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NFL Betting Strategies

NFL Betting Strategies

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Why Shopping For NFL Betting Odds Matters
Staying Objective In Your NFL Betting
Research Means More Wins When Betting on NFL Games

The NFL is watched and adored by millions, so it’s no surprise to find that those large numbers are also replicated in the sports betting world.

Football is such a big draw for American sportsbooks that it is currently the most popular sport by betting volume and thus boasts the biggest betting market.

Since billions are wagered every season in NFL games, it’s safe to say that there is a lot at stake. So bettors need to have a cautious approach if they want to make money during the season, and that’s where betting strategies come in.

Having strategies will go a long way in ensuring long-term profit.

Most of the successful pro bettors implement strategies of their own that have been tweaked to perfection—and such strategies are the ones that keep the money rolling in.

So here are a few NFL betting strategies and tips of our own that should help keep your bankroll in the green.

Fading The Public

Fading the public simply means going against what the media and public expect to happen.

This doesn’t mean that you blindly fade the public, but instead look for situations where public perception may have led certain picks to be overpriced.

When the public strongly favors one side, a lot of the money ends up going to that side. When the bookies take notice, they always shift lines and betting odds to try and get some action on the other side of the bet. In such a situation, value is often created, and a cunning bettor can easily capitalize on this.

For example, say that the game between the New York Jets and the Buffalo Bills opens up with the following point spreads:

New York Jets -2

Buffalo Bills +2

90% of the bets that come in favor the Jets with the above spread, so the bookies decide to alter the spread to:

New York Jets -4

Buffalo Bills +4

This was originally a close game between two rivals, but the updated odds strongly suggest that the Jets are the massive favorites.

Because of this alteration, the spread has now created a lot of value for the Bills, and a bettor who had been looking to go against the public’s perception in the above bet now has a perfect avenue to fade the public.

Of course, fading the public isn’t a one-size-fits-all strategy, but it strongly hinges upon individual circumstances, so always judge accordingly.

Always Shop For The Best Odds

Value is one important factor that bettors should always prioritize.

Value means that you get the best lines and NFL betting odds possible. So if you wanted to opt for an over and see one sportsbook with the over/under line at 33.5 and another one offering the same over at 34.5, go for the one offering the better line.

One point may not seem like much, but bets can be won or lost over the slimmest of margins.

Additionally, odds matter as well. Some bettors usually shrug this off because the difference in odds may seem scant, but margins matter a lot in betting, especially for bettors who are in this for long-term gains.

So whenever possible, always compare lines and odds between sportsbooks before settling for one. Some sportsbooks even allow bettors to buy a hook (half a point), so such alternatives should always be considered whenever possible.

Locations And Time Zones Matter

One key thing that is sometimes overlooked is home-field advantage.

Statistically speaking, teams playing at home win 60% of the time, and such a percentage is too large to be overlooked! Two major factors that play into home-field advantage are:

  • Home teams have the majority of the crowd on their side
  • The traveling team often has to deal with travel fatigue

Time zones also closely tie in with a home-field advantage.

West coast teams traveling East don’t often struggle to adjust to the time difference, but East coast teams are forced to play later than they are used to when they travel West, which gives the Pacific Coast teams a slight advantage.

Don’t Always Rely On The Favorites

Many novice bettors tend to always cling to the favorites.

Sure, favorites may win most of the time, but those wins don’t account for much value when broken down.

In moneyline (team to win) bets, the odds of favorites are usually too low to rely on them consistently.

For example, let’s say that a certain NFL favorite has consistent weekly odds of -250. If you place ten wagers—each with the same stake—using those odds, you’d need to win 8 or more of those wagers; otherwise, your bankroll will be in the red.

Additionally, favorites don’t cover the spread as often as people think they do. NFL stats between the mid-2000s to late-2010s show that favorites managed to cover the spread less than 50% of the time.

This doesn’t mean that you ignore favorites but just don’t blindly back them. Try to see where the public is betting.

Try To Be As Objective As You Can

Many NFL bettors are fans themselves and have teams that they love and support. Sometimes, blind faith can lead one to believe that their team will win an upcoming game, which is usually the cause of downfall for many bettors.

If possible, try to be as objective as you can when analyzing games that include teams that you both hate and love. If you find it hard to be objective, try to avoid such games and instead analyze different ones.

Always Mix Up Your Bets

There are many different NFL betting markets for a reason. You might have a go-to choice, such as game totals or point spreads, but mixing things up will ensure that you learn the ins and outs of NFL betting.

One main reason bettors are always advised to diversify their bets is that value can be found in markets that one doesn’t anticipate. So even prop, and futures bets are worth keeping an eye on.

With time, you’ll find the perfect combination that will sustain you in the long term.

Limit The Number Of Selections In Your Parlay

Parlays are fun; there’s no doubt about that. The feeling of a 10-game parlay winning with the last play of a game is unmatchable.

However, the truth is that parlays with many selections have a lower chance of winning, a statistical truth that many bettors avoid facing.

Try limiting parlays to as few selections as possible; between 2-5 seems reasonable. You can still have parlays that exceed this recommendation, but if possible, reduce the stake on such parlays and consider them as fun side wagers that you don’t expect too much from.

Plan For The Long Term, Not The Short Term

The football season is a long and grueling period with lots of opportunities for bettors to capitalize on. The problem is some bettors fail to realize this and only bet with short-term goals in mind. This makes them avoid things like bankroll management since they are only after short-term gains.

Such bettors can easily make thousands one weekend and lose all of it plus more the next weekend simply because they didn’t strategize in advance.

Whenever possible, have long-term goals in mind. This means that you manage your bankroll efficiently, scout future games as early as possible, and avoid overreacting to losses.

One good thing about planning is that it helps instill a level of discipline that many bettors lack. So you can lose a bet this weekend, but since you’ve already planned adequately and have a certain level of discipline, you won’t tilt and make an emotional or drunk bet.

Incorporate Live Bets As Well

Live betting has been a huge plus since it was first introduced. Bettors can use live betting in many useful instances, such as when they cannot place a pre-game bet because of certain circumstances.

One instance that perfectly presents itself to live-betting is when one is unsure about a certain pick. Instead of placing a bet that you’re uncertain about, you can choose to wait and see how the first quarter plays out.

Using the knowledge gained from watching that quarter, you can wisely decide whether you still want to pursue the pick that you were originally eyeing.

Do Your Due Diligence

Hard work and bet research are two indispensable qualities that pro bettors constantly emphasize on. You can’t place a bet without doing the required research. How many injuries does team A have? How does this team’s linebacker perform on the road?

How does team B perform when their backup quarterback plays? Which key matchups will possibly decide this upcoming game? How has team C historically performed in the playoffs? Those are just a few questions that you should ask yourself when researching.

Hard work will make sure that you don’t rest on your laurels. Many pro bettors work tirelessly chasing lines and searching for information that even the bookies don’t know about. Such due diligence sets them at a level of their own and guarantees them profit at the end of the season.

Thirsty For More Betting Knowledge? Check Our Sports Betting Guides Hub.

About the author

Lukasz Strycharz | Web Manager – A flâneur who follows Formula One racing and dabbles in SEO and content in the iGaming and sports betting niche. The ...

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