MLB Best Player Props Today – July 11th, 2025

With a full Friday slate, there are plenty of exploitable matchups to target for MLB player props today. The focus remains on starting pitchers because I’ve been much better at projecting those on the mound than those at the plate. Today’s bets feature two earned run props and one outs prop. 

We’ll start with Minnesota Twins’ starting pitcher Joe Ryan in a favorable spot against the Pittsburgh Pirates, then move on to Arizona Diamondbacks’ right-hander Ryne Nelson in a good matchup vs. the Los Angeles Angels, followed by Atlanta Braves’ righty Grant Holmes taking on the St. Louis Cardinals.

Keep reading to find my best MLB player props for July 11, 2025.

Note: Odds were correct at the time of writing.

Joe Ryan Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-135) at bet365

Ryan is having a fantastic season, registering a 2.76 ERA and 0.89 WHIP with 21 walks and 116 strikeouts in 104.1 innings.

The Twins’ righty has been dominant in his last three outings, allowing a combined three earned runs across 19 frames.

We’re getting Ryan at a reasonable number at 6.5 strikeouts, which he’s gone over in four of his last five outings.

This is a great matchup at home against the Pirates, who have put up an 82 wRC+ (28th) and a 22.6 K% (T-22nd) this season.

While we’re paying some juice on this over at bet365, it’s still a nice price compared to elsewhere in the market, as this is as short as -144 at FanDuel.

With that in mind, let’s ride with Ryan to get seven or more strikeouts in this spot.

Odds Comparison for Joe Ryan Over 6.5 Strikeouts

Sportsbook	Odds
bet365	-135
Hard Rock Bet	-135
BetMGM	-135
DraftKings	-140
FanDuel	-144

Ryne Nelson Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+125) at BetMGM

Nelson has been on quite a roll lately, allowing one earned run or fewer in seven of his last nine starts.

While this isn’t a prolific strikeout pitcher (21.8 K%), it’s a great matchup against the Angels, who have posted a 25.7 K% against righties, which ranks 29th in MLB.

We’ve seen Nelson rack up seven strikeouts in two of his last three starts, so it’s clear that he’s getting into a rhythm in generating whiffs.

It wouldn’t surprise me to see Nelson set a new season-high in this favorable matchup.

You have to love that we’re getting a +125 price at BetMGM, considering that this number is as short as +110 at bet365, so let’s take a shot on Nelson to get six or more punchouts against the Angels.

Odds Comparison for Ryne Nelson Over 5.5 Strikeouts

Sportsbook	Odds
BetMGM	+125
DraftKings	+120
bet365	+110

Grant Holmes Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+115) at bet365

Holmes has shown a high ceiling in strikeouts this season, putting up nine or more punchouts in five outings this season, including 15 against the Rockies on June 15th.

That’s why I’m willing to take a shot on Holmes to get six or more strikeouts in a tough matchup against the Cardinals, who have put up a 19.6 K% vs righties, which ranks 5th in MLB.

However, we’ve seen an encouraging trend that bodes well for this prop, as the Cardinals have struck out at a much higher rate lately

In the last 14 days, St. Louis has registered a 22.6 K%, which ranks 19th in MLB.

Add in the fact that we’re getting a good price at +115 at bet365, and you can see why this looks like an appealing wager.

Take Holmes to get six or more strikeouts in this spot.

Odds Comparison for Grant Holmes Over 5.5 Strikeouts

Sportsbook	Odds
bet365	+115
FanDuel	+112
BetMGM	+105
Caesars	+105