Saban Bounces Back

By Malcolm Darnley | September 14, 2022 11:33 AM

According to my friend Data_Josh, the odds of flipping a coin and having it land heads ten consecutive times is 1 in 1024.

According to sportsbooks last week, if you had placed a 10-game parlay, betting against the top 10 ranked teams ATS, the odds of that parlay would have been: +64,208

Unfortunately, for anyone with that specific 10-game parlay ticket in hand, the top nine ranked teams failed to cover the spread, but #10 USC snapped the streak and covered against Stanford.

Meaning, that the top 10 ranked teams in the country went 1-9 ATS last week.

If you struggled with some of your college bets last Saturday, the sportsbooks are suggesting you are not alone.

Bouncing Back From ATS Losses

  • In their last ten regular season games in 2021, the Georgia Bulldogs were 7-3 ATS. All three games Georgia failed to cover ATS, they rebounded to cover the spread the following week.
  • The Ohio State Buckeyes also went 7-3 ATS in their last ten regular season games. Two of three times, the Buckeyes bounced back to cover the spread their next time out.

Georgia and Ohio State are two of the best three teams in the country. Last year combined, they were 5-1 ATS after failing to cover the week before.

However, when it comes to bouncing back, nobody rebounds like the King of College Coaches, Nick Saban.

Obligatory Saban Is Good Section

You have probably heard that Nick Saban is a good college football coach.

But he is not perfect.

As most bettors already know, sometimes Alabama fails to cover the spread.

However, on those occasions where the Crimson Tide doesn’t cover the number, a bettor would have been wise to wager on Alabama to take care of business next time out.

Our table above documents the profit a $100 bettor would have earned if they had always bet on Alabama to cover the point spread after an ATS loss.

In 2007, Saban was in his first year as the Alabama head coach, and the Crimson Tide was still a work in progress.

In 11 of the 14 years following his first season, Coach Saban has shown that Alabama rarely fails to cover the spread two games in a row.

A 39-18-1 record is 68% ATS.

Let us all say a prayer for the Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks this week, who currently find themselves listed as +49 point underdogs against Alabama.

Reason #595 To Shop Around

With Georgia, Alabama, and Ohio State failing to cover last week, a bettor may want to parlay those three teams to bounce back this week.

Our table above gives us lots of reasons why the single greatest advantage a sports bettor has is our ability to shop around for the Best Odds.

In the case of our three-game parlay above, BetMGM offers the best overall lines, and they are giving us the best payout in this scenario as well.

If you compare this specific parlay head to head with DraftKings, BetMGM has great value.

A bettor gains a half-point edge with the Alabama game, a full-point edge with Ohio State, and they give up half a point in the Georgia game.

Plus, a $100 bettor would get paid out an additional $50 in profit by taking the +595 odds being offered at BetMGM.

I don’t need Data_Josh to tell me that an additional $50 profit on a $100 original bet is good.