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2024 U.S. Open Odds & Picks

Author

Thomas Snodgrass

Updated: Jun 12, 2024

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The 124th U.S. Open will tee off at Pinehurst No. 2 this Thursday, and last week’s winner of The Memorial, Scottie Scheffler, enters the third major championship as the betting favorite.

Scheffler has already picked up five victories this season, including The Masters, and the No. 1 golfer in the world is likely to finish high atop the leaderboard once again at Pinehurst No. 2.

The name “Scheffler” can be found near the top of any golf statistic – – except for putting – – and the question of “Scheffler or the field” is an increasingly popular question among bettors placing their slips.

The U.S. Open is a major though, so Scheffler may not be able to run away from this star-studded field.

Yeah, I know Scheffler won The Masters by four strokes.

Pinehurst No. 2 is a North Carolina gem, an arduous Donald Ross design where precision is paramount.

Errant shots on this track’s undulating terrain may lead to more errant shots, and strategically placed bunkers can swallow golf balls and force golfers to “play it safe” and “lay up” to avoid any costly blow up holes.

Pinehurst’s fairways are considered to be narrower than other courses, and these tighter fairways lead a path to deceptive greens. The square footage of these greens are not indicative of where the ball can sit, with these perched landing spots being riddled with roll off areas.

The greens are super slick, and paired with the roll off areas, golfers have been humorously frustrated in their practice rounds prior to the tournament.

Regardless of the actual size of any green, approach shots will need to be perfectly placed to remain on the dance floor.

The aptly named Pinehurst No. 2 is a second-shot course, so golfers will need to throw in some darts to compete.

For my betting selections of the 2024 U.S. Open, a few key stats that I will be looking at will be driving accuracy, strokes gained: approach, proximity, strokes gained: putting, and after that video, scrambling, and strokes gained: around the green.

Let’s take a look at the odds board and examine some potentially profitable U.S. Open winners, and as always, with the best odds.

Here’s a quick look at the 10 golfers with the shortest odds to win the 124th U.S. Open.

U.S. Open – Top 10 Shortest Odds

GolferOdds To Win U.S. Open
Scottie Scheffler+333 BetMGM
Xander Schauffele+1100 BetMGM
Rory McIlroy+1200 BetMGM
Collin Morikawa+1600 DraftKings
Viktor Hovland+2000 DraftKings
Bryson DeChambeau+2000 bet365
Ludvig Aberg+2200 Caesars
Brooks Koepka+2200 DraftKings
Tommy Fleetwood+4000 FanDuel
Cameron Smith+5000 DraftKings

Viktor Hovland (+2000)

Hovland missed the cut at The Masters, but rebounded nicely in the second major tournament of the year, finishing 18-under at Valhalla for solo third in the PGA Championship.

Always known for his precise iron game, Hovland makes for a good fit on this second-shot track.

Currently 38th in strokes gained: total, 10th in strokes gained: off the tee, 28th in strokes gained approach and a respectable 70th in strokes gained: putting, Hovland has the well-rounded game to compete.

One concern may be his struggles with cleaning up around the greens, currently at 173rd in strokes gained: around the green and 150th in scrambling.

A good week with the irons for Hovland can make up for any need to salvage his score from off the green.

Scoring will be tough to come by this week, and last week’s Memorial was a solid tune up for golfers looking to break par. Hovland finished 2-over, T15 at the Memorial, so he should be better suited for this tough test.

Pick: Hovland – Outright Winner (+2000) DraftKings
Hovland For Top 20 | Best Odds: (-110) bet365

Ludvig Aberg (+2200)

From the Norwegian to the Swede!

Aberg has recorded six top 10s in 12 events this season, frequently contending and rising to No. 6 in the Official World Golf Ranking.

Approach shots have been a big reason for Aberg’s breakout 2024 campaign, currently 15th in strokes gained: approach and fourth in proximity.

Aberg’s game is so well-rounded, I have a hard time not imagining his name near the top of the leaderboard come Sunday.

The 24-year-old Swede’s driver has been long and accurate (3rd in total driving), his irons have been great, and he has been tidy around the greens and has done well at scrambling to save par (7th in scrambling).

Take all of that and add in a reliable flatstick (61st in sg: putting), and you’ve got a strong contender for the U.S. Open.

