Patriots vs. Broncos Same Game Parlay | Week 16

After starting the season 1-5, the Broncos went on to win five consecutive games and climb back to 6-5.

Since then, Denver has gone 1-2 in their last three games, struggling to stay above .500 and hanging on the outskirts of the AFC Playoff picture.

The late great Dennis Green famously said, “They are who we thought they were!”

That’s what I think whenever I see the Broncos. They’re probably not as formidable as their improbable mid-season run. They are what I think they are: average.

Dennis Green also said, “You gotta start from scratch and keep on scratching”.

Which is exactly what I think when I see the Patriots. They’re definitely scratching and clawing to find a path forward.

For this Christmas Eve showdown on Sunday Night, I’ll place a Same Game Parlay on FanDuel.

Bailey Zappe – OVER 185.5 Passing Yards and OVER 0.5 TD Passes

Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff just ripped the Broncos’ defense in half in Week 15, throwing for five touchdown passes.

For this parlay, Bailey Zappe only needs one.

It’s a small ask, but a tall task for the second-year quarterback.

Zappe has only four touchdown passes this season, but he did throw three against the Pittsburgh Steelers just a few weeks ago.

WOW! 😱 Zappe to Henry AGAIN for another @Patriots TD#NEvsPIT on Prime Video
Also available on #NFLPlus https://t.co/0GJemAElFj pic.twitter.com/8kv5FZRGjb

— NFL (@NFL) December 8, 2023

Denver has allowed 25 touchdown passes in 14 games, so Zappe launching one into the end zone doesn’t seem like a farfetched scenario.

Can Zappe flirt with 200 passing yards though?

The Broncos have the NFL’s 23rd-ranked passing defense, and in the last three games they have allowed an average of 275.7 passing yards per game.

With Zappe’s line being 90 yards lower than what Denver has been allowing to opposing passing attacks, I like the over on his yards prop.

Only Jordan Love (180 yards: Week 7), Josh Allen (177 Yards: Week 10), and Dorian Thompson-Robinson (134 Yards: Week 12) have failed to reach 186 passing yards against Denver’s defense this season.

I think Zappe can avoid that group.

Pick: Zappe – OVER 185.5 Passing Yards (-114) FanDuel

Pick: Zappe – OVER 0.5 TD Passes (-172) FanDuel

Ezekiel Elliott – ALT Rushing Yards: 70+ and Anytime Touchdown

This defensive comparison, courtesy of BestOdds EDGE, shows the potentially rewarding matchup for the veteran running back.

Denver’s rushing defense is awful.

Even though the Broncos’ defense was torched by Jared Goff last week, they still allowed Jahmyr Gibbs to run for 100 yards and a touchdown on 11 carries (9.1 ypc), and David Montgomery to pick up 85 yards on 17 carries (5.0 ypc).

Elliott has averaged about 17 carries per game over the last three weeks, taking on a larger role in the Patriots’ offense, and I would expect Elliott to see nearly 20 carries here.

Even though Elliott is running for a measly 3.6 yards per carry this season, his potential workload on the ground this week should mask the lower average.

Elliott has been a solid receiver out of the backfield, too.

Here’s Elliott’s receiving performances over the last three games.

Elliott’s Opponent	Elliott’s Receiving
Week 13: Los Angeles (A)	4 Rec, 40 Yds (5 Targets)
Week 14: Pittsburgh	7 Rec, 72 Yds, TD (8 Targets)
Week 15: Kansas City	5 Rec, 21 Yds (6 Targets)

Elliott’s ability to score on the ground or through the air makes for an appealing anytime touchdown wager.

Pick: Elliott – ALT Rushing Yards: 70+ (+134) FanDuel

Pick: Elliott – Anytime Touchdown (+130) FanDuel

Russell Wilson – UNDER 203.5 Passing Yards and UNDER 1.5 TD Passes

Russell Wilson is averaging only 202.3 passing yards per game, so the Broncos are not exactly an air raid offense.

In fact, in eight of Wilson’s 14 games this season, he has failed to reach 200 passing yards.

BestOdds EDGE has Wilson projected slightly under his passing yards prop.

Also, BestOdds EDGE shows that Wilson going under his passing yards prop is a very common occurrence.

In the last five games for New England, quarterbacks are averaging only 218.4 passing yards per game, but that number jumped after Patrick Mahomes’ 305 passing yards last week.

Wilson just hasn’t been playing his best football lately, completing under 60% of his passes and throwing for four interceptions in the last three games.

I think Sean Payton will take a more conservative approach to limit mistakes against Bill Belichick, and that will lead to a quiet offensive showing for Denver.

Pick: Wilson – UNDER 203.5 Passing Yards (-114) FanDuel

Pick: Wilson – UNDER 1.5 TD Passes (-180) FanDuel

The Patriots’ offense has an opportunity to turn the corner, but their defense needs to contain the Broncos’ already subpar passing offense for this Same Game Parlay.

FanDuel SGP Legs	Odds
Bailey Zappe – OVER 185.5 Passing Yards	-114
Bailey Zappe – OVER 0.5 TD Passes	-172
Ezekiel Elliott – ALT Rushing Yards: 70+	+134
Ezekiel Elliott – Anytime Touchdown	+130
Russell Wilson – UNDER 203.5 Passing Yards	-114
Russell Wilson – UNDER 1.5 TD Passes	-180
Patriots vs. Broncos SGP Odds	+2701

A $10 wager on this Sunday Night Football Same Game Parlay would win $270.14!

Betting NFL Same Game Parlays

Same game parlay is just like a regular NFL parlay bet, except all bet selections come from different wagers within one football game.

The benefit of an NFL same game parlay is achieved by combining multiple bets so you can go for bigger wins as the odds increase.

The more bet selections you add, the more difficult it is to win, but the odds also greatly increase so is the potential winning amount.

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