Browns Vs. Texans Could Decide Coach Of The Year

The Coach of the Years Award could be decided on Sunday when the Browns visit the Texans in Houston.

That’s because it’s not a best coach award but the award for the coach of the Most Improved Team.

To summarize, the average winner this century has had an improvement of six wins over the team’s prior year’s record. Who the best coach is hardly seems to matter at all.

Consider that Andy Reid has never won the award for the Chiefs. And there have only been three repeat winners.

In the absence of a consensus Most Improved Team or if a team does something historic like going undefeated (2007 Patriots), then the widely-regarded best coach/coach of the best team could win.

This year, that would be Kyle Shanahan, who is +450 on DraftKings, the fourth favorite, trailing Dan Campbell (Lions, +200), Shane Steichen (Colts, +300), and Demeco Ryans (Texans, +350).

Browns coach Kevin Stefanski is the sixth favorite at +1000.

But he’s a three-point favorite to win in Houston, which would raise Cleveland’s record to 10-5 with remaining games at home against the Jets (where they’ll be a heavy favorite) and at the Bengals, more of a toss-up game.

So that’s a path to a 12-5 record, a five-win improvement over 2022, in line with the model.

And of course, this will have been achieved with four starting QBs, which is quite the narrative.

But if the Texans upset the Browns at home with their backup QB (C.J. Stroud is expected to miss the game with a concussion), then Ryans’ candidacy is clearly elevated as the Texans will be in position to win the AFC South, given the fading Jaguars (possibly without Trevor Lawrence, concussion, in Week 16). 

Games Going Chalk Would Boost Stefanski

Furthermore, the Colts are 2.5-point underdogs at Atlanta. A loss would lower Steichen’s odds considerably, one would assume.

The Colts would then be 8-7 and four wins better than 2022 with remaining games at home against the Raiders and Texans.

While Steichen can claim to be doing this with his backup QB, it’s less impressive to win with Garnder Minshew than a rookie who was viewed as a project, Week 1 starter Anthony Richardson.

So the backup narrative could hurt Steichen.

If Week 16 goes chalk, Stefanski will be the big beneficiary in Award futures.

He’d likely move ahead of Steichen and Ryans, or much closer to them at a minimum.

That leaves Shanahan. But again, all things being equal, voters hate giving the award to the coach of the best team if that team was also very good the year before.

And the Niners were 13-4 in 2022 (they’re 11-3 entering Week 15).

Shanahan’s candidacy is benefiting from no single Most Improved Team emerging, but that could change after Sunday.

Should Dan Campbell be the Favorite?

What about Campbell? The Lions were 9-8 last year and could finish 13-4.

They are 10-4 with two games against the Vikings and a game at Dallas.

This week, they’re three-point favorites at Minnesota.

They’re probably finishing 12-5 at best and maybe 11-6, which doesn’t put them in either the most-improved or best-team buckets.

They also don’t have any narrative besides being the Lions; but that was more of a story in 2022, when they had a better case for Most Improved Team.

Campbell is out at 11-6 and just three games better at 12-5, which would put him behind the Browns in wins relative to 2022. And again, Cleveland has had FOUR starting QBs.

The value this week for gamblers who believe the Browns are going to beat Case Keenum and the Texans is not to bet the game but to bet Stefanski at +1000 for Coach of the Year.