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2024 Farmers Insurance Open Odds & Picks

Thomas Snodgrass

Updated: Jan 23, 2024


The Farmers Insurance Open will tee off on Wednesday and run through Saturday, so be sure to get your golf bets in a day earlier than usual.

Bettors looking to take a swing on Nick Dunlap, the amateur that won the American Express, will have to wait for another tournament, as Dunlap has withdrawn from the Farmers Insurance Open.

A well deserved hiatus for an amatuer-turned-winner that set a tournament record 29-under, received zero FedEx Cup points, and gave runner-up Christian Bezuidenhout a $1.5 million check.

The 20-year-old University of Alabama sophomore still has a fun story to tell down in Tuscaloosa.

The 156-man field for the Farmers will be chock-full of major champions and names circling the top of the official world golf rankings, so even though a few longshots have taken home some hardware this season (Dunlap, Grayson Murray, Chris Kirk), the game’s best should provide excitement on a tougher track.

A standard 36-hole cut returns this week, with the top 65 and ties sticking around for Friday and Saturday.

This week’s tourney will be hosted by Torrey Pines Golf Club in San Diego, and the first two rounds will alternate between Torrey Pines North Course and Torrey Pines South Course.

Torrey Pines North is 7,258 yards and presents a much easier challenge, with the field averaging 2.1 strokes lower than the South Course.

The South Course offers a major-like test to the field and tips at 7,765 yards, with last season’s scoring average of 73.62 strokes proving to be the most difficult track in a non-major.

Avoiding mistakes will be key, so looking for golfers that excel in bogey avoidance will be paramount; almost the complete opposite of last week’s target practice.

Golfers who find the fairway from the tee box will be key as well, with some rough around the course approaching four inches.

The thick rough around the greens will present a challenge, so look out for golfers who are scrambling well.

Experience will play a factor on this course, too.

Eight of the last nine winners have made at least six visits to Torrey Pines, including the last six winners.

It may be best to avoid first-time visitors to the course.

Let’s take a look at the betting boards and find some potential winners and solid finishers for the Farmers Insurance Open. 

Top Of The Board

Collin Morikawa

If experience is going to be a factor, then Morikawa fits the bill.

When Torrey Pines hosted the 2021 U.S. Open, Morikawa finished T-4.

In last year’s edition of the Farmers Insurance Open, Morikawa netted a third-place finish, following a T-21 in his Torrey Pines debut in 2020.

While key statistics like total driving (87th) and strokes gained: putting (148th) don’t seem to favor the California native here, Morikawa already has a T-5 finish under his belt at The Sentry in Maui.

I’ll back the pedigree and experience over somewhat misleading early-season statistics.

Pick: Morikawa – Outright Winner (+1100) FanDuel   

Max Homa

The defending champ!

There’s a strong sign of experience.

Homa needed seven trips to Torrey Pines before he finally hoisted the trophy, a growing pattern among the last six Farmers Insurance victors.

It’s early, but the numbers suggest that Homa is off to a strong start, sitting 19th in bogey avoidance and 8th in scrambling.

In a tough test like Torrey Pines, limiting mistakes and making par can gain strokes over the field, and that should benefit the steady defending champ.

Four of Homa’s six PGA Tour wins have come in his home state of California.

Slowly becoming one of the elite players on the PGA Tour, I’m confident in Homa running it back.

Pick: Homa – Outright Winner (+1200) BetRivers

Middle Of The Board

Sahith Theegala

The third consecutive California native I’m backing in San Diego.

Theegala has started the season strong in his short game, sitting 27th in bogey avoidance, 54th in strokes gained: putting, and 39th in scrambling.

In two turns at Torrey Pines, Theegala has a T25 finish in 2022 and a T4 finish in 2023.

Theegala kicked his season off with a runner-up finish at Kapalua, and he’s traditionally been a stronger finisher in the early West Coast swing.

There are worse values around him on the board.

