New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins: Best Odds and Preview for September 7, 2021


By BestOdds Analyst | September 6, 2021, 4:46 pm

Jonathan Villar sits at 99 hits this season, and will try to collect his 100th when his New York Mets (69-69) play the Miami Marlins (57-80) on Tuesday at 6:40 PM ET. The Mets are favored (-156) over the Marlins (+141).

Carlos Carrasco starts for New York while Miami will counter with Edward Cabrera.

Best Odds for New York Mets vs Miami Marlins

Welcome to the BestOdds betting breakdown where we use data from our industry leading partner, Sportradar, to identify performance trends in order to analyze teams’ chances to win the upcoming game.

Today, we are looking at the MLB matchup between the New York Mets and Miami Marlins in which the Mets are currently the clear pick among bettors at regulated sportsbooks to claim victory.

Mets vs Marlins Moneyline Action

Mets vs Marlins Moneyline Action
Mets Marlins
% of Bets 92% 8%
% of Stake 97% 3%

Mets Insights

Betting Trends

  • The Mets have been favorites in 82 games this season and have come away with the win 49 times (59.8%) in those contests.
  • New York and its opponents have gone over the total this season in 56 of their 138 opportunities.
  • The Mets have scored the third-fewest runs in the league this season with just 534 (3.9 per game).
  • New York has been favored in 10 of its past 10 games and won eight of those matchups.
  • In their previous 10 games with a total, the Mets and their opponents have combined to clear the over/under on five occasions.

Probable Starting Pitcher Stats

  • Carrasco (0-2 with a 6.59 ERA and 28 strikeouts in 28 2/3 innings pitched) makes the start for the Mets, his eighth of the season.
  • His most recent appearance was on Thursday against the Marlins, when the right-hander threw 5 1/3 innings, surrendering three earned runs while giving up four hits.
  • Carrasco’s team is 3-4 in his seven starts.
  • Carrasco’s starts hit the over on the run total three times in seven games with a set total this season.

Key Players

Name GP BA OBP SLG HR RBI H
Javier Báez 25 .273 .326 .534 6 11 24
Pete Alonso 128 .265 .337 .512 30 81 125
J.D. Davis 61 .294 .388 .450 5 21 47
Jonathan Villar 118 .265 .335 .464 18 39 99
Javier Báez 91 .248 .290 .484 22 65 83
BestOdds rating 9.4
Risk Free Bet Up To $5,000
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Marlins Insights

Betting Trends

  • The Marlins have won 32 of the 93 games they were the moneyline underdog this season (34.4%).
  • In the 137 games oddsmakers have set an over/under for Miami, it has combined with opponents to go over the total 60 times (60-68-9).
  • The Marlins have the No. 27 offense in MLB play scoring four runs per game (544 total runs).
  • Miami went 3-5 over the eight games it was the underdog on the moneyline in its last 10 matchups.
  • In their last 10 outings (all 10 of them had set totals), the Marlins and their opponents combined to go over the run total three times.

Probable Starting Pitcher Stats

  • Cabrera (0-1) makes the start for the Marlins, his third of the season.
  • His last appearance came on Tuesday against the Mets, when the right-hander threw four innings, surrendering three earned runs while allowing seven hits.
  • His team split the two games he’s appeared in this season.
  • Cabrera’s two starts with a total this season both went under.

Key Players

Name GP BA OBP SLG HR RBI H
Deven Marrero 7 .300 .417 .600 1 1 3
Bryan De La Cruz 31 .336 .385 .477 3 12 36
Jesús Aguilar 131 .261 .323 .459 22 93 117
Jazz Chisholm 99 .254 .314 .434 14 44 93
Miguel Rojas 113 .276 .335 .413 8 40 117

Pick for Mets vs. Marlins

Betting split data provided by regulated betting sites paired with our in-depth games analysis favors the Mets to win over the Marlins.

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