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|‣||Key Numbers In Football Betting|
|‣||Teasers And Betting Markets|
|‣||Teasers Vs. Totals Bets|
Teasers are a betting option that has garnered quite a lot of attention in recent times. Basically, a teaser enables the bettor to parlay multiple games with adjusted points for a reduced payout.
For example, the Steelers are -10 favorites against the Bengals, and the Seahawks are 2.5 favorites over the Rams. The bettor can go to a six-point teaser and grab Pittsburgh at -4 and the Seahawks at +4.5.
This way, the bettor enhances the chance of winning both bets, thus getting the payout of the teaser.
If both bets cover, you win at the standard -110 payout. However, if one bet loses, the whole teaser draws dead. Remember, a teaser is a parlay of sorts, with the fact that you “buy” points in favor of the team you’re betting on.
Key numbers are significant for NFL football betting. Because of this, the teaser can be very profitable on-point spreads. If you manage to move many teams through the key numbers of 3 and 7, you are in the sweet spot of teasers betting. Three points represent a field goal, and seven equals a touchdown.
Many NFL games will often be decided by one of those margins, so getting to play around those gives a boost to win the bet.
Teasers not only buy you points. You can also opt to adjust totals. If you want to bet on an over, you can move the total down and make it more likely to happen.
For example, you can take an over and swift it 10-points, meaning that if the original total was 39 points, you can drag it down to 29. It’s more than likely that NFL teams can score 29 points combined.
But it’s not always that easy; sportsbooks are not looking to give you money for free. They are not called “teasers” for being simple. They get that name because they tease you into going all-in on them and strike out.
For public bettors, having the ability to turn a big total or spread into a more “achievable” one is the start of the downfall. Remember, it’s the NFL, the land of “any given Sunday.” If taken lightly, teasers could bring your bankroll down in a heartbeat.
We’ve seen teasers are quite popular on point spreads. How do they fare on totals, though?
According to Bet Labs, the NFL regular season games have cashed the over 2,010 times, the under on 2,019 occasions, and seen a push 67 times. This is in a timeframe between 2003-2019.
Markets don’t mess around with this. Remember, totals are one of the biggest betting markets, so the bookmakers put genuine effort into them. They do their research so bettors can’t take advantage of them.
The 50% win rate for totals makes them unprofitable long term. Remember, totals need to win at a 52.4% success in a standard -110 juice to break even.
But those are totals without teasers. How does teasing the totals affect the numbers above?
To break even on a two-team, six-point teaser, a bettor also needs to win 52.4% of the time. This is due to those teasers also paying out at -110. To cash on them, both bets on the teaser have to win.
This means the bettor needs each bet to win 72.4% of the time. If you want to get technical, it’s the square root of 52.4%.
However, even when reducing each total in the 16-year sample by six points (because of the teasers), it leaves a 68% win rate for the over totals. This means the bettor wins only 46.2% of the teasers played. This is way below the original overs teasers, which offer the same -110 payout.
Simply put, a bettor would win an average of 4.6 bets per every 10 made, that’s way below the “break even” line.
Within the same 16-year period, if you add six points to the unders, the win rate is still 68%. So, it’s not like the unders will get you higher chances of winning; they stay virtually the same.
It’s pretty clear now that teasers aren’t very profitable for totals. In reality, they’re not very profitable on point spreads when you are out of the key numbers either. This opens a new question: what happens with key numbers on totals?
The most common combined totals in the NFL since 2003 are 41, 37, and 44. Each comes up under 4% of the time, which is not a high percentage itself.
A six-point teaser can get you through two of those, a seven-point teaser gets you from one to another, and a 10-point teaser goes through all three.
Even in a 10-point teaser, the win percentage needed to become profitable is still 9% away. The closest scenario is the seven-point teaser, which falls 2.8% below the mark to break even. It’s not a good look.
The unders are as follow:
Again, the seven-point teasers are the ones to come closer. But even then, the percentage needed is 3.8% below. Even further than with the overs.
The highest margin is the 10-point teaser, a full 10% gap between reality and the win percentage needed to become a profitable bet long term.
By this point, you can have the advice on not betting totals in teasers long-term. But now, you also have empirical evidence. Look at it this way, get to the most profitable individual bet: the under 37 (won 52.8% of the time).
Even if applying the seven-point teaser, it doesn’t reach the win percentage to be profitable.
The lesson to learn is that the oddsmakers are well aware of what they are doing, what they offer, and the likelihood of the outcome.
A totals teaser is not giving you any leverage over the sportsbooks.
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