2024 PGA Championship Odds & Picks

The 106th PGA Championship will tee off at Valhalla Golf Club in Louisville Kentucky on Thursday. This will be the PGA Championship’s second turn at Valhalla, last playing host to this major tournament in 2014.

Valhalla is actually an Old Norse term meaning “hall of the slain”, and the lone man that has yet to be slain on this track is last week’s winner, Rory McIlroy.

McIlroy shot 16-under back in 2014, and it was the driver that helped lead him to victory, leading the field in almost every statistical category from the tee box.

Success from the tee box is always a great place to start, but McIlroy’s whole game was locked in when he last dug his spikes into Valhalla.

The shot. The club twirl. The stare. @McIlroyRory was locked in during his PGA Championship win at Valhalla in 2014!#PGAChamp | #TopShotTuesday pic.twitter.com/K9CkmJ63JL

— PGA Championship (@PGAChampionship) October 10, 2023

Valhalla can stretch past 7,600 yards, so a golfer’s ability to drive the ball – both splitting the fairways and transcending the fairways – will be of importance.

Tee shots on par 4s will still provide golfers with long approach shots, and the same goes for the par 5s, of course. Golfers that can excel with their long irons and fairway woods should gain a few strokes over the field.

With this course not being a typical fixture on the PGA Tour, there is less of a track record to examine, so recent form will be of note, as it should for any tournament.

Scottie Scheffler has been so dominant this season, as he has won four times and recorded nine top 10s in 10 events, that he has essentially been priced out, at least for my liking.

When deciding who will win the 106th PGA Championship, the question appears to be: Scheffler or the field?

Scheffler did just become a father recently, and with his new found ‘Dad strength’, who knows what Scheffler could do in Louisville?

Let’s examine the betting board for the PGA Championship and highlight a few golfers not named Scheffler that could take home the Wanamaker Trophy.

Top Of The Board

The PGA Championship – 10 Shortest Odds

Golfers	Best Odds to Win
Scottie Scheffler	+450 BetMGM
Rory McIlroy	+750 DraftKings
Xander Schauffele	+1400 FanDuel
Brooks Koepka	+1600 DraftKings
John Rahm	+1800 BetMGM
Ludvig Aberg	+2200 FanDuel
Bryson DeChambeau	+2800 DraftKings
Collin Morikawa	+3000 FanDuel
Max Homa	+3500 FanDuel
Joaquin Niemann	+3500 DraftKings

Ludvig Aberg (+2200)

Ludvig Aberg comes into the PGA Championship with eight consecutive finishes of T25 or better, including a solo second finish at The Masters.

Ranked No. 6 in the Official World Golf Rankings, Aberg has the numbers to back it up, as he is 13th in strokes gained: off-the-tee, 17th in strokes gained: approach, second in proximity to the hole, and 12th in scrambling.

In a longer course such as Valhalla, Aberg has the game built for this course; sitting second-best on Tour in approaches from 150 to 175 yards, and 19th from 175 to 200 yards.

Aberg is a respectable 73rd in strokes gained: putting and still gaining strokes against the field with the flatstick. If Aberg rolls it well on the greens this week, he could put up a really low number, similar to McIlroy’s 16-under in 2014.

There are some concerns around a sore knee that Aberg may be suffering, and he did withdraw from the Wells Fargo prior to Thursday last week, but apparently he’s been dealing with it for awhile now, including in his run at The Masters.

Assuming that his knee injury isn’t too debilitating, I like the Swede’s chances of taking home his first career major victory.

Pick: Aberg – Outright Winner (+2200) FanDuel

Aberg For Top 20 | Best Odds: (+100) DraftKings

Collin Morikawa (+3000)

Morikawa had a forgettable start to the season, missing the cut in two of his first five events, but he enters Valhalla Golf Club on a T3, 9th, T16 run, with his third-place finish coming at The Masters.

Something down in August, Georgia may have sparked Morikawa’s game.

As things currently stand, Morikawa looks iffy on paper, but those statistics are ballooned by previous poor performances, and sometimes, pedigree can outmatch the numbers.

The two-time major champion already has a PGA Championship under his belt, winning the 2020 edition at TPC Harding Park in San Francisco with a memorable eagle on the 16th.

Morikawa is only ranked 103rd on Tour in strokes gained: approach, but in the very important long iron game, Morikawa has done well, sitting 10th on Tour in proximity from 175 to 200 yards.

Also, Morikawa’s game from the tee box has been strong, ranking 29th on Tour in strokes gained: off-the-tee.

