Part III - The Taylor Swift Effect: Conclusions From Analyzing the Kelce and Swift Data

Published:Nov 6, 2026Nov 6, 20264 min read

Updated:Nov 6, 2026Nov 6, 2026

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Chiefs Stats Before and After Swift - image

In Part II of our Swift Effect Series, we examined Travis Kelce’s statistical output in the three years BEFORE and AFTER meeting Taylor Swift. Below, we provide our data analysis conclusions on the Taylor Swift Effect and the impact it had on Kelce. Travis Kelce Before vs. After Swift Stats 1 - image

Travis Kelce Before vs. After Swift Stats 1 - image

At first glance, the data doesn’t look great for Taylor. In all categories above, Kelce’s stats are down, some would say way down. However, several factors are at play.

Age. Kelce is 31 when we start to analyze him. 36 by the end.
His stats before Swift were at a pace no tight end has ever sustained long-term. A decline from that level at any point is always expected.
Previous Power-Couple Data Analytics show that new relationship stat declines are a thing

Kelce and Swift Are Not The First

David & Victoria Beckham
Mike Tyson & Robyn Givens
Wayne Gretzky & Janet Jones
Justin Verlander & Kate Upton
Many more before… and obviously more to come

Although they own the spotlight now, Travis and Taylor are obviously not the first athlete & mega star to get together. Each couple is unique, but we can look back and compare how other athletes handled a new relationship with a mega-star, and how their stats and data reacted.

1987 – Wayne Gretzky and Janet Jones

The Great One was in the middle of rewriting NHL record books when he bumped into Janet Jones at a Lakers game sometime in 1987. Gretzky averaged more than 200 points in the three years before Jones. Our table below compares Gretzky before and after meeting Janet. Wayne Gretzky Before and After Janet Jones - image

Wayne Gretzky Before and After Janet Jones - image

We see that Gretzky still performed at an extremely high level with his new partner cheering him on. However, just like the Kelce data earlier, we see a significant impact (15.8%) in performance once he coupled up.

Before Jones, Gretzky was doing crazy things like averaging over 60 goals per season and more than 200 points. Those kinds of stats would be hard to sustain long term.
After Jones, we see that the Great One is still doing crazy things, like averaging 2.13 points per game. However, that is down almost 16% from his 3 years before meeting her. He set a high bar Pre-Janet.

One thing worth noting: Gretzky changed teams during his relationship with Janet, leaving behind Messier, Coffey, Kurri, Anderson, and more to play in LA. That might also be a data point to consider.

2012 – Justin Verlander & Kate Upton

Just before the 2012 MLB Season started, Justin Verlander and Kate Upton were starting to become a thing. Prior to Upton, Verlander was a dominant pitcher. In his 3 seasons before Upton, Verlander had 60+ wins and 738 strikeouts. Justin Verlander Career Stats Comparison 1 - image

Justin Verlander Career Stats Comparison 1 - image

Like the Gretzky and Kelce data analyzed earlier, we see Verlander was all-world before meeting Kate. His data after meeting the former super-model is still very good, but it falls short in an H2H comparison.

After Upton, Verlander averaged 5 fewer wins per season.
Verlander’s ERA jumped from 3.06 to 3.51.
Verlander struck out 123 fewer hitters in his three years after meeting Upton.

Post-Marriage Stats Bump:

One thing that jumped out while researching the Verlander-Upton relationship is that Justin definitely benefited from a post-wedding bump in stats.

In 2018 and 2019 (two seasons only), Verlander won 37 games, posted a 2.55 ERA, and recorded almost 600 strikeouts.
Those numbers are as good as any other stretch in his HOF career. Unfortunately, he sat out 2020 and 2021 with an injury.

Kelce and Swift Data Conclusions

It’s easy to point out that Kelce took a statistical hit when he partnered with Taylor Swift, and that Swift could have hurt his on-field performance.

However, when we compare their relationship to other historical power-couple data, we see that a statistical decline from the Chiefs TE wasn’t unexpected.
Being present for someone new takes time and effort, and that has to come from somewhere. Sometimes, when one aspect of our life grows, another part must sacrifice. Personal for work. Work for personal. It can be a cycle.
Now that Kelce and Swift are married, we might even see the positive Post-Wedding Stats Bump Effect play out for Kelce. 1,000 yards receiving is not out of the question this year for the Chiefs tight end.

About the Author: Malcolm Darnley

Malcolm loves to watch all kinds of different sports. He also writes about them.