NFL Releases Probabilities on Teams’ Playoff Chances
With four weeks remaining in the season, NFL fans are watching to see which teams will make it into the postseason. With that in mind, the league recently released the odds of each team to make the playoffs and those interested in NFL betting may want to take note.
While some teams have virtually locked up playoff berths, a few are still scrambling to find a spot in the postseason. Using the Next Gen Stats playoff probability model, the league offered a look at what fans can expect in the coming weeks.
The results? Most of the 14 playoff sports appear to already be secure in both conferences. Here’s a quick look at the numbers.
AFC Probabilities
The Broncos and Patriots, both at 11-2, are the cream of the crop in the AFC and have a more than 99% chance to get in the postseason. The Jaguars (9-4) also stand at 97% with the 9-4 Bills at 96%.
A few teams are also in pretty good shape. The Texans (8-5) sit at 87% with the Steelers (7-6) at 66% and Chargers (9-4) at 76%. Those numbers could greatly increase with wins this week.
| AFC | Playoff % | If Win | If Lose | No. 1 seed % |
| 1. Broncos (11-2) | >99% | 100% | >99% | 42% |
| 2. Patriots (11-2) | >99% | 100% | >99% | 39% |
| 3. Jaguars (9-4) | 97% | 99% | 91% | 10% |
| 4. Steelers (7-6) | 66% | 74% | 56% | 0% |
| 5. Chargers (9-4) | 76% | 93% | 66% | 3% |
| 6. Bills (9-4) | 96% | 99% | 92% | 6% |
| 7. Texans (8-5) | 87% | 92% | 75% | 1% |
So which teams on the bubble still have a shot to get in? At 8-5, the Colts are still alive and have a 32% chance to get in. The Ravens also stand at 33% with a 6-7record.
After an epic run over the last few years that included three titles and appearing in five out of the last six Super Bowls, the Chiefs have just a 10% chance to make a postseason appearance.
NFC Probabilities
In the NFC, the situation is even firmer for the conference’s best. Five teams have more than a 90% chance to still be playing into the new year. Those include: the Rams (10-3), 98%; Seahawks (10-3), 98%; Packers (9-3-1), 94%; Eagles(8-5), 92%; and 49ers (9-4), 90%.
The Buccaneers (7-6) stood at 71% and the Bears (9-4) at 65%. Wins would bump those percentages up to 80% and 72% respectively.
| NFC | Playoff % | If Win | If Lose | No. 1 seed % |
| 1. Rams (10-3) | 98% | 100% | 95% | 45% |
| 2. Packers (9-3-1) | 94% | 99% | 89% | 12% |
| 3. Eagles (8-5) | 92% | 95% | 80% | 1% |
| 4. Buccaneers (7-6) | 71% | 80% | 54% | 0% |
| 5. Seahawks (10-3) | 98% | 99% | 93% | 32% |
| 6. 49ers (9-4) | 90% | 93% | 76% | 7% |
| 7. Bears (9-4) | 65% | 72% | 47% | 3% |
A couple teams at least still have some hope to climb back into one of the top seven spots. The Lions are at 50% and have huge games coming up against the Rams, Steelers, Vikings, and Bears.
The Panthers (7-6) have a 2% shot and have two upcoming games against the Bucs and a matchup with the Seahawks. Wins to close out the season could certainly help Carolina’s cause.
Betting Outlook
So what can bettors gain from this knowledge? With teams fighting to keep or continue battling for a playoff spot, there may be some value in taking those in contention for the postseason.
That being said, a few of the above stand out and are among the top teams in the league against the spread. Seattle is 10-3 against the spread, followed by the Rams (9-4), Patriots (8-4-1), Bears (8-5), and 49ers (8-5).
Surprisingly, the Panthers are tied with the Bears and 49ers against the spread at 8-5. Prognosticators may want to take a look at these teams as the last four games in the season play out.
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