Polymarket Traders Reveal Favorites for Every World Cup Group

With the 2026 FIFA World Cup set to kick off on June 11 across the U.S., Mexico, and Canada, prediction market traders have already placed millions of dollars behind their picks to win each group.

Polymarket’s World Cup group winner markets provide a real-time look at how traders view the tournament before the first match is played. Several traditional powers are heavily favored, while a handful of groups appear much more competitive.

The expanded tournament will feature 48 teams across 12 groups, with group winners and runners-up advancing to the knockout stage alongside the eight best third-place finishers.

Group A Winner Market

Group A: Mexico, South Africa, South Korea, Czech Republic

• Mexico – 53%
• South Korea – 23%
• Others – Remaining market share

Mexico enters as the clear favorite, aided by home-field advantage and strong regional familiarity. South Korea remains the primary challenger according to traders.

Group B Winner Market

Group B: Canada, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Qatar, Switzerland

• Switzerland – 55%
• Canada – 31%
• Others – Remaining market share

Traders view Switzerland as the most likely group winner, though co-host Canada has attracted significant support.

Group C Winner Market

Group C: Brazil, Morocco, Haiti, Scotland

• Brazil – 75%
• Morocco – 19%
• Others – Remaining market share

Brazil owns one of the strongest positions among all group favorites and is expected to advance comfortably.

Group D Winner Market

Group D: United States, Paraguay, Australia, Türkiye

• United States – 39%
• Türkiye – 36%
• Others – Remaining market share

Group D is one of the closest markets on Polymarket. The United States holds only a slight edge over Türkiye heading into the tournament.

Group E Winner Market

Group E: Germany, Curaçao, Ivory Coast, Ecuador

• Germany – 68%
• Ecuador – 22%
• Others – Remaining market share

Germany is viewed as a strong favorite after landing in a relatively favorable group.

Group F Winner Market

Group F: Netherlands, Japan, Sweden, Tunisia

• Netherlands – 53%
• Japan – 26%
• Others – Remaining market share

The Dutch are favored, but Japan has emerged as a popular dark horse among traders.

Group G Winner Market

Group G: Belgium, Egypt, Iran, New Zealand

• Belgium – 67%
• Egypt – 18%
• Others – Remaining market share

Belgium remains the market favorite, while Egypt and Mohamed Salah are seen as the biggest threat.

Group H Winner Market

Group H: Spain, Cape Verde, Saudi Arabia, Uruguay

• Spain – 79%
• Uruguay – 19%
• Others – Remaining market share

Spain owns the highest probability among the group winner markets currently listed on Polymarket.

Group I Winner Market

Group I: France, Senegal, Iraq, Norway

• France – 67%
• Norway – 24%
• Others – Remaining market share

France is expected to top the group, although Norway’s talented attack has attracted notable support.

Group J Winner Market

Group J: Argentina, Algeria, Austria, Jordan

• Argentina – 71%
• Austria – 19%
• Others – Remaining market share

The defending world champions are heavily favored to win Group J.

Group K Winner Market

Group K: Portugal, DR Congo, Uzbekistan, Colombia

• Portugal – 63%
• Colombia – 31%
• Others – Remaining market share

Portugal enters as the favorite, though Colombia has attracted considerable backing from traders.

Group L Winner Market

Group L: England, Croatia, Ghana, Panama

• England – 70%
• Croatia – 23%
• Others – Remaining market share

England enters Group L as one of the strongest favorites among all group winner markets on Polymarket

Prediction Market Trends for the World Cup

The World Cup has become one of the largest prediction market events ever. Polymarket’s World Cup Winner market has already generated roughly $2 billion in trading volume, with Spain and France currently tied as overall tournament favorites at approximately 16% each. Argentina, Brazil, England, and Portugal also rank among the leading contenders.

Meanwhile, Kalshi has launched dozens of World Cup event contracts covering group winners, Golden Boot, Golden Ball, host nation performance, continental winners, and outright champion markets.

Both platforms have seen increased activity as the tournament approaches, highlighting the growing role prediction markets are playing alongside traditional sports betting ahead of the largest World Cup in history.