MLB Best Player Props Today – July 4th, 2025

With a full Friday slate, there are plenty of exploitable matchups to target for MLB player props today. The focus remains on starting pitchers because I’ve been much better at projecting those on the mound than those at the plate. Today’s bets feature two earned run props and one outs prop. 

We’ll start with Milwaukee Brewers’ starting pitcher Quinn Priester in a favorable spot against the Miami Marlins, then move on to Houston Astros’ righty Lance McCullers Jr. in a tough matchup vs. the Los Angeles Dodgers, followed by Arizona Diamondbacks’ lefty Eduardo Rodriguez taking on the Kansas City Royals.

Keep reading to find my best MLB player props for July 4, 2025.

Note: Odds were correct at the time of writing.

Quinn Priester Under 2.5 Earned Runs (-150) at bet365

Priester has been one of the biggest surprises of the season, registering a 3.35 ERA and 1.23 WHIP with 28 walks and 61 strikeouts in 78 innings.

We saw the Brewers’ righty have a dominant June, featuring a 1.98 ERA and 1.02 WHIP with five walks and 29 strikeouts in 27.1 innings. The key improvement here is in walk rate and strikeout rate.

These numbers are backed up by advanced metrics as well. Since June 1st, Priester has a 2.71 SIERA, which ranks third in MLB, behind only Garrett Crochet and Zack Wheeler. 

If we go back even further, since May 7th, Priester has given up two earned runs or fewer in eight of his last 10 outings. This includes a dominant outing in his most recent start, with seven scoreless innings and 11 strikeouts vs. the Rockies.

This is why under 2.5 earned runs looks so enticing tonight against the Marlins. Miami currently ranks 23rd with a 99 wRC+ against righties this season, making this an exploitable matchup, especially in a pitcher-friendly environment like LoanDepot Park.

While we’re paying some juice at -150 odds, this is a good deal compared to what we see elsewhere. This prop is priced as short as -160 at DraftKings and -170 at Fliff.

Odds Comparison for Quinn Priester Under 2.5 Earned Runs

Sportsbook	Odds
bet365	-150
Hard Rock Bet	-155
DraftKings	-160
Caesars	-160
Fliff	-170

Lance McCullers Jr. Under 15.5 Outs (-150) at bet365

McCullers Jr. has been inconsistent in his return to the mound following a long layoff due to injury.

We’ve seen some flashes of brilliance, including 12 strikeouts against the Athletics and six scoreless innings vs. the Pittsburgh Pirates. But we’ve also seen some blowups, most recently against the Chicago Cubs, including eight runs in 3.1 innings.

All of that adds up to poor ratios, including a 6.61 ERA and a 1.62 WHIP. The advanced stats indicate that McCullers deserves better — as highlighted by a 4.24 SIERA — but it’s hard to see that happening against the Dodgers tonight.

Los Angeles has posted a 123 wRC+ (1st) and 10.4 BB% (1st) against righties. In other words, not only can they score runs at an elite rate, but they work up the opposing pitch count by drawing walks.

That’s going to make it difficult for McCullers to go 5.1 innings or more. The Astros’ righty has gone under 15.5 outs in six of eight starts this season.

We’re getting a bit of a discount at bet365 (-145) compared to other sites like DraftKings (-155), making this prop worth a look tonight.

Odds Comparison for Lance McCullers Jr. Under 15.5 Outs

Sportsbook	Odds
bet365	-145
Hard Rock Bet	-150
DraftKings	-155

Eduardo Rodriguez Under 2.5 Earned Runs (-140) at DraftKings

Rodriguez is starting to get in a rhythm, allowing two earned runs or fewer in all five of his starts since returning from injury on June 6th. In fact, E-Rod has allowed a combined two earned runs in his last three outings. This includes six scoreless innings and 10 strikeouts against the White Sox on June 23rd.

During this stretch, Rodriguez has posted a respectable 3.82 SIERA, so this hot streak is supported by advanced metrics.

Tonight is a good spot for this hot streak to keep going, as Rodriguez takes on a Royals team that struggles against lefties.

Kansas City has put up a 66 wRC+ against left-handers this season, which is tied with the Colorado Rockies for 30th in MLB.

It also helps that we’re getting a terrific price on this prop at -140 at DraftKings, especially when you consider that this is as expensive as -160 at bet365.

With that in mind, let’s ride with E-Rod to go under 2.5 earned runs for the sixth consecutive start.

Odds Comparison for Eduardo Rodriguez Under 2.5 Earned Runs

Sportsbook	Odds
DraftKings	-140
Caesars	-154
bet365	-160
Hard Rock Bet	-160