2024 Waste Management Phoenix Open Odds & Picks

Always a fun stop on the PGA Tour, the Waste Management Phoenix Open will be hosted by the Stadium Course at TPC Scottsdale.

The Par 3 No. 16 hole is a rowdy spot that can feel more like a nightclub than a country club, with tons of noise and a large number of alcoholic beverages being thrown from the stands when a golfer does something impressive, or unimpressive.

If anything gets out of hand on the 16th hole, the PGA could always send in former nightclub bouncer-turned PGA Pro Jake Knapp to sort it all out.

The 16th hole reminds me of that scene from the movie ‘Caddyshack’, when the caddies are allowed to enter the country club pool, but only for 15 minutes.

The pool quickly becomes overrun with caddies and becomes a lawless entity.

That’s what the 16th at TPC Scottsdale is like.

🚨The backstory behind @Joel_Dahmen and @harryhiggs1991 taking their shirts off at the 2022 Waste Management Phoenix Open.

(📸: Full Swing/Netflix) pic.twitter.com/1XeUfzBiWb

— CHARGE GOLF BTS (@ChargeGolfBTS) February 27, 2023

Unfortunately, there won’t be swimming pool-like weather for all four rounds in Scottsdale, although the precipitation should vanish from the forecast by the weekend, benefitting all golfers that make the cut on Friday afternoon.

Tipping at 7,261 yards, this track playing at a Par: 71 has favored bombers in the past, with former PGA Tour member Brooks Koepka winning twice (2015 and 2021).

The defending Phoenix Open champion for two years running is Scottie Scheffler.

Scheffler’s wins in 2022 (16-under) and 2023 (19-under) were largely due to his abnormally strong putting on the greens at Scottsdale.

Although he was ranked 161st on Tour in strokes gained: putting in 2023, he still managed to finish 13th in sg: putting for the week of the Phoenix Open.

Scheffler also finished 18th in strokes gained: off-the-tee, and first in strokes gained: approach, and was third in greens in regulation, hitting 77.8% of greens.

In 2022, Scheffler was 2nd in sg: putting at TPC Scottsdale, so there is something about these desert greens that agree with the flatstick for the World’s No. 1 golfer.

The focus for me this week will be golfers that are doing well in strokes gained: off-the-tee, greens in regulation, proximity from 150-175 yards, and strokes: gained putting.

I’ll put slightly less weight on putting, even though it’s nearly half the number of strokes for each golfer.

I’m looking for golfers that can put themselves in position to go low.

This tourney will have a 132-man field, with the cut at 65 and ties after 36 holes.

Scheffler is the heavy favorite to win once again, with best odds of +500 on FanDuel, but let’s look around the betting boards to find some strong options to win the Waste Management Phoenix Open.

Top Of The Board

Justin Thomas

After a head-scratching season last year, Thomas has gotten off on the right foot this season, finishing T3 at the American Express and T6 at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

Still yet to shoot a round higher than 68, Thomas is back to his old ways and climbing back up the Official World Golf Ranking, currently at No. 19.

Thomas is now 20th in strokes gained: off-the-tee, 14th in strokes gained: total, and 2nd in greens in regulation.

The most common approach shot at TPC Scottsdale is roughly 150-170 yards, and in proximity from that distance, Thomas sits at a mildly concerning 145th on Tour.

I’m backing Thomas’ track record on this course over the early season numbers, seeing that he has six top 20s in this tournament since 2018.

Pick: Thomas – Outright Winner (+1000) BetMGM

Sam Burns

Another man that’s very familiar with TPC Scottsdale, Burns finished T6 in the Waste Management Phoenix Open in 2023, missed the cut in 2022, and finished T22 in 2021.

A missed cut being sandwiched between two solid finishes may not look great, but I like the experience.

Burns’ main struggle thus far has been his driving, sitting 105th on Tour in strokes gained: off-the-tee, specifically in driving accuracy, where he ranks 104th.

Interestingly, Burns is 10th on Tour in proximity from the rough, so missing a fairway or two shouldn’t dismantle his game.

Burns is also 15th in greens in regulation, 21st in proximity from the very common marking of 150-175 yards, and 32nd in strokes gained: putting.

It seems like just a matter of time before the 27-year old breaks through on the Stadium Course.

Pick: Burns – Outright Winner (+2000) DraftKings

Middle Of The Board

Byeong Hun An

Byeong Hun An has been consistent to start the year, and last week’s finish of T31 at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am was An’s worst finish thus far.

With a solo fourth-place finish at The Sentry and a T2 at the Sony Open in Hawaii, I think it’s fair to say that An’s game is in a good place right now.

The numbers would agree.

An is 31st in strokes gained: off-the-tee, 29th in greens in regulation, 25th in strokes gained: putting, and 7th in strokes gained: total.

In five turns at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, An is 5-for-5 in cuts made and has produced a 68.6 scoring average.

Add a solid current form to a solid history and you’ve got a solid betting value at 30-1.

Pick: An – Outright Winner (+3000) bet365

Sahith Theegala

The numbers for Sahith Theegala say that he could post low numbers at TPC Scottsdale, but his consistency in this West Coast swing has been tough to grasp.

Solo second at The Sentry, followed by a missed cut at the Sony Open, then a T64 at the Farmers and a T20 at Pebble Beach.

While his placements have been scattered, his game appears to be in decent form.

Theegala is top 50 among all golfers in strokes gained off-the-tee (50th), strokes gained: putting (37th), strokes gained: total (32nd), and he is 40th in greens in regulation and 50th in proximity from the magic number of 150-175 yards.

In the 2022 edition of the Phoenix Open, Theegala missed getting into the 16-under playoff with Scottie Scheffler and Patrick Cantlay after carding a 70 and finishing at 15-under.

If there’s anyone that will be attacking TPC Scottsdale with a vengeance, it would be Theegala.

The man has unfinished business here.

Pick: Theegala – Outright Winner (+3500) DraftKings

Bottom Of The Board

Akshay Bhatia

This will be Bhatia’s first run at the Stadium Course in Scottsdale, and although he doesn’t have the track record here of say Hideki Matsuyama or Justin Thomas, the lefty’s game suits this course well.

Bhatia’s strokes gained: off-the-tee (36th on Tour) is largely due to hitting fairways from the tee box, currently 47th in driving accuracy.

If Bhatia can continue staying out of the thick stuff, he should be able to capitalize on his ball striking.

Currently 31st on Tour in Greens in Regulation and 16th in proximity from 150-175 yards, Bhatia has the right fit to score on this track.

Bhatia’s rankings of 16th in strokes gained: putting and 15th in strokes gained: total is just icing on the cake.

Sure, it’s his debut here, but it’s harder to find a better value than Bhatia at 80-1.

Pick: Bhatia – Outright Winner (+8000) bet365

Scott Stallings

In the last two editons of the Waste Management Phoenix Open, Stallings has finished T23 (6-under), and T21 (10-under).

Nothing incredible, but he has shown an ability to score well at Scottsdale and has fired a sub-70 in five of his last eight rounds at the Stadium Course.

Stallings is 44th on Tour in strokes gained: putting and 13th in proximity from 150-175 to go along with a 37th ranking in the all-around strokes gained: total.

At bet365, Stallings has a decent value of +475 to finish in the Top 20, but with a value of 270-1 at FanDuel, maybe this is the year of ‘Scott’ instead of ‘Scottie’ in the desert.

Pick: Stallings – Outright Winner (+27000) FanDuel