Kawhi Leonard's Playoff Outlook: What History Tells Us About His Availability

The thought of Kawhi Leonard teaming up with Scottie Barnes had NBA Futures bettors excited for the Toronto Raptors. When news of Kawhi to Toronto broke in early July, Raptors championship odds dropped significantly. 

• Currently, the Raptors are +1600 (at DraftKings) to win the NBA Championship. Even with Kawhi already dealing with an unknown knee injury.
• Only the 76ers, Knicks, and Celtics have lower odds among teams in the East
• Quality teams like Cleveland (+2500 at bet365) and Detroit (+2500) have significantly higher odds compared to the Raptors.

Already, Kawhi is out with a knee injury, despite not actually getting injured. However, sportsbooks are holding firm on Toronto’s odds as a top Eastern Conference contender.

Kawhi Regular Season Games Played – Last 4 Years

When discussing Kawhi’s games played, it’s important to distinguish between load management and an actual injury. Kawhi has definitely battled serious injury during his career. But he played in 65 regular-season games last year, with no serious injury listed. The table above gives us a clear picture of what Kawhi has achieved in games played over the last four years.

• Twice, Leonard missed at least 30 regular-season games.
• Twice, Leonard played at least 65 regular-season games.
• Overall, Leonard played in 67.7% of the Clippers’ games over the last four years.

Although missing 17 games might seem like a lot for an average player, I believe the Raptors would be excited to get 65 games from Kawhi this year. With Leonard already hurt, that might not even be realistic.

Playoff Kawhi – Games Played Last 4 Years

Regular season games are nice, but championships are obviously won in the playoffs. In 2018-19, Kawhi played in all 24 Raptors playoff games. What are the odds Kawhi can be healthy and ready to go in May – seven years later? During his last four seasons, Kawhi has made the playoffs three times. 

• Twice, Kawhi missed more games than he played in the playoffs.
• Once, Kawhi was able to play in every Clippers playoff game (7 games)
• Last year, Kawhi played 40 minutes in the LAC play-in game, but the Clippers didn’t advance.

Overall, Leonard has played in 61% of the playoff games in the last four years. 

Why Raptors Fans Are So Positive This Year

Our memories and minds sometimes influence our decisions. During Kawhi’s one season in Toronto, he won the city and the country an NBA Championship. Remembering Kawhi as a Raptor seven years ago could impact decisions today.

• Raptors went 58-24 during the 2018-19 regular season.
• The Raptors beat ORL (in 5), PHI (in 7), MIL (in 6), and GS (in 6), finishing the playoffs 16-8. (and with a Championship)
• Kawhi played 60 regular-season games and 24 (of 24) playoff games that year. 

During his six seasons as a Clipper: 

• Kawhi averaged 55 regular-season games played. 
• Twice, he was able to play more than 60 games
• Last year, Leonard played 65 games (5th highest total in his 14-year career) and played 40 minutes in the play-in game.

For futures betting on the Raptors, the prudent play is probably to watch Kawhi as the season plays out. If you can tell he is healthy and ready for the playoffs before the odds react, you might find value with the Raptors.