Pick: Aberg – Outright Winner (+2200) Caesars
Aberg For Top 20 | Best Odds: (+105) bet365

Hideki Matsuyama (+4500)

Matsuyama has yet to miss a cut this year, and since the Genesis Invitational back in February, he has recorded four top 10s in seven events, including a win at the Genesis, and finishing no worse than T38 at The Masters.

The only knock against Matsuyama may be his putting, as he is 133rd on tour in strokes gained: putting, but he checks almost every other box as a potential contender at Pinehurst.

While not the longest driver, Matsuyama splits more fairways than most, and his approach game remains strong, sitting 19th on Tour in strokes gained: approach and 28th in proximity.

Most importantly, Matsuyama is No. 1 on Tour in strokes gained around the green and sixth in scrambling.

This week, when par can actually gain a stroke on the field, Matsuyama should be a nice fit.

Pick: Matsuyama – Outright Winner (+4500) BetMGM
Matsuyama For Top 20 | Best Odds: (+160) bet365

Wyndham Clark (+7000)

Could Wyndham Clark go back-to-back in the U.S. Open?

Clark won the 2023 edition at Los Angeles Country Club by one stroke over Rory McIlroy, and three strokes over Scottie Scheffler.

In recent weeks though, Clark’s results have not been promising. Clark has missed three of his last five cuts, including The Masters, The PGA Championship and The Memorial.

Those three tournaments were played on tracks that suppress high scores, just like Pinehurst, but I wouldn’t say that Clark is a golfer that can’t compete on difficult courses.

Despite the recent iffy results, Clark is still 10th in strokes gained: total, 17th in strokes gained: off the tee, and 27th in strokes gained: putting.

If Clark can get the irons going (72nd in sg: approach, 73rd in proximity), then he could flirt with back-to-back U.S. Open victories.

Pick: Clark – Outright Winner (+7000) bet365
Clark For Top 20 | Best Odds: (+250) bet365

Brian Harman (+12000)

In his career, Harman has made eight appearances in the U.S. Open, finishing as high as 12-under T2 at Erin Hills in 2017.

Interestingly, 2017 was the only one of his eight appearances where he actually finished below par.

The last time the U.S. Open was played at Pinehurst No. 2 was 2014, and only three golfers finished better than par, so I’m not too concerned about Harman’s scoring.

The lefty could climb the leaderboard by simply not bogeying holes.

Harman is 41st on Tour in scrambling, and when scrambling from 10 to 20 yards away – – which may be a common occurrence considering the roll off areas – – Harman is 21st on Tour.

Also, Harman’s approach game is quietly strong.

Harman is 54th on Tour in strokes gained: approach and 32nd in proximity.

Harman’s flatstick has also carried him at times, sitting 28th on Tour in strokes gained: putting.

If Harman can get his ball to sit on the green, his dependable putting could vault him up the leaderboard.

Pick: Harman – Outright Winner (+12000) FanDuel
Harman For Top 20 | Best Odds: (+350) BetMGM

Tom Hoge (+17000)

When looking for a major champion, most won’t look Tom Hoge’s way.

But I will!

Tom Hoge has absolutely fantastic numbers that make him a sleeper to contend at Pinehurst No. 2.

Hoge is third on Tour in strokes gained: approach and he’s been firing more darts than Phil “The Power” Taylor, who I’ve been told is the best dart player ever.

Here’s a look at Hoge’s rankings based on distances of approach.

Distance of ApproachHoge’s Tour Ranking
Approach from 100-125 Yards3rd
Approach from 125-150 Yards3rd
Approach from 150-175 Yards31st
Approach from 175-200 Yards33rd
Approach from Greater than 200 Yards5th

While some golfers may question the distance of their clubs, Hoge appears to have his distances dialed in.

Hoge’s elite proximity should benefit him greatly when firing shots at Pinehurst’s perched greens, while other golfers won’t be so lucky.

A dependable short game (64th in sg: putting and 61st in scrambling) and some great ironwork should push Hoge’s name into a different stratosphere this week.

The main question: When will Tom Hoge win his first major?

The answer: Sunday.

Pick: Hoge – Outright Winner (+17000) FanDuel
Hoge For Top 20 | Best Odds: (+425) bet365
Author

About the author

A fan of both the Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers, which is rare! Thomas provides sports betting content with the intent to educate and enter...

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