Pick: Theegala – Outright Winner (+3500) DraftKings

Harris English

English missed the cut here last season, but the veteran ball striker has solid experience at Torrey Pines.

A loss to Jason Day in a playoff kept English out of the Farmers Insurance winner’s circle in 2015, but he backed that performance with 14th, 8th and 2nd place finishes since.

English even pushed for his first major title in the 2021 U.S. Open, finishing 3rd, when all four rounds were played at the tougher track in the South Course.

English is currently 29th in total driving, 47th in bogey avoidance and 14th in strokes gained: putting.

The experience and steady play could lead to a return to form for English at Torrey Pines.

Pick: English – Outright Winner (+5000) FanDuel

Bottom Of The Board

Akshay Bhatia

The California lefty has the consistency across the board to limit mistakes and gain some strokes against the field.

Bhatia sits 37th in bogey avoidance and 34th in strokes gained: putting, which should lead to a number of pars, which could play as birdies this week.

Sitting 58th in total driving and 46th in strokes gained: approach, Bhatia should find enough fairways and greens to stick around for the weekend.

If Bhatia can get the flatstick rolling, his name could be near the top of the leaderboard this Saturday.

The 21-year-old lacks the experience, but his steady overall game could make him a contender.

Pick: Bhatia – Outright Winner (+10000) FanDuel

Emiliano Grillo

In the last five times that Grillo has teed it up at Torrey Pines for the Farmers Insurance Open, he hasn’t finished any higher than T-44, which came in last year’s edition.

That followed three consecutive missed cuts and a T-52 finish in 2019.

If we go all the way back to 2018, Grillo finished T-12, so while the finishing positions haven’t been astounding, the experience is there for the 31-year-old Argentine.

Grillo has historically been burned by subpar putting, but he’s currently 11th in strokes gained: putting, so I’ll back him while his putts are falling.

At this time, Grillo is 37th in bogey avoidance, and he’ll need to continue leaving squares off the scorecard to compete this week.

A checkered history here, but it’s experience nonetheless.

Pick: Grillo – Outright Winner (+12500) Caesars

To Finish Top 20

Sahith Theegala

Echoing what I mentioned earlier about Theegala, he makes a great play for a Top 20 finish.

The worst number in key statistics for Theegala is his 137th ranking in total driving, but the Pepperdine product is still 50th in strokes gained: off the tee.

With experience on this track, I’m backing Theegala to know where to attack this course compared to some first-time visitors.

Pick: Theegala – To Finish Top 20 (+160) BetMGM

Stephan Jaeger

Golfers will need to bomb it this week to gain an edge, and appropriately, Jaeger bombs.

The German is 13th in total driving, ranking 19th in total distance and 13th in accuracy.

Pairing well with Jaeger’s driving is his strokes gained: putting, currently 24th on Tour. Hitting the fairways and cleaning up on the greens is always a recipe for success.

Jaeger struggles when it comes to approaching the greens, but the long hitter should have an opportunity to find the green in two shots on some of Torrey Pines’ generous Par 5s.

Losing a stroke here and there will hurt, but Jaeger has the game to gain it back on longer holes.

Pick: Jaeger – To Finish Top 20 (+275) BetMGM

Sam Ryder

Ryder has not teed it up yet this season, but getting his 2024 season underway at Torrey Pines should work all of the shots in his bag.

In Ryder’s last five turns at the Farmers Insurance Open, he’s gone T-43, MC, T-10, MC, T-4, with last seasons’ 9-under, fourth place finish tying him with Theegala and Sungjae Im.

Last season, Ryder finished 24th in strokes gained: approach and 14th in strokes gained: putting, so finding Torrey Pines’ small greens and finishing well on them should work.

The up-and-down finishes at the Farmers Insurance Open won’t provide a lot of confidence in backing Ryder, but the experience is there, and so is the ability to find the greens at a higher pace than most of the field.

Pick: Ryder – To Finish Top 20 (+450) DraftKings

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