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2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational Odds & Picks

Thomas Snodgrass

Updated: Mar 5, 2024


The Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill will be the PGA Tour’s fourth Signature Event of the season.

Meaning there will be more money up for grabs with a $20 million purse, $4 million to the winner, and more FedEx Cup points available, with 700 points going to the winner.

The Signature Event will feature a trimmed field with only 80 golfers teeing it up, but there will still be a cut on Friday afternoon, with top 50 and ties, and any golfer within 10 strokes, making it to the final two rounds on the weekend.

Last year’s victor at Bay Hill was Kurt Kitayama, surviving atop the leaderboard after shooting a final round of even par, finishing at 9-under.

The two closest golfers in contention entering the final round were Viktor Hovland and Scottie Scheffler, both at 8-under T2.

Both elite ball strikers crumbled on Sunday, with Scheffler dropping a stroke and finishing 7-under T4 and Hovland going 3-over and finishing 5-under T10.

Kitayama broke an eight-year long streak of winners having a previous finish of T17 or better at Bay Hill, so historically, experience plays here.

Much like the Arnold Palmer drink, the perfect mix of ice tea and lemonade, Bay Hill also requires a perfect mix for success; the mix of precision from tee-to-green and putting.

Bay Hill’s four Par 3’s will test any golfer’s scoring ability or bogey avoidance ability, and any strokes lost on the short holes will have to be gained on the beatable four Par 5’s.

The last five winners have scored a combined 41-under par, but on the Par 5’s, those winners were a combined 34-under, which is 83% of their scoring!

The greens at Bay Hill are typically in the top-10 most difficult to hit in terms of greens in regulation year after year, even if the greens are massive.

Finishing up on Bay Hill’s large greens will be paramount, as Kitayama (2023: winner) and Harris English (2023: T2) can attest, as both finished as the top two for the week in strokes gained: putting.

Let’s take a look at the betting boards and highlight a few golfers that can tame the humbling track of Bay Hill.

All picks are paired with the best odds!

Top Of The Board

Scottie Scheffler is No. 1 in the Official World Golf Ranking, so naturally he sits atop the betting boards, with +650 on nearly every sportsbook.

Scheffler’s putting has been pretty bad lately, ranking 144th on Tour in strokes gained: putting.

Even if he’s the best ball striker in the game today, I’ll fade Scheffler at this price until his putting comes around.

Rory McIlroy (+900)

In nine career visits to Bay Hill, Rory McIlroy has finished with six Top-10s, including a victory, and never finishing worse than T27.

That’s quite a track record.

McIlroy has a birdie or better on 24 of 36 Par 5’s played this season, placing him eighth on Tour in birdie or better percentage on Par 5’s.

So, McIlroy should pick up plenty of shots on the scorable Par 5’s and make up any shots he may miss on other more challenging holes.

With only three events played on Tour thus far, McIlroy’s season stats are slightly skewed at the moment, but the No. 2 golfer in the world is ranked first on Tour in strokes gained: off-the-tee, and 35th in proximity.

The numbers behind McIlroy’s putting are pretty ugly at the moment, but with him playing a track he’s clearly enjoyed playing in the past, I’ll disregard McIlroy’s current putting stroke for his past performance and pedigree.

Pick: McIlroy – Outright Winner (+900) bet365

McIlroy For Top 20 | Best Odds: (-250) FanDuel

Jordan Spieth (+2200)

Jordan Spieth finished 7-under T4 in last year’s edition of the Arnold Palmer Invitational, giving Spieth two T4 placements in two career visits to Bay Hill.

Spieth has a great fit for this course, and in a limited sample, the right experience.

Spieth has 11 of his 12 rounds being sub-70’s and the only number really working against the No. 13 golfer in the world right now is his strokes gained: approach ranking of 103rd.

As unspectacular as Spieth’s approach has been, he’s still third in strokes gained: total, seventh in strokes gained: putting, third in greens in regulation and 45th in proximity.

Spieth’s also 6th in scrambling, which should fit well on a course where pars on some holes can play as a birdie.

Speaking of birdies, Spieth is second on Tour in birdie average, and third in bogey avoidance.

That’s a strong combo.

Also, Spieth is 12 in the all important Par 5 scoring.

The 30-year-old is on the right track and it should all come together this week in Florida.

Pick: Spieth – Outright Winner (+2200) DraftKings

Spieth For Top 20 | Best Odds: (-120) FanDuel

Middle Of The Board

Tom Kim (+6000)

Sometimes, a player with a high ceiling just isn’t playing to his potential, and right now, that man is Tom Kim.

