New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins: Best Odds and Preview for Week 1


By BestOdds Analyst | September 7, 2021, 4:03 pm

The New England Patriots (0-0) are the favorites — expected to win by at least a field goal, but less than a touchdown (currently -3) — against the Miami Dolphins (0-0) in a battle of two division rivals. The game has an over/under of 43.5 points.

Best odds for Patriots vs. Dolphins

Welcome to the BestOdds betting breakdown where we use data from our industry leading partner, Sportradar, to identify performance trends in order to analyze teams’ chances in the upcoming game.

Patriots Vs. Dolphins Spread Betting Action

Patriots vs Dolphins Moneyline Action
Patriots Dolphins
Bet % 46% 54%
Stake % 53% 47%

New England stats and betting info

Betting trends for New England

  • New England won seven games against the spread last season, while failing to cover nine times.
  • The Patriots were 3-3 ATS last season when playing as at least 3-point favorites.
  • New England and its opponents combined to hit the over five out of 16 times last season.
Stat Average (Total) Rank
Pass yards 195.3 (3124) 30
Rush yards 146.6 (2346) 4
Points scored 20.4 (326) 27
Pass yards against 232.6 (3722) 6
Rush yards against 131.4 (2103) 26
Points allowed 22.1 (353) 7

Key players for New England

  • Last year, Damien Harris went to work rushing for 691 yards on 137 carries (57.6 yards per game) and scored two touchdowns.
  • James White ran for 121 yards on 35 carries (7.6 ypg), with two rushing touchdowns last year. White also made his name known on the passing side of the game with 49 receptions for 375 yards (23.4 ypg) and one touchdown.
  • In the previous season, Nelson Agholor reeled in 48 catches for 896 yards (56 ypg) while he was targeted 82 times. He also scored eight touchdowns.
  • Jakobi Meyers amassed 729 yards on 59 grabs. He was targeted 81 times and averaged 45.6 receiving yards per game last year.
  • Last season Kendrick Bourne grabbed 49 passes on 74 targets for 667 yards and two touchdowns, averaging 44.5 receiving yards per game.

New England injuries

Patriots: Gunner Olszewski: Out (Foot), N’Keal Harry: Questionable (Shoulder), Cassh Maluia: Questionable (Knee), Chase Winovich: Questionable (Shoulder), Yodny Cajuste: Out (Knee), Dalton Keene: Questionable (Neck), Jonathan Jones: Questionable (Foot)

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Miami stats and betting info

Betting trends for Miami

  • Miami put together an 11-5-0 record against the spread last season.
  • When playing as at least 3-point underdogs last season, the Dolphins had an ATS record of 5-2.
  • Last season, seven of Miami’s games hit the over.
Stat Average (Total) Rank
Pass yards 246.1 (3937) 21
Rush yards 105.5 (1688) 22
Points scored 25.3 (404) 15
Pass yards against 273.3 (4373) 27
Rush yards against 116.4 (1862) 16
Points allowed 21.1 (338) 5

Key players for Miami

  • Tua Tagovailoa completed 64.1% of his passes to throw for 1,814 yards and 11 touchdowns last season.
  • Myles Gaskin racked up three rushing touchdowns on 58.4 yards per game last season. Gaskin was also productive in the passing game, accumulating 41 catches and two touchdowns over the course of the year.
  • Malcolm Brown rushed for 419 yards and five touchdowns last season.
  • Will Fuller V averaged 79.9 yards on 4.8 receptions per game and racked up eight receiving touchdowns in 2020.
  • DeVante Parker hauled in four touchdowns and had 793 receiving yards (49.6 ypg) in 2020.
  • Mike Gesicki averaged 43.9 receiving yards per game on 5.3 targets per game a season ago.

Miami injuries

Dolphins: Clayton Fejedelem: Doubtful (Pectoral)

Pick for Patriots vs. Dolphins

Our in-depth statistical analysis combined with the betting split data provided by regulated betting sites points to the Patriots being favored to cover the spread against the Dolphins.

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