Updated: Dec 12, 2022
It’s just one week before the Christmas set of games and we are truly entering the final phase of the regular season.
We have some big divisional rivalries and bragging rights at stake in Week 15.
The Dolphins-Bills and Ravens-Browns stand out in the AFC.
The NFC’s Seahawks-49ers and Falcons-Saints will also have their loyal followers glued to their TVs, tablets, and cell phones.
From a betting value perspective, I’m choosing one of the oldest rivalries for my moneyline bet.
Like every week, I shall add five bets to my parlay this week. The first is always a moneyline dawg.
Next, I have thrown in two spread bets.
The final two components are an over and an under. This time around, if all five are correct, then my pay-out will be just under +3500.
This might not be as high as Weeks 13 and 14, but it’s still an exciting possible return.
My parlay last week followed a familiar pattern! I nailed the underdog yet again.
That’s five weeks in the past six that I’ve be on the money with the first leg of my parlay.
If I’d done the opposite on the other four legs of my parlay, I would have won! Maybe my colleague Lukasz did just that?!
The teams I expected to cover, did not. The game I thought would go over, went under. And you can guess what happened to the game which I thought would be under.
Well, the GOAT decided to put the Bucs on the scoreboard right at the death. That took the total to 42 when I was on the under at 40!
Moneyline – Giants Vs. Commanders (Best Odds – +180)
For four of the last five seasons, these NFC East rivals and legends of the game have brought up the rear of their division.
The same rings true in 2022. Both teams have winning records. The playoffs are still a possibility!
It’s been ages since these two teams had a decent group of Pro Bowlers in their franchise.
There are more tasty divisional clashes this weekend, especially in the AFC.
However, I’m more interested in landing my parlay. Weirdly, the Commanders visited the Giants just a fortnight ago.
In Week 13, the game in New York was a pick ‘em when I first looked at the game. I sided with the home team.
Well, the result was so close that you couldn’t pick’em apart!! A 20-20 tie was the result.
Now in Week 15, I’m staying loyal to the visiting Giants.
Daniel Jones may have been the unfortunate subject of this much-liked BestOdds Instagram post, but he has a better roster around him to cause an upset in Washington.
New York has won three of the last four trips down the road. That one defeat came by a solitary point. You know my views on Taylor Heinicke by now.
I think the Giants again have the number of the Commanders when they come visiting.
They sneak past their bitter rivals in a closely fought and high-scoring game.
Spread – Eagles (-8.5) Vs. Bears (-114)
Every now and again, you witness a spread line that leaves you scratching your head.
How is the league’s best offensive line not going to rock up in a chilly Soldier Field and roll over one of the poorest teams in the NFC by at least a field goal?
The Bears play in the Windy City. However, the average windspeed around Christmas in both Chicago and Philadelphia is 14 mph. Illinois might be a touch colder on average at that time of year, but my point is clear.
The Eagles will be used to the conditions. They travel great. Philly has a far superior roster. And they have something to play for! Can they go 13-1?
The Bears have struggled under center since the days of Jim McMahon.
Justin Fields doesn’t look like being the knight in shining armor for this franchise. His running game is excellent. It’s the throwing aspect which leaves a lot to be desired!
The importance of line shopping and seeking the best odds is clearly demonstrated here.
The sportsbooks rarely have the same odds, and some discrepancies can be stark.
In this particular game, if you fancied the Eagles to cover, you would be best to head to FanDuel for the -8.5 on offer. They have the best odds on the spread for Philly.
I think the Eagles win yet again by a double-digit scoreline.
Over/Under – Bengals Vs. Buccaneers (52) (-110)
It really is stark how the sportsbooks were too bullish on their totals before the season began. Last week, the 49ers and Bucs had a total at 40.
In August, it was at 49.
This time round the Bucs appear again for my under selection. Over the summer, this game sat at 52. It’s now just 42.
I was previously prepared to bet the over at 52. I’m particularly excited to see that it is a whole ten points lower now at 42!
I expected the Buccaneers and 49ers to struggle with putting on points last week. They managed to hit 42.
I predicted a tired and bashed-up 49ers would keep a handle on the Bucs.
I also took the 49ers to cover the spread in our office pool.
My parlay may not have hit, but at least I have bragging rights on how easily San Francisco did their business.
Now, back in Florida, I believe that the over has to be the right play.
The Bucs and the Bengals have two of the league’s best under center for keeping the scoreboard ticking along.
Blessed with explosive offensive assets and defenses which can sometimes leak points, this promises to be one of the best early Christmas presents.
I expect the GOAT to put one of his protégés in his place when it comes to the moneyline.
He has never lost at home against Cincinnati, and I see him retiring with that particular record intact. His last three games versus the Bengals have averaged 53 points.
May history repeat itself!
Spread – Ravens (+3) Vs. Browns (-115)
When I started researching this week’s 15 parlays, there were two spread markets that stood out for me. I’ve touched on the Eagles-Bears game above.
I saw great value in siding with the road favorites with a field-goal start. In this AFC North clash, the Ravens with +3 screamed at me similarly as a value bet.
I would still be siding with the visitors even if the spread market swings a point or two past the pick ‘em.
Deshaun is undoubtedly extremely gifted, but the Dawg Pound will have to wait until 2023 for him to change the franchise for the better.
He is still finding his feet. A well-drilled divisional rival with a better roster and better QB is a tough task to overcome.
Add in the fact that Cleveland is just 4-12 against the Ravens in Ohio since 2005 and you can see why I’d be prepared to chase this spread into negative territory.
I’m taking the Ravens to cover the spread. Come on Lamar!
Remember that it always pays to seek out the best value and the best odds.
Over/Under – 49ers Vs. Seahawks (43) (-110)
For the first 11 weeks of the season, the 49ers were one of my most selected teams.
I chose them to cover the spread and entertain us with high-scoring games. However, this week and last, I think their tough schedule is coming back to haunt them.
They may only be heading a couple of hours up the west coast by plane, but this is a team for which the scheduling gods were not kind!
Originally I thought that this game screamed out to go under the total when it was set at 45.5.
Now, I’m going to do something I’ve only done once before this season. I’m changing my mind against my original view.
I’m betting on the over! Yes, this week, I’m not putting in an under leg for my parlay. We shall have two overs.
In their last three games, these teams have averaged 55 points combined per game.
I sincerely hope this trend continues on Thursday night!
How To Bet NFL Parlays
A parlay bet is a sports wager that combines several bets on one ticket alone.
Usually, you would go with moneyline bets but can use spreads, totals, and futures.
You can include props in many cases, and bettors can choose to link together just two sides, or up to 15 or more depending on the sportsbook.
Parlays are wholly customizable meaning bettors get to choose how big they want the odds to go.
How many sides will be included, and how difficult is it to make each leg of the parlay or do the same game parlays.
The way to establish consistency is to have just two or three sides and avoid chasing astronomical odds.
It’s fine to take your shot at a massive payout as well, but be sure to only risk the money you’re prepared to lose.
Check out NFL parlay bets week 16 for betting ideas and to lock in early odds.
If you fancy regular bets, we got the NFL week 15 odds analysis worth checking out.