Northern Arizona vs. Cal Poly Betting Odds & Game Analysis | College Football Week 12 Predictions


By Dan Watson | November 19, 2021, 3:01 pm

The Northern Arizona Lumberjacks (4-6, 0-0 Big Sky) are solid favorites — expected to win by at least a touchdown (currently -9) — against the Cal Poly Mustangs (2-8, 0-0 Big Sky) in a battle of two conference rivals. The total for this one is set at 54 points.

Welcome to the BestOdds betting breakdown where we use data from our industry leading partner, Sportradar, to identify performance trends in order to analyze teams’ chances in the upcoming game.

Northern Arizona stats and betting info

Betting trends for Northern Arizona

  • Northern Arizona is 4-5-0 against the spread this season.
  • The Lumberjacks are a perfect 1-0 against the spread when favored by 9 points or more this season.
  • Northern Arizona games have hit the over in four out of nine opportunities (44.4%).
  • Northern Arizona and its opponents have combined to outscore Saturday’s over/under of 54 points four times this season.
  • This season the average total for Lumberjacks games is 50.9 points, 3.1 fewer than the over/under of 54 points for this contest.
  • The Lumberjacks average 43.1 fewer yards per game (24.0) than the Mustangs give up per outing (67.1).
  • The Lumberjacks have turned the ball over three times this season, two more turnovers than the Mustangs have forced (1).
Stat Average (Total) Rank
Pass yards 228.8 (2288) 44
Rush yards 159.8 (1598) 42
Points scored 22.6 (226) 80
Pass yards against 284.9 (2849) 127
Rush yards against 160.7 (1607) 78
Points allowed 30.9 (309) 89

Key players for Northern Arizona

  • RJ Martinez has thrown for 1,546 yards (154.6 ypg) to lead Northern Arizona, completing 63.1% of his passes and collecting 13 touchdown passes and two interceptions this season. He’s also run for 215 yards (21.5 ypg) on 50 carries with five rushing touchdowns.
  • Kevin Daniels’ team-high 884 rushing yards (88.4 per game) have come on 157 carries, with two touchdowns this year.
  • Coleman Owen’s 544 receiving yards (54.4 yards per game) lead all receivers on the team. He’s registered 36 receptions and five touchdowns.
BestOdds rating 9.3
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Cal Poly stats and betting info

Betting trends for Cal Poly

  • Cal Poly is 3-6-0 against the spread this season.
  • In games they have played as at least 9-point underdogs this season, the Mustangs are 2-6 against the spread.
  • Cal Poly games have gone over the point total in four out of nine opportunities (44.4%).
  • In Cal Poly’s nine games this season, four have finished with more combined scoring than Saturday’s point total of 54.
  • The over/under for this game is 1.2 points fewer than the average over/under in Mustangs’ games this season (55.2 points).
  • The Mustangs average 27.4 yards per game, only 8.9 fewer than the 36.3 the Lumberjacks allow.
  • This year the Mustangs have two turnovers, one fewer than the Lumberjacks have takeaways (3).
Stat Average (Total) Rank
Pass yards 221.0 (2210) 51
Rush yards 78.2 (782) 123
Points scored 14.8 (148) 120
Pass yards against 251.5 (2515) 106
Rush yards against 207.4 (2074) 119
Points allowed 38.6 (386) 120

Key players for Cal Poly

  • Spencer Brasch has 1,566 passing yards (156.6 ypg) to lead Cal Poly, completing 56.7% of his passes and throwing 10 touchdown passes and six interceptions this season.
  • Shakobe Harper’s team-high 250 rushing yards (25.0 per game) have come on 82 carries, with three touchdowns this year.
  • Chris Coleman’s team-leading 556 receiving yards (55.6 yards per game) have come on 36 receptions with four touchdowns.

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