NFL Week 5 Betting Recap: Biggest Results, Upsets & Market Impact

Week 5 of the NFL Betting season produced plenty of drama, with underdogs cashing in, totals soaring, and sportsbooks feeling the pressure from public action.

Biggest Upsets of the Week

Patriots 24, Bills 20 – Few gave New England much of a chance going into Buffalo as +8 underdogs, but the Patriots delivered one of the shocks of the week. Buffalo entered the matchup on a hot streak, heavily favored by both oddsmakers and public bettors. The Pats’ upset didn’t just hand Bill Belichick’s squad a statement win — it also produced one of the largest moneyline payouts of Week 5, with bettors cashing in at better than 3-to-1 odds.

Titans 22, Cardinals 21 – Tennessee reminded everyone why divisional underdogs are always dangerous. The Titans, catching +7.5 points, staged a late rally that completely flipped the outcome and wrecked countless parlay tickets built around the Cardinals. The narrow 1-point victory highlighted the volatility of NFL betting, as Arizona backers went from confident to crushed in a matter of minutes.

Jets 31, Cowboys 27 – The Jets’ defense and opportunistic offense carried them past Dallas as a +6 underdog, a result that further cemented Week 5 as a dog-heavy slate. The Cowboys were one of the most heavily bet favorites of the week, and their stumble added to the string of results that swung the balance heavily in bettors’ favor.

Totals & Spread Action

Overs Dominate – The storyline of Week 5 was points, and plenty of them. Totals went over in 10 of 14 games, making it a banner weekend for over bettors and a nightmare for sportsbooks. Games like Broncos–Eagles and Lions–Bengals didn’t just creep over the line — they sailed past it, with scoring outbursts in the second half leaving oddsmakers with little recourse. The surge in overs continued a season-long trend, where offenses are outpacing defensive adjustments in high-leverage spots.

Favorites Falter – While some chalk held — the Chiefs covered with relative ease — several high-profile favorites faltered badly. The Bills, Cowboys, and Cardinals all went down as favorites, shaking up survivor pools and crippling parlay-heavy betting slips. For casual bettors who stuck with the dogs or mixed in overs, the weekend proved especially profitable.

Sportsbook Impact

For sportsbooks, Week 5 was the kind of weekend they hope doesn’t happen often. The combination of heavy underdog wins and overs hitting at a high clip led to widespread operator losses. Industry reports suggested it was one of the most bettor-friendly slates of the season to date. FOX Sports summed it up bluntly: “favorites and overs hitting hard” left the books reeling.

When underdogs win outright while totals keep climbing, sportsbooks often lose on both sides of their balance sheet — and Week 5 was a textbook case. Parlays, teasers, and moneyline underdog bets all cashed in volume, putting sportsbooks in the red.

Looking Ahead

Week 6 lines are already showing sharp activity on totals, suggesting the over trend may continue. Matchups like Chiefs–Chargers and Eagles–Giants are drawing early betting attention, with oddsmakers expected to adjust quickly.

Citations

• WTOP – Sports betting roundup: Upsets and close finishes highlight big sports weekend, Oct. 6, 2025.
  
• Fox Sports – Books bemoan bettors’ big NFL weekend, Oct. 6, 2025.
  
• Yahoo Sports – NFL Week 5 sharp action and betting splits, Oct. 5, 2025.