New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins: Best Odds and Preview for September 8, 2021

By BestOdds Analyst | September 7, 2021, 10:46 pm

Jonathan Villar will look for his 100th hit of the season (he has 99) when his New York Mets (69-69) play the Miami Marlins (57-80) on Wednesday at 6:40 PM ET. The Mets are favored (-124) over the Marlins (+106).

New York’s Rich Hill and Miami’s Sandy Alcantara pitch first for their squads in this matchup.

Best Odds for New York Mets vs Miami Marlins

Welcome to the BestOdds betting breakdown where we use data from our industry leading partner, Sportradar, to identify performance trends in order to analyze teams’ chances to win the upcoming game.

Today, we are looking at the MLB matchup between the New York Mets and Miami Marlins in which the Mets are currently the clear pick among bettors at regulated sportsbooks to claim victory.

Mets vs Marlins Moneyline Action

Mets vs Marlins Moneyline Action
Mets Marlins
% of Bets 76% 24%
% of Stake 85% 15%

Mets Insights

Betting Trends

  • The Mets have won in 49, or 59.8%, of the 82 contests they have been named as odds-on favorites in this year.
  • New York’s games have gone over the total in 56 of their 138 opportunities.
  • The Mets are among the lowest scoring teams in the league, ranking 28th with just 537 total runs (3.9 per game) this season.
  • In 10 games as the favorite over the last 10 matchups, New York has a record of 8-2.
  • When it comes to the over/under, the Mets and their opponents are 5-3-2 in their previous 10 games.

Probable Starting Pitcher Stats

  • Hill gets the start for the Mets, his eighth of the season. He is 0-2 with a 4.06 ERA and 28 strikeouts in 37 2/3 innings pitched.
  • The lefty’s most recent appearance came on Friday against the Nationals, when he went six scoreless innings while allowing three hits.
  • Hill’s team is 3-4 over his seven starts.
  • Hill’s starts with a set total this season have hit the over in one of seven games.

Key Players

Javier Báez 25 .273 .326 .534 6 11 24
Pete Alonso 128 .265 .337 .512 30 81 125
J.D. Davis 61 .294 .388 .450 5 21 47
Jonathan Villar 118 .265 .335 .464 18 39 99
Javier Báez 91 .248 .290 .484 22 65 83
BestOdds rating 9.4
$1,001 In Free Bets

Marlins Insights

Betting Trends

  • The Marlins have won 32 of the 93 games they were the moneyline underdog this season (34.4%).
  • Miami has played in 137 games with an over/under set, and has combined with their opponents to go over the total 60 times (60-68-9).
  • The Marlins are the fourth-lowest scoring team in MLB action averaging four runs per game (544 total).
  • Miami played as the moneyline underdog for eight of its last 10 games, and went 3-5 in those matchups.
  • In their last 10 matchups, the Marlins and their opponents combined to hit the over three times.

Probable Starting Pitcher Stats

  • Alcantara gets the start for the Marlins, his 29th of the season. He is 8-13 with a 3.36 ERA and 164 strikeouts over 171 2/3 innings pitched.
  • His last appearance was on Thursday against the Mets, when the right-hander threw 6 1/3 innings, surrendering four earned runs while giving up eight hits.
  • Over Alcantara’s 28 starts, his team is 11-17.
  • Alcantara has had 28 starts that sportsbooks set a total for this season, and seven of those outings hit the over.

Key Players

Bryan De La Cruz 31 .336 .385 .477 3 12 36
Jesús Aguilar 131 .261 .323 .459 22 93 117
Jazz Chisholm 99 .254 .314 .434 14 44 93
Miguel Rojas 113 .276 .335 .413 8 40 117
Jesús Sánchez 42 .234 .302 .434 7 20 34

Pick for Mets vs. Marlins

The Mets are favored to win over the Marlins based on our in-depth statistical analysis combined with the bet split data provided by regulated betting sites.

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