San Diego Padres vs. Houston Astros: Best Odds and Preview for September 4, 2021


By BestOdds Analyst | September 4, 2021, 2:49 am

Framber Valdez’s Houston Astros (79-55) are underdogs (-100) against the San Diego Padres (71-64) (-118) on Saturday as he attempts to collect his 10th victory of the 2021 campaign. The outing starts at 8:40 PM ET.

San Diego’s Joe Musgrove and Houston’s Valdez will take the mound first.

Best Odds for San Diego Padres vs Houston Astros

Welcome to the BestOdds betting breakdown where we use data from our industry leading partner, Sportradar, to identify performance trends in order to analyze teams’ chances to win the upcoming game.

Today, we are looking at the MLB matchup between the San Diego Padres and Houston Astros in which the Astros are currently the pick at sportsbooks based on money wagered at regulated sportsbooks, yet the Padres have picked up a majority of the total number of tickets wagered.

Padres vs Astros Moneyline Action

Padres vs Astros Moneyline Action
Padres Astros
% of Bets 69% 31%
% of Stake 36% 64%

Padres Insights

Betting Trends

  • The Padres have won in 63, or 57.8%, of the 109 contests they have been named as odds-on favorites in this year.
  • San Diego’s games have gone over the total in 69 of their 135 opportunities.
  • The Padres rank 11th in the league with 619 total runs scored this season.
  • San Diego has been favored in six of its past 10 games and won three of those matchups.
  • In their last 10 matchups with a total posted by sportsbooks, the Padres and their foes are 4-4-2 when it comes to hitting the over.

Probable Starting Pitcher Stats

  • Musgrove (9-8) is looking for his 10th victory when he takes the mound first for the Padres in his 26th start of the season. He’s put together a 2.85 ERA in 148 1/3 innings pitched, with 169 strikeouts.
  • In his last time out on Saturday, Aug. 28, the right-hander threw nine scoreless innings against the Angels while surrendering three hits.
  • Musgrove’s team has won 14 of his 25 starts.
  • Musgrove has had 25 starts with a total this season, and the teams combined hit the over in 12 of those games.

Key Players

Name GP BA OBP SLG HR RBI H
Fernando Tatis Jr. 103 .280 .357 .633 36 81 106
Adam Frazier 98 .324 .386 .448 4 32 125
Manny Machado 127 .274 .335 .484 23 87 129
Jake Cronenworth 131 .265 .334 .461 19 61 131
Wil Myers 121 .261 .342 .446 16 55 96
BestOdds rating 9.4
Risk Free Bet Up To $5,000
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Astros Insights

Betting Trends

  • The Astros have won 50% of the games this season they were the underdog on the moneyline (12-12).
  • Houston has played in 134 games with a set over/under, and has combined with their opponents to go over the total 68 times (68-59-7).
  • The Astros have the No. 2 offense in MLB action scoring 5.3 runs per game (705 total runs).
  • Houston has not been the moneyline underdog over the last 10 games.
  • In their last 10 outings — all of which had a set run total — the Astros and their opponents combined to go over the total two times.

Probable Starting Pitcher Stats

  • Valdez (9-4) is looking for his 10th win when he takes the mound first for the Astros in his 18th start of the season. He has a 2.91 ERA in 105 innings pitched, with 99 strikeouts.
  • His most recent appearance came on Saturday against the Rangers, when the left-hander threw seven innings, surrendering two earned runs while allowing three hits.
  • Valdez’s team is 11-6 over his 17 starts.
  • Valdez’s starts went over the run total eight times in 17 games with a set total this season.

Key Players

Name GP BA OBP SLG HR RBI H
Yordan Alvarez 117 .282 .342 .536 28 89 124
Kyle Tucker 109 .281 .334 .526 23 75 115
Carlos Correa 123 .277 .367 .481 21 72 127
Yuli Gurriel 117 .312 .378 .466 13 70 136
Jacob Meyers 24 .317 .337 .488 3 17 26

Pick for Padres vs. Astros

Our in-depth statistical analysis combined with the betting split data from regulated betting sites favors the Astros to win over the Padres.

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