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2024 The Mexico Open At Vidanta Odds & Picks

Thomas Snodgrass

Updated: Feb 20, 2024

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After the star-studded field at Riviera Country Club last week, the PGA Tour heads south of the border for the Mexico Open, and the 132-man field for this week will feature only four golfers in the Top 50 of the Official World Golf Ranking.

Tony Finau, 24th in the Official World Golf Ranking, and defending Mexico Open champ, headlines the field. The other three golfers ranked inside the Top 50 of the Official World Golf Ranking include Nicolai Hojgaard (34th), Emiliano Grillo (40th), and Ryan Fox (41st).

In 2023, Finau compiled a 24-under tournament in last year’s Mexico Open, so expect golfers to go low once again in pursuit of dethroning Finau.

The resort-style course offers wide open fairways, providing ample opportunity for golfers to keep it in the short grass from the tee box.

Vidanta Vallarta is a par 71 and tips at 7,456, so even if drives split the fairway, there will be plenty of longer irons being pulled out of the bag to reach the greens on long approach shots.

With the rough set at a manageable 2 ½ inches, golf balls rolling through the fairway and past the first cut shouldn’t be detrimental.

Vidanta has five par 3s, with the back nine featuring three par 3s and three par fives each, which will put a huge emphasis on those longer irons on the way in.

The long ball will be favored, so I’ll be putting emphasis on golfers that can get it on the dance floor from 175 to 200 yards and those that can putt well.

With scores typically flirting with 20-under or lower, golfers can’t have an off-week putting if they want to find success here.

This week’s winner will receive 500 FedEx Cup points and entry into the Players Championship and the Masters, and they will receive entry into the season’s remaining Signature Events on Tour.

Oh, and the winner gets $1.386 million.

Let’s check out the betting boards for the 2024 Mexico Open at Vidanta and highlight some golfers that could collect the win and all of the perks that come with it.

All golfer selections are paired with the best odds!

Top Of The Board

Tony Finau

When selecting a golfer to win the Mexico Open, Finau’s name has to be one of the first names mentioned.

Since the tournament began in 2022, Finau has finished T2 and followed with a victory, and he has a scoring average of exactly 66 strokes, which is an average of 5-under per round.

Finau appears to be in good form right now, finishing T19 at the Genesis last week, his second Top 20 in his last three events, also picking up a T6 in the Farmers at a comparable course in Torrey Pines South Course.

This tournament favors long hitters, and that should suit Finau well, as it has in the past.

Finau is currently 17th in strokes gained: off-the-tee and he is 36th on TOUR in approaches from greater than 200 yards.

The track record, the current form, the numbers, and the somewhat weaker field have all signs pointing at Finau to defend his Mexico Open title.

Pick: Finau – Outright Winner | Best Odds: (+800) bet365

Finau For Top 20 | Best Odds: (-175) bet365

Stephan Jaeger

Jaeger Bombs!

Just as Finau finished highly at the comparable Farmers Insurance Open, Jaeger finished even higher at T3.

With the long ball needed this week, Jaeger’s distance should give him an edge over a majority of the field.

Although Jaeger’s accuracy from the tee box could be better, he is currently 14th in driving distance and 50th in strokes gained: off-the-tee.

Naturally, the long irons have been a strength in Jaeger’s bag as well as the 34-year old German sits at number 15 on TOUR in approach from 175-200 yards and number five from 150-175 yards, too.

Overall, Jaeger is ranked 49th on TOUR in proximity, and is currently 46th in strokes gained: total.

Jaeger’s putting has been in a decent place, gaining 0.126 against the field with the flatstick and ranking in 76th in strokes gained: putting.

Golfers will need to go low this week, and with Jaeger sitting 27th in birdie or better percentage, he could collect his first win on TOUR this week.

In two trips to Vidanta, Jaeger has finished 10-under T15 and 11-under T18.

Time to go lower.

Pick: Jaeger – Outright Winner | Best Odds: (+2200) DraftKings

Jaeger For Top 20 | Best Odds: (+125) DraftKings

Middle Of The Board

Keith Mitchell

Unlike Finau and Jaeger, Keith Mitchell will be making his first appearance at Vidanta.

The last time we saw Mitchell, he finished T17 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open carding four straight rounds of sub-70 golf.

One thing that has Mitchell primed to excel once again is his long irons.

