2023 Stanley Cup Finals Have Arrived

Florida Panthers (+105 to win the Cup)

• The Florida Panthers finished with 92 regular season points this year, qualifying as the 16th and final team to make the NHL playoffs.
• Florida has been an underdog in all three playoff rounds, beating: Boston (+320), Toronto (+175), and Carolina (+115).
• After trailing Boston 3-1 in their opening-round series, the Panthers have won 11 of their last 12 games.

Vegas Golden Knights (-125 to win the Cup)

• Vegas finished with 111 regular season points and were the number-one seed in the Western Conference to start the playoffs.
• The Golden Knights are 12-5 in the playoffs and have knocked off Winnipeg, Edmonton, and Dallas to reach the Cup finals.
• VGK has seven forwards with at least 11 points in their 17 games. However, only Jack Eichel (18 points in 17 games) is averaging more than a point per game.

Betting Analysis

• At the beginning of the playoffs, the Florida Panthers were +320 just to win their opening-round series against the Bruins. Nobody expected them to get this far.
• The Panthers named Alex Lyon to be their number-one goalie to start the playoffs. Since taking over for Lyon, backup Sergei Bobrovsky is 11-2 with a .935 save percentage and is the Conn Smythe trophy betting favorite to start the final series.
• The Golden Knights started the playoffs with Laurent Brossoit as their number-one goalie but lost him along the way due to injury. Since taking over the netminding duties, backup Adin Hill is 7-3, with a .937 save percentage.
• The 2023 Stanley Cup Final will deliver the first-ever Stanley Cup to the victor, as Vegas and Florida have yet to win hockey’s biggest prize.

It’s hard to imagine that the two remaining teams playing for the Stanley Cup are starting their backup goalies in the final series, but here we are.

Need To Know Stanley Cup Finals Betting Trends

• Over the last 20 years, the betting favorite in the Stanley Cup Finals is 16-4.
• Vegas is currently -125 to win the Cup, and Florida is +105. The last time the odds were this close came back in 2007 when Anaheim (-120) defeated Ottawa (+100) in five games.
• The only 8th seed to win the Stanley Cup Finals was the 2012 Los Angeles Kings. However, by the time the final series began, the Kings were a heavy -170 favorite against the New Jersey Devils.
• The 2020 Montreal Canadians (+240), the 2017 Nashville Predators (+145) and the 2006 Edmonton Oilers (+120) all reached the Stanley Cup Finals as 8th seeds, but all three of those teams lost the final series.

Betting Analysis

• Over the last 20 years, the betting favorites have dominated, winning the final series 80% of the time.
• However, favorites have won just three of the last five Stanley Cup Finals (60%). The 2019 St. Louis Blues (+140) and 2018 Washington Capitals (+133), who defeated the Vegas Golden Knights, were the last underdogs to win the cup.

Stanley Cup Finals Props To Consider

Most Goals In Series 

Player	DraftKings	FanDuel	Caesars
Matthew Tkachuk	+450	+390	+400
Jack Eichel	+550	+700	+500
Jonathan Marchessault	+600	+750	+550
Carter Verhaeghe	+600	+550	+600
Aleksander Barkov	+900	+1000	+1000
Mark Stone	+1000	+1000	+1000

Vegas Playoff Goal-Scoring Leaders

Player	Total	RD 1	RD 2	RD 3
W. Karlsson	10	4	1	5
J. Marchessault	9	0	5	4
C. Stephenson	8	4	2	2
J. Eichel	6	3	3	0
I. Barbashev	6	1	3	2
M. Stone	6	3	2	1

Betting Analysis

• William Karlsson led VGK in goals against Winnipeg (RD1) and Dallas (RD3). Karlsson is currently listed at +2000 on FanDuel to lead the final series in goals.
• Interesting that Jack Eichel was held without a goal in the last series vs. Dallas.
• Jonathan Marchessault has 9 goals in the last two rounds, which leads VGK in that time.

Florida Playoff Goal-Scoring Leaders

Player	Total	RD 1	RD 2	RD 3
M. Tkachuk	9	5	0	4
S. Reinhart	7	4	2	1
C. Verhaeghe	6	2	3	1
B. Montour	6	5	1	0
A. Barkov	4	1	1	2
S. Bennett	4	3	1	0

• It’s easy to see why Matthew Tkachuk is the betting favorite among Panthers players to lead the series in goals. Tkachuk was held without a goal in the second round but led Florida in goals in the other two rounds.
• Florida only scored 10 goals in their third-round sweep against Carolina, with Tkachuk accounting for 40% of them. I suspect VGK will put an emphasis on shutting down Tkachuk in the Finals; whether they can pull that off is to be determined.
• Carter Verhaeghe led Florida with 42 goals in the regular season and is +600 to lead the final series.

Series Total Games

Total Games	Odds	Last 20 Years
4-Games (Sweep)	+580	0 of 20 (0%)
5-Games	+265	5 of 20 (25%)
6-Games	+198	9 of 20 (45%)
7-Games	+194	6 of 20 (30%)

Betting Analysis

• Maybe think twice about sprinkling on a Vegas or Florida sweep. There have been ZERO (0) series sweeps in the Stanley Cup Final over the last 20 years!
• In the last 10 years, only one series has gone the full 7 games. That was in 2019 when the underdog St. Louis Blues beat the Boston Bruins.
• In the last 20 years, four times the betting underdog upset the favorite to win the Cup. In 3 of those 4 years, the final series went 7-Games. Meaning if you like the underdog Panthers to win this series, expect Vegas to still win at least a couple of games.

Conn Smythe Trophy Winner

Odds To Win Conn Smythe Trophy

Player	DraftKings	FanDuel	Caesars
S. Bobrovsky	+210	+200	+200
M. Tkachuk	+290	+360	+250
J. Eichel	+425	+400	+375
W. Karlsson	+700	+700	+650
Hill	+1200	+1000	+1200

Betting Analysis

Dating back to 1987, only twice has the Conn Smythe trophy been awarded to a player on the losing team.

• In 2003, J.S. Giguere won it as the starting goalie for the Anaheim Mighty Ducks. (lost to NJ in 7-Games)
• In 1987, Ron Hextall was the starting goalie for the Philadelphia Flyers, who lost to the Edmonton Oilers in 7-Games.

The obvious play (to me) is to grab Jack Eichel at +425 (DraftKings). Eichel is the Golden Knights’ best player, and Vegas is the slight betting favorite to win the Stanley Cup.

There is a chance that Bobrovsky could still win the Conn Smythe even if Florida doesn’t win the Stanley Cup. However, history tells us it is much more likely to go to someone from the winning team.

If you’re looking for a bit of a long shot, VGK’s Adin Hill (+1200) is also an interesting play for me.

Hill’s numbers appear to be right there with what Bobrovsky is doing these playoffs, but he has generated far less attention through three rounds.