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2024 The Players Championship Odds & Picks

Thomas Snodgrass

Updated: Mar 13, 2024


This week, the PGA Tour heads to TPC Sawgrass for the 50th edition of The Players Championship.

Sawgrass is a par 72 course that tips at 7,275 yards, featuring slimmer fairways and smaller greens, golfers must be at the top of their game to limit tournament crushing mistakes.

When selecting a golfer to place a bet on in “The 5th Major”, recent form must be heavily considered as 11 of the past 12 winners of The Players Championship finished T22 or better in their previous tournament.

Scottie Scheffler, both the winner from last week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational and The Players Championship from last year, will attempt to win back-to-back weeks and back-to-back Players Championships.

If Scheffler does win, he would be the first golfer in PGA history to successfully defend his title at The Players.

Swingers that can keep it in the fairway will get off on the right foot at TPC Sawgrass, so while some stats such as strokes gained: off-the-tee are solid indicators of those performing well from the tee box, I’ll key in more on accuracy over distance.

A solid example is Brian Harman. The lefty is not the longest driver on the tour, but he is usually quite accurate with a driver in his hands.

Last season, Harman was 156th in driving distance and 16th in accuracy, and finished T44.

And in his last four appearances at Sawgrass, Harman has made all four cuts and has two Top 10s.

With smaller than normal greens, ball-strikers, especially those in good recent form, should be of focus.

Those that don’t strike the ball well will at least give viewers some entertainment on Sawgrass’ infamous Par-3 17th island green.

Let’s take a look at some potential values on the betting boards for The Players Championship and pinpoint some golfers that could take home $4.5 million and 750 FedEx Cup points.

Top Of The Board

The Players Championship – 10 Shortest Odds

GolfersBest Odds to Win – The Players
Scottie Scheffler+550 bet365
Rory McIlroy+1600 BetMGM
Xander Schauffele+2200 BetMGM
Justin Thomas+2200 bet365
Viktor Hovland+2500 DraftKings
Max Homa+2500 FanDuel
Collin Morikawa+2800 BetMGM
Patrick Cantlay+3000 FanDuel
Will Zalatoris+3300 bet365
Ludvig Aberg+3500 DraftKings

Justin Thomas (+2200)

This season, Justin Thomas appears to be in better form, with just one missed cut in five events (The Genesis Invitational).

Every time Thomas has seen the weekend, he has finished well, with a T3 at the American Express, a T6 in the Pebble Beach Pro-Am, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, and T12 last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

The flat stick has troubled Thomas the most in 2024, sitting 136 in strokes gained: putting, but the former Players Championship winner has been dialed in with every other shot in his bag.

Thomas is 25th in strokes gained: total, highlighted by his success in two major metrics for TPC Sawgrass, strokes gained: off-the-tee (46th) and strokes gained: approach (30th).

Also, Thomas has never missed a cut in eight tries at The Players, so his experience and previous results should stand up strong against the rest of the field.

Pick: Thomas – Outright Winner (+2200) bet365

Thomas For Top 20 | Best Odds: (+125) FanDuel

Will Zalatoris (+3300)

In 2023, Will Zalatoris finished 73rd in The Players, carding rounds of 74-71-74-77.

A few weeks later, Zalatoris would be out for quite some time after a back injury, leading to a microdiscectomy, which sounds painful.

It appears that Zalatoris’ back issues are now behind him, where back issues belong.

Zalatoris has made four straight cuts, and in his last three tournaments, he has gone T13, T2, T4.

The numbers have been promising for Zalatoris in 2024.

Zalatoris is seventh in strokes gained: total, 30th in strokes gained: off-the-tee, eighth in strokes gained: approach, and 79th in strokes gained: putting.

TPC Sawgrass is best attacked by ball-strikers, and Zalatoris fits the bill, so his scoring should be solid this week.

Pick: Zalatoris – Outright Winner (+2200) bet365

Zalatoris For Top 20 | Best Odds: (+170) bet365

Middle Of The Board

Hideki Matsuyama (+4000)

Continuing with golfers that are getting back to their lofty standards, Hideki Matsuyama is climbing back to the top of the PGA Tour.