In approach from greater than 200 yards, Mitchell is fourth on TOUR, and he’s also 12th in approach from an even longer range of 250-275 yards.

With a few par 5s stretching over 600 yards, Mitchell may be able to pick up a few strokes where others can not.

The ball striking has been too good to ignore for Mitchell, sitting eighth in greens in regulation, and 11th in proximity.

Getting off the tee shouldn’t be a problem either, as Mitchell is fourth in strokes gained: off-the-tee, and 46th in average distance.

Losing strokes to the field on the greens this season, Mitchell needs putts to start dropping more regularly to card some really low numbers.

Pick: Mitchell – Outright Winner | Best Odds: (+2800) BetMGM

Mitchell For Top 20 | Best Odds: (+137) bet365

Ryo Hisatsune

The 21-year-old from Japan kicked off the year in solid form, carding nine consecutive rounds of sub-70, but has since cooled off.

Now is the right time to jump back on the Hisatsune bandwagon.

Averaging 296.7 yards off the tee won’t wow anyone like it did back in the ‘90s, but it’s still long enough for Hisatsune to score here at Vidanta.

It’s Hisatsune’s long irons that have been the better swing in his bag as he is currently 47th in approach from greater than 200 yards and 16th from 250-to-275 yards out.

There is a large collection of bunkers at Vidanta, which shouldn’t be too much of an issue for Hisatsune, currently 20th on TOUR in sand save percentage.

Hisatsune is gaining strokes on the field in nearly every putting category, so his putter shouldn’t fail him this week on these paspalum greens.

Golfers will need to score this week, and that has been one of Hisatsune’s strengths, at least in the earlier portion of this season.

Hisatsune is 30th on TOUR in birdie or better percentage and holds the 20th-best scoring average of 68.57 strokes.

A win at such a young age could catapult Hisatsune’s career.

Pick: Hisatsune – Outright Winner | Best Odds: (+4500) FanDuel

Hisatsune For Top 20 | Best Odds: (+200) bet365

Bottom Of The Board

Andrew Novak

Andrew Novak is certainly not a big name on TOUR, but he has found success at the Mexico Open over the last two years.

In two visits to Vidanta, Novak has finished 10-under T15 and 5-under T49 with a scoring average of 69.13 strokes.

Novak fired a 66 in round one in 2022 and a 67 in round one in 2023, so he could get off on the right foot once again in 2024.

After missing three consecutive cuts to start the season, Novak finished 13-under T8 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, so he could be trending in the right direction.

While the results aren’t there, the numbers suggest some better times ahead for Novak, and this week, he’s a decent fit for Vidanta.

Although Novak’s been erratic from the tee box, he is still 26th in greens in regulation, 10th in strokes gained: approach, seventh in proximity, and THIRD in approach from greater than 200 yards.

In terms of long irons, Novak is a great fit.

Novak has had everything but the scoring, which is everything.

Some experience could go a long way for Novak as he has some general idea of how to attack this golf course.

Now, it’s time to put it all together.

Pick: Novak – Outright Winner | Best Odds: (+12500) Caesars

Novak For Top 20 | Best Odds: (+400) FanDuel

Francesco Molinari

For my deepest play this week, I’ll back the former “Champion Golfer of the Year”, Francesco Molinari.

Molinari has played just one event on TOUR this season, posting a T73 at the Farmers in late January, but he did show some promise on the DP World Tour.

In the event prior to the Farmers, Molinari finished 15-under solo fifth at the Dubai Invitational, so carding low scores is not a distant memory for the 41-year-old Italian.

With his back injuries becoming more of a distant memory instead, Molinari can get back to focusing on his game.

At the Farmers, Molinari hit 35-of-56 fairways (62.5%) which was tied for the 16th best in the field, and he gained strokes on most putting categories.

Hitting the fairways is always a step in the right direction, and finishing up on the greens is a bonus.

If Molinari can produce a low score, like the 15-under he posted at the Dubai Invitational, he could be an interesting wager at over 200-1 odds.

In his lone trip at Vidanta in the 2023 Mexico Open, Molinari shot 10-under and finished at T24, with three of Molinari’s four rounds being three-under 68s.

The potential is there.

Pick: Molinari – Outright Winner | Best Odds: (+22500) Caesars

Molinari For Top 20 | Best Odds: (+550) Caesars

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