MLB Player Prop Season Has Arrived
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One or more smart and researched thoughts by veteran gambler and writer Malcolm Darnley to make your day and make your play.
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Malcolm loves to watch all kinds of different sports. He also writes about them.
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Many of us have grand ambitions in life, often only blocked by a lack of time to execute on these lofty goals.
We spend time commuting, folding laundry, exercising, or just doing the many different things that come with being an adult but prevent us from achieving our true greatness.
In reality, these are necessary chores required to survive in society.
Still, deep down, we know that an extra 30 minutes every now and then would enable us to be the person we have always wanted to be.
We could change the world in so many wonderful ways – if only we had more time.
When we think about the greatest inventions ever made or discovered, we think about things like:
- Fire
- The Wheel
- Penicillin
- And now we can add MLB’s pitch clock to that list.
Yesterday was opening day in Major League Baseball. There were 15 games played, with all 30 teams in action.
The average length of an opening day game was 2 hours and 42 minutes. That is 29 minutes less than the average game time on opening day last year.
If you are a baseball fan and enjoy watching and betting on MLB, the pitch clock just found you an extra 29 minutes in your day for the next seven months.
We no longer have any excuses holding us back.
Let’s make sure we use our newfound time to change the world for the better.
Faith In Cristian
The Houston Astros lost a pretty good pitcher when Justin Verlander signed with the Mets in the off-season. However, the Astros still have some decent arms left.
Framber Valdez was their opening-day starter, but many Astros fans believe Cristian Javier will be discussed as Houston’s best pitcher by the time this season ends.
In Game 2 of the regular season, Javier has a strikeout prop total set at +5.5 K’s.
Our graphic above is a snapshot of Javier’s last five regular season starts in 2022.
The Houston right-hander had at least six strikeouts in all five of those games.
In 2022, Javier had a strikeout rate of 11.8 K’s per 9 innings.
If he continued that pace in his first start this year, anyone looking to go Over +5.5 K’s would need him to pitch just under five innings today to reach his total.
Something that seems very doable, even if he is on an early season pitch count.
At home in Minute Maid Park, Javier has been pretty dominant, even if he doesn’t tend to go deep into games. The key stat for us is that he averages almost +6.5 strikeouts per start.
Science Vs. Non-Science
Obviously, we have access to some cool data that is helping us make some informed betting decisions, even early in the 2023 MLB season.
But as bettors, we must also listen to our instincts along with what the data tells us.
I’m all in on Javier over +5.5 K’s today, not just because the data points us in that direction but also because of a man known as Paulie V.
I’ve never met Paulie V, nor could I pick him out of a lineup. He prefers to operate in the shadows and stay out of sight.
Paulie V has some gifts to offer this world, maybe none bigger than his ability to play fantasy baseball.
Today, Big Paulie has Cristian Javier on the bump while my fantasy team (Chips Eloy!) counters with Lance Lynn.
My full unit wager on Javier OVER +5.5 K’s today isn’t so much a bet on the future Houston Ace.
It’s a bet on Paulie V doing Paulie V like things… and that means beating me at Fantasy Baseball, yet again.
Wishing you the best of luck with all your MLB picks and parlays this season.