The greens are the biggest concern for Morikawa, as he is 128th in strokes gained: putting.

If the driver is working, and the long irons are working, then Morikawa should work just fine at Valhalla.

Pick: Morikawa – Outright Winner (+3000) FanDuel

Morikawa For Top 20 | Best Odds: (+125) bet365

Middle Of The Board

Cameron Young (+5500)

Cameron Young’s odds to win the PGA Championship are as short as 35-1 on Caesars, but with his odds sitting at 55-1 on FanDuel, it pays for bettors to shop around.

Young stepped up at The Masters, finishing T9, and playing on the PGA Tour’s grandest of stages has done little to deter the 27-year-old.

In last year’s four majors, Young finished T7, CUT, T32, T8, with the lone cut coming at the PGA Championship.

For the 2024 PGA Championship, Young makes for a decent fit, similar to Morikawa.

Young is 32nd in strokes gained: off-the-tee, 22nd in strokes gained: approach, and fourth in proximity from 175 to 200 yards.

Also, like Morikawa, the flatstick has been an issue for Young (128th in strokes gained: putting).

Pick: Young – Outright Winner (+5500) FanDuel

Young For Top 20 | Best Odds: (+200) FanDuel

Byeong Hun An (+6000)

It’s hard to believe that a player with a strong scoring track record like Byeong Hun An is still looking for his first career PGA Tour victory.

Maybe An’s first win could also be his first major championship?

An finished a solid T16 at The Masters back in April, so he may have less nerves going into the PGA Tour’s second major.

An is in decent form at the moment, going T4 (CJ Cup Byron Nelson) and solo third (Wells Fargo) in his last two events, and that includes six rounds of sub-70 golf in his last eight rounds entering the PGA Championship.

With a steady game across the board, An could contend. He is currently 21st in strokes gained off-the-tee, 55th in strokes gained: approach, and 12th in proximity from 175 to 200 yards.

Pick: An – Outright Winner (+6000) DraftKings

An For Top 20 | Best Odds: (+200) bet365

Bottom Of The Board

Alex Noren (+15000)

Ludvig Aberg may be the Swedish native that is most likely to hoist the Wanamaker Trophy on Sunday, but Alex Noren has the stuff to make a strong run for his first major championship.

Noren has picked up 11 international victories in his career, but he’s still looking for his first PGA Tour win.

Although Noren hasn’t taken home the biggest check in any tournament, he continues to make paydays, connecting on all 11 cuts in events played this season.

In his last seven events, Noren has not finished any worse than T24, and in all 28 rounds, he has fired 15 rounds in the 60’s.

Noren has been impressive in the tee box, sitting 35th in strokes gained: off-the-tee, and from the fairway, he is 6th in greens in regulation.

The biggest concern for Noren will be his long approach shots, as his longer irons have come up short. Noren is 115th in proximity from the targeted distance of 175 to 200 yards, but the good numbers keep on coming.

Noren is also fifth in strokes gained: total, fifth in par 4 scoring average, third in total scoring average and No. 1 on Tour in scrambling.

The long irons may be iffy, but the rest of his game is there.

Pick: Noren – Outright Winner (+15000) Caesars

Noren For Top 20 | Best Odds: (+333) bet365

Stephan Jaeger (+15000)

Stephan Jaeger has had a bit of an up-and-down season, but he still picked up his first PGA Tour victory at the Texas Children’s Houston Open at the end of March.

Unfortunately, that win was sandwiched by two missed cuts; one of the missed cuts being The Masters.

Since that early exit at Augusta, Jaeger has rebounded, going T18, T20, T21 in his last three events.

Despite the inconsistencies, Jaeger continues to climb the Official World Golf Ranking, now sitting at No. 38 in the world.

Odds of 150-1 is not too shabby for a golfer with such a ranking.

Jaegers’ distance, both off the tee and in the fairway, is what can separate him from the field at Valhalla.

Currently 10th on Tour in driving distance and 17th in strokes gained: off-the-tee, Jaeger can bomb it. When it comes to long approach shots, Jaeger may be 61st from 175 to 200 yards, but his distance from the tee may set him up more frequently in the 150 to 175 range; where he sits 35th on Tour.

Jaeger has proven to be a threat at many tournaments, recording three top 10s and seven top 25s in 13 events, and Jaegers’ rankings of 21st in scoring average and 11th in strokes gained: total shows his ascent.

Pick: Jaeger – Outright Winner (+15000) FanDuel

Jaeger For Top 20 | Best Odds: (+333) bet365