NCAAF Player Prop Bets Week 7

College Football Playoff chances will be altered, the Pac-12 Conference title odds will be shaken up, and the picture on who wins the Heisman Trophy will become clearer.

It’s Nix vs. Penix.

In a game with two blazing offenses, some players in this contest will burn right past their props.

So, for Week 7 props in NCAA Football, I’ll start with the game in Seattle that has the total set at 66 points.

Bo Nix, QB – Oregon Ducks

Bo Nix is averaging 291.8 passing yards per game this season, and in a game with Michael Penix Jr. on the other side, Nix will have to fling it often to keep up.

In Oregon’s closest contests this season, a 38-30 win over the Texas Tech Red Raiders on September 9th, Nix attempted 44 passes and tallied 359 yards and two touchdowns.

Nix will have to put forth a similar effort this week.

Washington has yet to play a quarterback of Nix’s caliber, so their not-very-good 75th-ranked passing defense (243.4 yards per game) could actually be buoyed by weaker quarterback competition.

Two weeks ago, the Huskies allowed two quarterbacks from the Cal Golden Bears, Ben Finley and Sam Jackson V, to throw for a combined 363 passing yards.

There are holes in this Washington defense, and Bo Nix will find them.

Bo Nix with the td pass on 3rd and 2 to give Oregon a three touchdown lead over Colorado pic.twitter.com/Fjrx0YycoC

— CFBBlueprint (@CFBBluePrint) September 23, 2023

I believe Nix will have 300+ passing yards in this game, which is a solid value at +122 on FanDuel, but I’ll comfortably back Nix to go over his passing prop of just 282.5 yards.

Pick: Nix – OVER 282.5 Passing Yards

Best Odds: (-114) FanDuel

Audric Estime – RB, Notre Dame

Notre Dame running back Estime has a promising opportunity to pick up some yards on the ground when the USC Trojans’ defense comes to South Bend in Week7.

USC’s defense has not been great, especially when it comes to halting opposing running backs.

Of all 133 FBS teams, the Trojans currently have the NCAA’s 80th-ranked rushing defense, surrendering an average of 157 yards per game on the ground.

Estime had a forgettable outing last week against the Louisville Cardinals, running just 10 times for 20 yards, but despite that ugly performance, Estime is still averaging 6.6 yards per carry on the season.

Crazy Insane Stat I just came across:

Audric Estime has 10 runs of 20+ yards or more, that's more 20+ yard runs than Oklahoma, Florida, Ohio State, and Penn State have combined.

Just a thought, Audric Estime is really freaking good and a Top 3 RB in CFB.☘️ pic.twitter.com/V6vaI5tFVI

— Ryan Fravel (@Fravel_Ryan) October 5, 2023

There is rain in the forecast for South Bend, Indiana this Saturday, and if the Fighting Irish’s quarterback Sam Hartman doesn’t feel comfortable chucking the ball in the rain, Estime could have a huge workload.

If Estime can take at least 20 handoffs, which I believe he will, he could crush his rushing yards prop that’s currently set at 84.5 yards.

Pick: Estime – OVER 84.5 Rushing Yards

Best Odds: (-114) FanDuel

Luther Burden III – WR, Missouri Tigers

Burden’s name has been on the rise in College Football, and rightfully so.

Before signing with Missouri, Burden was the No. 1 receiver recruit in the country coming out of East St. Louis High School in the Class of 2022, and was ranked No. 5 in the ESPN 300.

The promise is starting to show.

The top receiving target has put on a clinic, and Burden III has now collected at least 114 receiving yards in his last five games; he could have had 100+ in every game this season, but only had 96 in the Tigers’ opening contests against FCS-level South Dakota.

Luther Burden III is WR1 in the 2025 Draft and that should be common knowledge pic.twitter.com/qnFxd7FhgJ

— RanDynasty (@ran_dynasty) October 7, 2023

This week, Mizzou heads to Lexington to take on the Kentucky Wildcats.

Kentucky just got incinerated by Carson Beck and the Georgia Bulldogs last week, allowing 389 passing yards.

The Wildcats’ passing defense now ranks 103rd in the NCAA, being torched for an average of 264.6 passing yards per game.

I’m assuming Tigers’ QB Brady Cook continues his strong season and flirts with another 300+ yard performance, and Burden will be the main beneficiary.

Burden will see plenty of targets once again, and posting 100+ receiving yards has quickly become the norm for this rising star wide receiver.

Pick: Burden – OVER 107.5 Receiving Yards

Best Odds: (-114) FanDuel

Michael Penix Jr. – QB, Washington Huskies

I’ll bookend these props with the other side of the Oregon-Washington QB showdown.

Oregon currently has the 12th-best rushing defense in the NCAA, and Michael Penix Jr. isn’t worried about that at all, because no quarterback chucks the ball quite like him.

Michael Penix Jr.: 20-25 for 375 yards and four touchdowns against Michigan State…

…it's halftime.

— Jason Haskins (@jasonrh_78) September 16, 2023

Running is not the Huskies’ strong suit.

Penix’s last outing against the Arizona Wildcats was an odd one, as he completed 30 passes, threw for 363 yards, but still had zero touchdown passes.

That’s an anomaly.

In five games this season, Penix has racked up four or more touchdown passes in three of them.

Flinging the ball is how Washington puts points on the board, usually. They did run for four touchdowns in the game against Arizona, but like I said, that’s an anomaly.

Oregon has only allowed more than 10 points in one game this season, the previously mentioned 38-30 win over Texas Tech.

In that game, Red Raiders’ QB Tyler Shough (an Oregon transfer), threw for three touchdowns.

Penix can eclipse that number this week, and in a game with such high stakes, he will have to.

Pick: Penix – OVER 3.5 TD Passes
Best Odds: (+136) FanDuel