Despite Kim’s form not being in the best place, he’s still 19th in Par 5 scoring average and has one of the better scrambling games on Tour.

Kim has still made five of six cuts this season, with his only missed cut coming in the birdie-fest American Express, even after firing 11-under par.

This week’s tournament will be more about saving par than breaking par, and that should better suit Kim’s game.

For a glimpse on what Kim can be, here’s a comparison of Kim’s stats from last season and 2024.

StatKim’s Ranking – Last SeasonKim’s Ranking – 2024
Strokes Gained: Total19th120th
Strokes Gained: Putting73rd140th
Strokes Gained: Approach10th86th
Greens In Regulation %29th77th
Scoring Average10th78th

The resurgence of Tom Kim is coming, and it could be this week.

I’m going to try and get ahead of the books with this pick.

Pick: Kim – Outright Winner (+6000) FanDuel

Kim For Top 20 | Best Odds: (+165) DraftKings

Wyndham Clark (+6000)

When looking for players that can come out on top in a tournament that can have U.S. Open-like scoring, why not back the defending U.S. Open champ?

Wyndham Clark’s ascent up the Official World Golf Ranking currently has him slotted at No. 7 in the world, so anything above 50-1 odds seems like a bargain.

Clark finished 2-under T34 in the Arnold Palmer Invitational last year, and his game fits this course pretty well.

Clark plays a natural fade, with his ball typically tailing right, which works for Bay Hill, considering that most hazards on the course are on the left side; Clark should involuntarily avoid some dangerous spots on the course.

As his game currently sits, Clark is gaining strokes on the field in almost every statistical category, and he’s at an impressive ranking of eighth on Tour in Par 5 scoring.

Clark is 32nd in strokes gained: total, 18th on Tour in birdie average and 44th in bogey avoidance, so he should be able to survive this track better than most.

Pick: Clark – Outright Winner (+6000) FanDuel

Clark For Top 20 | Best Odds: (+175) DraftKings

Bottom Of The Board

Tom Hoge (+8000)

In his last three runs at Bay Hill, Tom Hoge has been a grinder, not shooting sub par, but has sandwiched a T32 between two missed cuts, but this week, Hoge could become the hero.

Back in 2020, Hoge produced a 3-over tournament at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, but still finished a more-than-respectable T15.

Even though Hoge hasn’t been in contention on Sunday, he’s got plenty of experience at Bay Hill, and as I previously mentioned, eight of the last nine winners have a previous finish of T17 or better on this track.

Hoge fits the bill.

The Arnold Palmer is historically a ball-striker-dominated tournament, and right now, Hoge is 4th in strokes gained: approach, 28th in greens in regulation, and third in proximity.

Hoge has also done solid work with the flatstick lately, sitting 51st in strokes gained: putting.

And the 34-year-old sits at a decent 42nd-ranking in bogey avoidance and 36th in Par 5 scoring.

In his last four tourneys, Hoge is on a T6, T17, solo 8th, and T28 run, and that strong run should continue in the Florida swing.

Pick: Hoge – Outright Winner (+8000) Caesars

Hoge For Top 20 | Best Odds: (+210) FanDuel

J.T. Poston (+10000)

The sportsbooks seem to have differing opinions on Poston this week, with Poston’s odds sitting as high as 100-1 on FanDuel, but as low as 66-1 on BetMGM.

By shopping around, Poston makes for a decent play on BetMGM, but a great wager on FanDuel!

Poston is now No. 40 in the Official World Golf Ranking, and in seven events played this season, he has collected five Top 20’s.

Not bad for a golfer with longshot odds in a trimmed field.

In his last two turns at Bay Hill, Poston has recorded a combined 17-over, but that was in 2020 and 2021, and his career is in a much better place in 2024.

Poston is 30th in strokes gained: total, 44th in strokes gained: putting, 12th in greens in regulation, and 9th in scoring average.

Of the 82 Par 5’s that Poston has played in 2024, he has picked up a score of birdie or better on 52 of them, which is 67% of Par 5’s (6th-best on Tour), so Poston should be able to make up for any mishaps on the Par 4’s and 3’s.

Also, with Bay Hill having some of the most difficult Par 3’s on Tour, his ranking of 18th in Par 3 scoring average could give Poston a better chance to leave the short holes with a better score than much of the field.

Pick: Poston – Outright Winner (+10000) FanDuel

Poston For Top 20 | Best Odds: (+230) FanDuel


About the author

A fan of both the Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers, which is rare! Thomas provides sports betting content with the intent to educate and enter...

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