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2024 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Odds & Picks

Thomas Snodgrass

Updated: Jan 30, 2024


Pebble Beach, where the surf meets the turf.

The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am will feature a field of 80 golfers, teeing off with celebrities over the first two rounds, alternating between the courses at Pebble Beach and Spyglass Hill.

The final two rounds will feature Pebble Beach exclusively in this no-cut tournament.

This will be a signature event on the PGA Tour, so the winning purse includes higher earnings, and more FedEx Cup points will be at stake.

That’s good news for former amateur and new PGA Tour pro Nick Dunlap, who received zero dollars and zero FedEx Cup points after his win at the American Express.

Dunlap was just one of the four tournament longshots to claim a trophy in this young PGA season.

Four consecutive victories for golfers with odds at over 100-1 will certainly have bettors checking out the bottom of the betting board.

Two-thirds of the tournament, Pebble Beach will be the main course to focus on this week.

Pebble Beach has the PGA Tour’s smallest greens, so finding golfers that can fire in darts to dime-sized greens will be paramount.

Among the last 12 winners of this tournament, 11 of them finished inside the top 10 in greens in regulation.

For those that like ‘proximity to hole’ over ‘greens in regulation’, the last 13 winners finished inside the top 30 in proximity, with the last six finishing in the top five in proximity.

At only 6,972 yards, distance will not be a necessary factor, with the average drive of 268 yards at Pebble Beach being one of the lowest among the PGA’s rotation of courses.

Spyglass Hill offers smaller than average greens as well, and tips at a non-intimidating 7,041 yards.

Similarly, golfers will need to focus on ball striking in their lone turn at Spyglass.

The Par 5 18th at Pebble Beach is one of the more popular finishing holes on Tour, but golfers will need to make up shots on the lesser-known Par 4s, as nine of the last 10 winners finished the week top two in Par 4 scoring.

While a gaggle of celebrities will be swirling about the Monterey Peninsula, so will the winds.

“Mother Nature” will likely be the most popular name bandied about on the links this week.

Wind and rain are expected for nearly all four days, with wind gusts expected between 20 and 40 miles per hour.

One gust at the wrong time and a power fade becomes a slice or a draw becomes a hook.

The rain should soften conditions too, which will likely slow down the Poa Annua greens, making putting NOT a key stat for me this week.

I’m looking for swingers that can get on the dance floor.

Let’s take a look at the betting boards and pinpoint some options that could take home not just a trophy, but also $3.6 Million and 700 FedEx Cup points.

All golfers are paired with the best odds for outright winners.

It’s important to shop around, especially for golf!

For Example, Canadian Nick Taylor is +7500 on bet365, +9000 on BetMGM, +11000 on DraftKings, and +12000 on FanDuel.

If Taylor comes out on top this Sunday, an $100 bettor would win $750 on bet365, but that same bettor could have won $1,200 on FanDuel.

Why leave $450 on the table?

Top Of The Board

Jordan Spieth

The last time we saw Jordan Spieth, he finished solo third at The Sentry, another no cut tournament.

Once again, with no worries of a cut, I see Spieth going out there and playing easy and focused golf.

Teeing up at Pebble Beach for the 12th time, Spieth has six Top 10s in his previous 11 trips, including a win in 2017.

Spieth currently sits No. 2 on Tour in Par 4 Scoring, which is critical for nine of the last 10 winners of the Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

As the tweet above shows, Spieth is a magician around the greens.

Historically a strong scrambler, Spieth should be able to clean up any errant shots that may miss Pebble’s tiny targets.

Pick: Spieth – Outright Winner (+2000) FanDuel

Patrick Cantlay

In the opening round of the 2021 Pebble Beach Pro-Am, Cantay recorded a 10-under 62 to tie the course record, so when it comes to course history, the California native has made history.

Cantlay has a few finishes this season that have been crumbled by weak Sunday’s, but he’s still tracking well.

Much like Spieth, Cantlay has been a great scrambler throughout his career and he’s currently 34th in strokes gained: around the green.

When it comes to finding golfers that can limit the squares on the scorecard, it’s hard to look past Cantlay.

Cantlay didn’t tee it up at the Pro-Am in 2023, but in his last two appearances, he has finished T3 in 2021, and T4 in 2022.

Pick: Cantlay – Outright Winner (+2000) BetMGM

Middle Of The Board

Cameron Young

Currently sitting 4th in approach from 125-150 yards, 30th in Par 4 scoring, and 37th in scrambling, Young’s solid approach and clean up game should make for the perfect combo to attack Pebble Beach.

Young has been trending well, recording nine rounds of sub-70 golf in his last 12 rounds, with a T33 in his last appearance at the Sentry; ultimately a poorer than expected finish with a third round 74.

The lack of length off the tee will not be a disservice to Young this week, and in his Pebble debut on Tour, he could surprise.

Pick: Young – Outright Winner (+5000) bet365

Jason Day

The last two editions of the Pro-Am being impacted by wind and rain was 2019 and 2023. Both of those tourneys were won by veterans Phil Mickelson and Justin Rose.

Jason Day could be this edition’s weather-impacted veteran victor.

Knowing how to properly attack this course should benefit Day, and he certainly knows how to attack this track.

Day has eight Top 10s at Pebble and he’s one of the tournament’s all-time money leaders.

A solid history for a man that’s never hoisted the trophy.

Day has always been a better putter on Poa greens. Pair that with his 11th-place ranking in Par 4 scoring and his solid around the green game, and you’ve got a contender with value.

Pick: Day – Outright Winner (+5500) FanDuel

Bottom Of The Board

Chris Kirk

When thinking of who can excel in a tournament where ball striking weighs heavier than driving distance or putting, the first man that comes to mind is Chris Kirk.

Already a winner this season, Kirk could pick up his second victory on the West Coast swing.

Kirk is currently ranked 7th in strokes gained: approach, 16th in proximity from 125-150 yards, and he’s 4th in Par 4 scoring.

Recent form has Kirk in a good place, and he’s played well at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am in the past, finishing as high as solo second place in 2013.

Pick: Kirk – Outright Winner (+9000) DraftKings

Nick Taylor

Fun Fact: Nick Taylor was the last wire-to-wire winner of the Pebble Beach Pro-Am back in 2020.

Taylor is another ball striker extraordinaire, sitting 41st in strokes gained: approach and 32nd in proximity from 125-150 yards.

After his 19-under victory in 2020, Taylor has followed with a 4-under T39 (2021), an 11-under T14 (2022), and an 8-under T20 (2023).

The 35-year old veteran is from Winnipeg, Canada and he played his college golf at the University of Washington. I don’t think he’ll be bothered by cooler temps, wind, or rain.

Taylor missed the 13-under cut line by two strokes at the American Express, but finished T7 at the Sony Open in Hawaii, so I’d say his scoring ability is in a strong place right now.

Pick: Taylor – Outright Winner (+12000) FanDuel


About the author

A fan of both the Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers, which is rare! Thomas provides sports betting content with the intent to educate and enter...

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