NCAAF Player Prop Bets Week 12

After losing back-to-back games to the Kansas Jayhawks and the Oklahoma State Cowboys, the Sooners were essentially pushed out of the College Football Playoff.

Simultaneously, Gabriel was nudged out of the Heisman Trophy conversation as well.

In Week 11, Gabriel produced a Heisman-level performance in Oklahoma’s 59-20 beatdown of the West Virginia Mountaineers, throwing for 423 yards and five touchdown passes and running for another 50 yards and three touchdowns.

Eight total touchdowns for Gabriel!

Dillon Gabriel becomes the first Oklahoma QB with 8 total TDs in a game 😤 pic.twitter.com/fpZFr5CZ3b

— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) November 12, 2023

Gabriel to score three touchdowns was +1400 on bet365!

Gabriel may not win the Heisman this year, but he was the “Week 11 Heisman” in my book. He gave bettors plenty of no-sweat prop bets last week.

Bettors still holding out hope for Gabriel to win the Heisman can find his odds for +15000 at BetMGM.

Now, let’s sift through some College Football player props for Week 12 and find some profitable wagering options.

As always, with the best odds!

J.J. McCarthy – QB, Michigan Wolverines

Last week was a weird one for McCarthy.

McCarthy and the Wolverines picked up a huge Big Ten win over the Penn State Nittany Lions, but in the win, McCarthy was only 7-for-8 passing with 60 yards.

That’ll put a dent in McCarthy’s Heisman campaign.

This week, Michigan will visit the Maryland Terrapins, and the Terps’ defense has been subpar at slowing down opposing quarterbacks.

Maryland only allowed 86 passing yards last week to the Nebraska Cornhuskers, but there may not be a worse quarterbacking team in the Power Five conferences than the ‘Huskers.

In the Terrapins’ six other games of Big Ten Conference play, they have allowed an average of 253 passing yards per game.

That six-game span includes a 320-yard performance from Ohio State’s Kyle McCord and even a 265-yard showing from Brendan Sullivan of Northwestern.

McCarthy is only averaging 219.4 passing yards per game this season, but he was basically absent last week, and this week, I think he will make his “return”.

This ball is put on the money by JJ McCarthy.

Touchdown #Michigan: pic.twitter.com/9aiYs3uAi0

— Lincoln Heimbach (@LincHeimbachTSP) September 23, 2023

This game currently has a 19.5-point spread, favoring Michigan, and if it turns into a blowout quickly, McCarthy could be pulled early.

I think McCarthy can hit the over on this line before any back-patting benching occurs in the fourth quarter.

Pick: McCarthy – OVER 227.5 Passing Yards

Best Odds: (-115) DraftKings

Carson Steele – RB, UCLA Bruins

Steele has seen a recent dip in workload, with fellow Bruins’ running back T.J. Harden seeing an increase in carries.

In the last three games, Steele is averaging only 10 carries a game, and UCLA is only 1-2 in the time, scoring an average of 15 points per game.

In the three previous games, Steele was averaging 24 carries per game, and the Bruins were 2-1 in that time, scoring an average of 30.3 points per game.

This week, in UCLA’s rivalry matchup against the USC Trojans, I believe that Steele will get back to his heavy workload, and he should, considering that the Trojans’ defense has allowed 182.3 rushing yards per game (113th in NCAA).

Here’s a quick look at how the leading rusher has fared against USC’s defense in the last six games:

USC Opponent	Leading Rusher	RB Results
Arizona	Jonah Coleman	21 Car, 137 Yds
Notre Dame	Audric Estime	22 Car, 95 Yds, 2 TD
Utah	Ja’Quinden Jackson	26 Car, 117 Yds
California	Jaydn Ott	21 Car, 153 Yds, 3 TD
Washington	Dillon Johnson	26 Car, 256 Yds, 4 TD
Oregon	Bucky Irving	19 Car, 119 Yds, TD

Steele has gone over 72.5 rushing yards in seven of his ten games this season, and if UCLA wants to get back to their scoring ways, they need to feed Steele the ball.

I think a heavy dose of rushing will do the trick for the Bruins this week in this SoCal rivalry game, and Steele will benefit.

Pick: OVER 72.5 Rushing Yards

Best Odds: (-115) DraftKings

Luther Burden III – WR, Missouri Tigers

Burden’s receiving yards line had been hovering around 100 yards for weeks, and it made sense, considering that Burden had a low of 96 receiving yards in his first six games.

In the last four games, Burden has a high of 90 receiving yards, and he only had 26 receiving yards last week against Tennessee; a season-low.

“Flex Luther” has a receiving yards line under 80 this week against the Florida Gators, and that feels like a winning opportunity.

The Gators have allowed plenty of big receiving games in the last few weeks.

Here, take a look.

Florida Opponent	Wide Receiver	WR Results
Week 6: Vanderbilt	Will Sheppard	3 Rec, 107 Yds, TD
Week 7: South Carolina	Xavier Legette	5 Rec, 110 Yds
Week 9: Georgia	Ladd McConkey	6 Rec, 135 Yds, TD
Week 9: Georgia	Dominic Lovett	4 Rec, 83 Yds
Week 10: Arkansas	Andrew Armstrong	3 Rec, 103 Yds
Week 11: LSU	Brian Thomas Jr.	6 Rec, 150 Yds, 2 TD
Week 11: LSU	Malik Nabors	6 Rec, 132 Yds

Burden collecting 77 receiving yards suddenly doesn’t seem that difficult.

With a very solid quarterback in Brady Cook, there should be plenty of passing yards to go around for Missouri.

Pick: Burden III – OVER 76.5 Receiving Yards

Best Odds: (-114) FanDuel

Marvin Harrison Jr. – WR, Ohio State Buckeyes

Harrison has scored two or more touchdowns in three consecutive games, and in Ohio State’s contest this week against the Minnesota Golden Gophers, the Buckeyes are set as 27.5-point favorites.

If the books are calling for the Buckeyes to win by about four touchdowns, I can’t think of a better player to score those than Harrison. Even two touchdowns for Harrison is realistic here.

Harrison has 13 total touchdowns this year (one rushing) in 10 games.

Great throw. Great catch. Touchdown Marvin Harrison Jr. pic.twitter.com/Pfq5EO6SJE

— Eleven Warriors (@11W) November 12, 2023

Minnesota has allowed 12 touchdown receptions from opposing wide receivers in their ten games, with Isaiah Williams of Illinois and Bryce Kirtz of Northwestern being the only two to snag two touchdown catches in a game against the Gophers, so far.

Hudson Card, quarterback of the Purdue Boilermakers, threw for 251 yards and three touchdowns against Minnesota last week, so I’d expect Buckeyes’ QB Kyle McCord to have little trouble finding Harrison in this one.

Pick: Harrison – To Score 2+ TD
Best Odds: (+190) FanDuel