NFL MVP Blind Taste Test: Can You Spot the Better QB?

Published:Oct 29, 2026Oct 29, 20264 min read

Updated:Oct 29, 2026Oct 29, 2026

Fact Checker

Sports MVP awards are never decided before a season starts, but media and fans can sometimes create an MVP narrative before the games are played out.

NBA MVP Narrative Accusations

In 1993, Charles Barkley won his only NBA MVP Award. Many fans at the time believed that Barkley benefitted from the “He is due” theory, and that maybe some guy named Michael Jordan was actually the better player that year.
In 2011, Derrick Rose won the MVP Award. LeBron James had won the award the previous two years. Some believe that voter fatigue for LBJ was an issue, and the media might have held a grudge against King James for joining forces with Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh in Miami that year.
In 2019, James Harden openly criticized the MVP-voting media for building an early-season narrative and sticking to it. Harden averaged 36.1 points per game that year and went on a 32-game streak with at least 30+ points. However, Giannis Antetokounmpo won the NBA MVP Award that season.

NFL MVP Statistics and Betting Odds

Matthew Stafford won the NFL MVP Award last year. Drake Maye finished second. Both players were 50/1 longshots before the season started. As the season played out, both players spent time as the MVP betting favorite. NFL MVP 2025 The Closest Vote Ever - image

NFL MVP 2025 The Closest Vote Ever - image

In our table above, we can see that:

Stafford won: passing yards, passing TDs, and total touchdowns.
Maye won: team wins, completion %, passer rating, and rushing stats
Overall, their stats were extremely close, and picking the better player is very subjective

If Maye had been the veteran QB and Stafford the second-year player, would the voting results have been different? Obviously we will never know that answer, and sometimes for MVP voters, there is no wrong choice.

How Does That Impact NFL MVP Voting This Year

Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Joe Burrow were the MVP betting favorites at the start of the year. One of those players is the current MVP betting favorite, but a deep dive into some of the key stats suggests A LOT of value in a player NOT YET getting much MVP Hype.

The table above offers a quick statistical comparison between two very good NFL Quarterbacks.

Player A is currently the betting favorite to win the NFL MVP Award. His odds are +170.
Player B isn’t getting much MVP talk right now, and his odds to win the award are +3000.

Player A vs. Player B: Statistical Breakdown

In the stats above, Player B clearly has better passing stats, which is pretty important for a QB.
The passing TDs-to-INT ratio also jumps out. 14 passing TDs and ZERO interceptions is impressive.
Player A is clearly the better runner, and 8 rushing touchdowns are compelling in an overall MVP conversation.
Ultimately, winning matters, and the stats above don’t address team wins and losses.

MVP Candidates – Reveal Yourselves!

Many of you have already figured out that we are comparing Bills QB Josh Allen (Player A) with Lions QB Jared Goff (Player B).

Statistically, both players have a compelling MVP case at this point of the season.
The MVP Odds being offered by sportsbooks don’t say the same thing.
A $10 wager on Josh Allen (+170) pays out a $17 profit.
That same $10 wager on Jared Goff (+3000) pays $300 in profit.

Allen and Goff’s stats might be similar, but the profit each MVP bet returns is not.

Always Shop Around

Even after you complete your MVP betting analysis, your homework isn’t done. Knowing who to bet is, of course, the most important decision, but knowing where to bet will also boost your profit potential. Josh Allen vs. Jared Goff Odds Board - image