87 mph slider over the plate, Henderson could send it out to Eutaw Street.
Pick: Henderson – To Hit A Home Run | BestOdds: (+475) bet365
What Is A Prop Bet?
MLB player prop bets are wagers on specific individual player performances during a game or season. Prop bets don’t apply directly with the final results of a contest, such as moneylines, spreads, or totals.
Prop bets can include things like how many hits, runs, or strikeouts a player will have in a game, or whether a specific player will hit a home run.
For example, if a bettor believes that the Pittsburgh Pirates will lose but they still see starting pitcher Paul Skenes having a fine game, that bettor can bet on the total number of Skenes’ strikeouts, earned runs, outs recorded, and more.
If the over/under on Skenes’ strikeout total was set at 7.5, and Skenes struck out eight batters, then the over would be the winning bet.
Popular MLB Player Prop Bets
The over/under prop on a pitcher’s strikeout total is a common choice among MLB prop bettors, but here are some other MLB player prop bet examples:
Hits
Bettors can select a player that they believe will record a hit or go hitless in any MLB contest.
Typically, a bet to record a hit will look like this:
| Player | OVER 0.5 Hits | UNDER 0.5 Hits |
| Jose Ramirez – CLE | -255 | +185 |
| Nelson Velazquez – KC | -155 | +115 |
Home Runs
Similarly, bettors can place a wager on which player they believe can hit a home run in any MLB contest.
The odds of hitting a home run are clearly much longer than recording a base hit, so home run props are usually listed with only the odds to record a home run with no over/under option, although some sportsbooks, such as DraftKings will offer the over/under option.
For example on FanDuel, under “To Hit A Home Run”, Pete Alonso is listed with +285 odds to hit a homer, while at DraftKings, Alonso’s odds for a home run sit at OVER 0.5 (+250), UNDER 0.5 (-360).
RBI
Bettors that believe a hitter can cash in with runners in scoring position or find some way to drive in a run can place a wager on a player to record an RBI.
Some sportsbooks provide an over/under 0.5 RBI option, and some do not, so bettors should shop around and find the wagering options that best fit their betting needs.
Obviously, hitters that have a tendency to hit home runs have the ability to drive themselves in with one swing, so those players will naturally carry shorter odds than those that only go deep a few times per season.
Here’s an example of RBI props, courtesy of BetMGM:
| Player | OVER 0.5 RBI | UNDER 0.5 RBI |
| Mookie Betts | +185 | -250 |
| Freddie Freeman | +140 | -185 |
| Shohei Ohtani | +135 | -175 |
Betts has the longest odds of the three to collect an RBI, and this is largely due to the fact that he is the usual leadoff hitter for the Los Angeles Dodgers, so his first at-bat of the game will come with zero men on base.
The odds change for Freeman and Ohtani, who are more likely to bat with baserunners aboard.
Other popular MLB Player Props include:
- Hits+Runs+RBI stat combo
- Total Bases (from hits)
- Runs Scored (individual player)
- Stolen Bases
- Earned Runs (pitcher)
- Outs Recorded (pitcher)
Other Available MLB Player Prop Bets
Typically, most prop bets for hitters will be set at 0.5 on an over/under, while pitchers’ strikeouts, earned runs, and outs recorded will vary, being largely dictated by recent form and their impending matchups.
There are alternatives to usual props as well that offer longer odds, such as:
- First Home Run (compared to “Anytime” Home Run)
- Alternate Strikeouts
- Alternate Hits, Runs, RBI, Total Bases, etc.
- Player vs. Player matchups
- And More!
The number of MLB player props has been growing for years now, so bettors should place a wager on a few different styles of prop bets and find what works best for them.
MLB Team Prop Bets
MLB team props are wagers placed on various team-related outcomes during a game or season. These bets can include bets on the total number of runs scored in a game by a certain team, whether a team will win by a specific margin, or if any team will score in any particular inning.
Team props provide a way to bet on a team’s performance beyond the outcome of the game.
MLB Game Prop Bets
Bettors can place game props as well, which are wagers on specific outcomes that occur during an individual game.
These bets can include things like:
- Yes Or No Runs First Inning?
- Which Team Will Score First?
- Will Game Go Into Extra Innings?
- Will A Home Run Be Hit In The Game?
- Which Team Will Have More Hits?
- Total Number of Pitchers Used By Both Teams
- Number Of Runs Scored In A Specific Inning
- And More!
The most popular MLB game prop has become the NRFI (No Run First Inning) bet.
Bettors interested in more information on NRFI wagers can check out BestOdds’ NRFI stats page and NRFI PRO.
All lines are subject to change.
If you or anyone you know has a gambling problem and is looking for help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.