New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins: Best Odds and Preview for September 30, 2021

By BestOdds Analyst | September 29, 2021, 10:48 pm

Javier Baez brings a 13-game hitting streak into the New York Mets’ (75-83) matchup with the Miami Marlins (65-93). The Mets are favored (-205) in this matchup with the Marlins (+175), which starts at 7:10 PM ET on Thursday at Citi Field.

New York’s Tylor Megill starts against Miami’s Edward Cabrera.

Best Odds for New York Mets vs Miami Marlins

Welcome to the BestOdds betting breakdown where we use data from our industry leading partner, Sportradar, to identify performance trends in order to analyze teams’ chances to win the upcoming game.

Today, we are looking at the MLB matchup between the New York Mets and Miami Marlins.

Mets Insights

Betting Trends

  • The Mets have won in 54, or 58.7%, of the 92 contests they have been named as odds-on favorites in this year.
  • New York’s games have gone over the total in 66 of their 158 opportunities.
  • The Mets are among the lowest scoring teams in the league, ranking 27th with just 615 total runs (3.9 per game) this season.
  • In four games as the favorite over the last 10 matchups, New York has a record of 3-1.
  • When it comes to the over/under, the Mets and their foes are 4-6 in their last 10 contests.

Probable Starting Pitcher Stats

  • Megill makes the start for the Mets, his 18th of the season. He is 3-6 with a 4.78 ERA and 93 strikeouts in 84 2/3 innings pitched.
  • The right-hander’s last appearance came on Saturday against the Brewers, when he went four innings, surrendering four earned runs while giving up five hits.
  • Megill’s team has a 9-8 record in his 17 starts.
  • Megill has started 17 games with a total set by oddsmakers this season. The teams have combined to go over the run total in seven of them.

Key Players

Javier Báez 45 .314 .381 .541 9 22 50
Pete Alonso 148 .256 .332 .505 35 89 140
Brandon Nimmo 87 .297 .404 .429 6 25 92
Javier Báez 91 .248 .290 .484 22 65 83
Jonathan Villar 138 .251 .320 .422 18 41 111
BestOdds rating 9.4
Risk Free Bet Up To $5,000

Marlins Insights

Betting Trends

  • The Marlins have gone 37-70 in games they were the underdog on the moneyline (winning 34.6% of those games).
  • Miami has played in 158 games with an over/under set, and has combined with their opponents to go over the total 70 times (70-77-11).
  • The Marlins are the third-lowest scoring team in MLB play averaging 3.9 runs per game (612 total).
  • Miami went 2-5 across the seven games it was the underdog on the moneyline in its last 10 matchups.
  • In their last 10 outings, the Marlins and their opponents combined to hit the over five times.

Probable Starting Pitcher Stats

  • Cabrera (0-3) gets the starting nod for the Marlins in his seventh start of the season. He’s put together a 5.79 ERA in 23 1/3 innings pitched, with 22 strikeouts.
  • The right-hander’s most recent time out came on Friday against the Rays, when he threw three innings, surrendering three earned runs while giving up two hits.
  • Cabrera’s team has compiled a 1-5 record over his six starts.
  • Cabrera’s starts with a set total this season have gone over the run total in two of six contests.

Key Players

Nick Fortes 10 .348 .423 .739 3 5 8
Jesús Sánchez 63 .249 .309 .489 14 36 56
Bryan De La Cruz 52 .296 .353 .435 5 19 55
Jazz Chisholm 120 .250 .305 .426 17 49 112
Lewin Diaz 36 .215 .243 .486 8 13 23

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