New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins: Best Odds and Preview for September 9, 2021

By BestOdds Analyst | September 8, 2021, 10:45 pm

The New York Mets (70-70) and the Miami Marlins (58-81) meet on Thursday at 6:40 PM ET to break a 1-1 series tie. The Mets are favored (-169) to win the contest against the Marlins (+147).

New York’s Marcus Stroman starts against Miami’s Jesus Luzardo.

Best Odds for New York Mets vs Miami Marlins

Welcome to the BestOdds betting breakdown where we use data from our industry leading partner, Sportradar, to identify performance trends in order to analyze teams’ chances to win the upcoming game.

Today, we are looking at the MLB matchup between the New York Mets and Miami Marlins in which the Mets are currently the clear pick among bettors at regulated sportsbooks to claim victory.

Mets vs Marlins Moneyline Action

Mets vs Marlins Moneyline Action
Mets Marlins
% of Bets 79% 21%
% of Stake 90% 10%

Mets Insights

Betting Trends

  • The Mets have been victorous in 50, or 59.5%, of the 84 contests they have been chosen as favorites in this season.
  • New York and their opponents have hit the over in 57 of their 140 games with a total set by oddsmakers this season.
  • The Mets have scored the third-fewest runs in the league this season with just 547 (3.9 per game).
  • In 10 games as the favorite over the last 10 matchups, New York has a record of 7-3.
  • In their previous 10 games with a total, the Mets and their opponents have combined to clear the over/under on four occasions.

Probable Starting Pitcher Stats

  • Stroman will aim to grab his 10th victory when he makes the start for the Mets, his 30th of the season. He is 9-12 with a 2.93 ERA and 136 strikeouts over 156 2/3 innings pitched.
  • In his most recent time out on Saturday, the right-hander tossed five innings against the Nationals, allowing three earned runs while surrendering six hits.
  • Stroman’s team has won 15 of his 29 starts.
  • Stroman has had 29 starts that sportsbooks set a total for this season, and 11 of those matchups finished over the total.

Key Players

Pete Alonso 130 .267 .339 .524 32 84 128
J.D. Davis 62 .298 .392 .460 5 22 48
Javier Báez 27 .260 .317 .500 6 12 25
Jonathan Villar 120 .263 .335 .458 18 40 100
Javier Báez 91 .248 .290 .484 22 65 83
BestOdds rating 9.4
Risk Free Bet Up To $5,000

Marlins Insights

Betting Trends

  • The Marlins have won 34.7% of the games this season they were the underdog on the moneyline (33-62).
  • Miami has played in 139 games with an over/under set, and has combined with their opponents to go over the total 61 times (61-69-9).
  • The Marlins are the fourth-lowest scoring team in baseball averaging four runs per game (550 total).
  • Miami was the underdog on the moneyline in nine of its last 10 games, and went 4-5 in those matchups.
  • Over their last 10 matchups (all had set totals), the Marlins combined with their opponents to hit the over on the run total three times.

Probable Starting Pitcher Stats

  • Luzardo gets the start for the Marlins, his eighth of the season. He is 3-3 with a 7.15 ERA and 31 strikeouts in 34 innings pitched.
  • The lefty’s last appearance came on Friday against the Phillies, when he tossed 5 2/3 innings, surrendering three earned runs while allowing five hits.
  • Luzardo’s team is 4-3 in his seven starts.
  • Luzardo has had seven starts with a total this season, and the teams combined to hit the over in five of those games.

Key Players

Bryan De La Cruz 33 .342 .386 .479 3 13 40
Eddy Alvarez 1 .250 .250 .500 0 1 1
Miguel Rojas 114 .273 .333 .409 8 40 117
Jazz Chisholm 101 .253 .311 .428 14 44 95
Jesús Sánchez 44 .232 .296 .419 7 21 36

Pick for Mets vs. Marlins

Betting split data from regulated betting sites combined with our in-depth games analysis favors the Mets to win over the Marlins.

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