Sharp Betting Strategy To Help Boost Your ROI

Our boy Data_Josh is great at many things. By now, we all know his excel skills are off the chart.

But most of you don’t know how D_J is also great at providing newsletter guidance.

Each week, he reminds me to set a hook and set it early.

Today, I found a hook that even Data_Josh will appreciate, and he isn’t always easy to work for.

Captain Hook Strikes Again

“I am so good at this sports betting thing that I can help you increase your overall ROI by 16% without actually helping you win any more bets.”

And I have the data to prove it.

Let’s go!

It’s Not The Size Of The Data

BestOdds.com tracked NRFI odds from three sportsbooks for every single MLB regular season game this past year.

Three sets of odds for 32 teams, each of them playing 162 games, creates a very big spreadsheet.

But, as Data_Josh is quick to remind me, it’s not the size of the spreadsheet that matters but how you use the data it provides.

Meet Rusty

For the purpose of this article, I am going to introduce you to a friend of the Newsletter, a longtime bettor named Rusty.

Rusty:

• Is a $100 bettor who likes to bet NRFI’s
• This year, Rusty made 50 NRFI bets, finishing with a record of 25-25. (50%)
• Rusty’s overall profit for his 50 NRFI bets was -$500 (-10% ROI)

If we were to graph out Rusty’s 50 NRFI bets to show his profitability or lack thereof, it would look something like this.

Rusty, Meet Sharp

Another friend of the Newsletter worth introducing is Sharp.

Sharp is also a fan of MLB NRFI betting and had a slightly more positive experience than Rusty did this past year.

What makes Sharp such an interesting story is that:

• Sharp is also a $100 bettor who bet the exact same 50 NRFI’s his friend Rusty did.
• Sharp finished with the exact same 25-25 record that Rusty did. (obviously)
• Sharp made $800 more profit than Rusty and tells his buddy daily how much of a better sports gambler he is.

How Is That Possible?

To recap, our friend Rusty made 50 NRFI bets, went 25-25, and lost $500 in profit.

Our friend Sharp made the exact same 50 NRFI bets as Rusty, obviously going 25-25 as well.

However, instead of losing $500, Sharp made $300 in profit.

And here is why:

As our table above clearly details for us, the only difference between Rusty and Sharpis the odds they played and, of course, their overall profit.

Above, we have identified just 10 of the 50 games we used in our Rusty vs. Sharp analysis.

Throughout those ten games, we can see the absolute benefits of shopping around for your Best Odds.

Another way to look at it is with our graphic below.

• By shopping around for his Best Odds, Sharp finished with a 16% higher ROI and made $800 more than Rusty.
• Sharp was profitable over his 50 bets, while Rusty was not.

Maybe the most interesting stat listed above is the Average Odds.

• Rusty was betting his NRFI’s at an average of -124 odds, while Sharp could find the same bets at a much more enticing +113 average odds.

The Moral Of The Story

For many of us chasing profitability, we spend a lot of time in our own labs, analyzing stats and diving into the data.

However, a sports bettor’s number one edge is our ability to shop around.

This isn’t to say stop spending time in the science lab because we should always be studying and looking for an edge.

But what we are saying is don’t be a Rusty; instead, be a Sharp.