Last season, Matsuyama tallied 11 Top 25s in 26 events, but this season, he has already collected four Top 25s in his first seven events, including a victory at The Genesis Invitational.

Matsuyama’s win at The Genesis was his first Top 10 since last year’s Players Championship, finishing in solo 5th place at 9-under.

Matsuyama has an impressive track record at TPC Sawgrass, including three career Top 10s, and his world-class iron play always seems to make an impact on the leaderboard at The Players.

In the event that Matsuyama misses Sawgrass’ small greens, his short game is already in a great place, currently fourth in strokes gained: around the green.

A good week with the putter in his hands could be the difference for Matsuyama in Florida.

Pick: Matsuyama – Outright Winner (+4000) FanDuel

Matsuyama For Top 20 | Best Odds: (+170) DraftKings

Jason Day (+6000)

Jason Day has finished inside the Top 10 in three of his six tournaments this season, so Day is just another long standing PGA Tour veteran that has found his groove.

Day finished 6-under at The Players in 2023, good for a T19 placement, but Day’s scoring has been a good place, averaging 10-under par over his last five tournaments, and is 28th in scoring average (69.1) and 9th in Par-4 scoring.

The biggest obstacle for Day will be his driving accuracy on Sawgrass’ tighter fairways, currently sitting 154th on Tour in accuracy from the tee box.

Historically a strong putter on Poa greens, Day is 73rd in strokes gained: putting this year, and he is sixth on Tour in one-putt percentage, needing only one stroke to finish on 45.1% of his greens.

If Day keeps rolling it well on the greens and scoring at a higher level than the field, he’ll be knocking on the door to claim his first victory since the Byron Nelson in May 2023.

Pick: Day – Outright Winner (+6000) DraftKings

Day For Top 20 | Best Odds: (+175) DraftKings

Bottom Of The Board

Brendon Todd (+8000)

Brendon Todd has some quietly strong numbers to back his respectable start to the season.

Todd is currently 22nd on Tour in driving accuracy, so splitting the Sawgrass fairways should be of little issue, and his ranking of 12th in strokes gained: putting shows how well Todd can clean up on the greens.

Hitting the short grass and succeeding with the flat stick are great for the beginning and end of each hole, but it’s the iron play in the middle of the hole that could use some improvement.

Todd has been a decent ball-striker in the past, as recently as last year, he was 67th in strokes gained: approach and 10th in proximity to the hole; this year Todd is currently 103rd in strokes gained: approach and 94th in proximity.

I see a regression to the norm for Todd’s irons coming, and that rebound could occur at The Players this week, where Todd finished 5-under T27 last season.

With a T6 in last week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational, largely due to his lethal short game, Todd is trending up.

Pick: Todd – Outright Winner (+12000) FanDuel

Todd For Top 20 | Best Odds: (+400) bet365

Ryo Hisatsune (+17500)

Last week, some PGA pros plied their trade at Bay Hill for the Arnold Palmer, while many others were at the Grand Reserve Golf Course for the Puerto Rico Open.

Ryo Hisatsune finished T18 in the Puerto Rico Open, with much of his success coming from his driving accuracy, hitting 67.9% of fairways.

Splitting the fairways at TPC Sawgrass should get Hisatsune off on the right foot.

Hisatsune also hit 75 percent of his greens in regulation and finished 8th in birdies scored.

None of that led to a win, but Hisatsune still fits the trend of 11 off the last 12 victors at The Players finishing T22 or better in their previous event.

Hisatsune is 53rd in strokes gained: approach, 61st in greens in regulation, 20th in scoring average (68.9), and 24th in birdie average.

If only he could get more putts to drop, sitting 124th in strokes gained: putting.

Now 83rd in the Official World Golf Ranking at just 21-years old, Hisatsune is one big win away from being a staple on the PGA Tour.

Pick: Hisatsune – Outright Winner (+17500) bet365

Hisatsune For Top 20 | Best Odds: (+550) BetMGM

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