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Wimbledon Women’s Semifinal | Odds & Picks

Wimbledon Women’s Semifinal | Odds & Picks


Thomas Snodgrass

Updated: Jul 10, 2024

Wimbledon started out with 128 women looking for a major championship on the hallowed grounds of the All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club, and now we are down to the final four.

It’s been an interesting path to the semifinal, with No. 1 seed Iga Swiatek being ousted in the third round by Yulia Putintseva in three sets, and No. 2 seed Coco Gauff being downed by No. 19 seed Emma Navarro in straight sets in the Round of 16.

There have been injuries that have dictated winners, too. No. 12 seed Madison Keys eliminated herself in the third set of her Round of 16 match with No. 7 seed Jasmine Paolini, and No. 17 seed Anna Kalinskaya conceded a match to No. 4 seed Elena Rybakina in the Round of 16 as well.

Although Rybakina and Paolini have found their way into the Wimbledon semifinals by way of injury, that’s not to suggest that they haven’t taken care of business on the grass.

Rybakina is a former Wimbledon champ in 2022, and has won 10 of her 11 total sets played in the 2024 edition, winning four of her five matches in straight sets.

As the odds currently sit, Rybakina is the betting favorite. The best odds for Rybakina to win her second Wimbledon title can be found at -180 on FanDuel.

Paolini has also won four of her five matches in straight sets and nine of her 11 total sets, with Keys’ exit in an all square at 5 third set in the Round of 16 being her biggest scare.

Paolini sits second on the odds boards to take home her first Wimbledon title, with the best odds coming from BetMGM at +333.

Before diving into the semifinals matches, here’s a look at the Women’s Wimbledon outright winner futures market.

Women’s Wimbledon Championship Odds

Wimbledon SemifinalistsBest Odds
Elena Rybakina-180 FanDuel
Jasmine Paolini+333 BetMGM
Barbora Krejčíková+750 bet365
Donna Vekić+800 Caesars

No. 31 Barbora Krejčíková vs. No. 4 Elena Rybakina

Rybakina is a heavy favorite over Barbora Krejčíková, with odds to win this semifinal match in the -500 neighborhood on most sportsbooks.

Interestingly, Rybakina is 0-2 in her career against Krejčíková, so the underdog shouldn’t be taken lightly.

The biggest difference in the third meeting between Krejčíková and Rybakina is the grass surface.

In her career on grass, Krejčíková is 18-11 in 29 matches, winning 62% of her matches on the soft stuff, while Rybakina has gone 33-10 on grass, a 77% win rate on Wimbledon-like surfaces.

Rybakina picked up seven or more aces in each of here three matches, including seven aces against Elina Svitolina in her previous quarterfinal victory, so Krejčíková must be on her heels ready to counter quickly.

If Rybakina finds her serve, the 25-year-old Kazakhstani could overpower Krejčíková at any moment.

Ultimately, I believe Rybakina will take this match in straight sets, but considering that Rybakina has won four of her five first sets by an exact score of 6-3 during this Wimbledon tournament, I’ll take a swing on the correct score of the first set to fall on those numbers again.

Pick: Rybakina to Win in Straight Sets | Best Odds: (-150) bet365

Pick: Correct Score of 1st Set: Rybakina 6-3 | Best Odds: (+380) FanDuel

Donna Vekić vs. No. 7 Jasmine Paolini

Donna Vekić has made it to the semifinals in a major tournament for the first time in her career!

Question: Who was the last Croatian woman to reach the semifinals at Wimbledon?

Answer: Mirjana Lučić-Baroni in 1999.

Feel free to roll out this trivia question on your friends.

Vekić has made the Wimbledon semifinals but her path has not been easy. Four of Vekić’s five matches have gone the distance, with her 6-2, 6-3 match victory of Erika Andreeva in second round the only match she carried in straight sets.

On the other side, Paolini has cruised to four victories in straight sets outside of her close call with Madison Keys, and she is the betting favorite over Vekić.

The last time these two ladies met was the Courmayeur Ladies Open in 2021, and Vekić came out victorious, with Vekić winning 60% of return points.

Vekić should tally plenty of return points in this Wimbledon semifinals match against Paolini because the No. 7-ranked Paolini’s 46 aces is the lowest number of aces of any player inside the top 30 of the WTA rankings.

This tennis match is going to be a classic back-and-forth, but I’ll be backing the underdog Vekić to pull off the victory in three sets.

Pick: Vekić To Defeat Paolini | BestOdds: (+150) Caesars

Pick: Match To Go Three Sets | BestOdds: (+140) BetMGM

All lines are subject to change.

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