Morehead State vs. Valparaiso Betting Odds & Game Analysis | College Football Week 12 Predictions


By Dan Watson | November 19, 2021, 2:55 pm

In a matchup of two conference rivals, the Valparaiso Beacons (4-6, 0-0 Pioneer) will face off against the Morehead State Eagles (6-4, 0-0 Pioneer). The Beacons are the favorites, expected to win by at least a field goal but less than a touchdown (currently -5.5). The over/under for this one is set at 59.5 points.

Welcome to the BestOdds betting breakdown where we use data from our industry leading partner, Sportradar, to identify performance trends in order to analyze teams’ chances in the upcoming game.

Valparaiso stats and betting info

Betting trends for Valparaiso

  • Valparaiso has a 6-3-0 record against the spread this season.
  • The Beacons are 1-2 against the spread when favored by 5.5 points or more this season.
  • Valparaiso games have gone over the point total in five out of nine opportunities (55.6%).
  • Valparaiso and its opponents have combined to outscore Saturday’s total (59.5 points) three times this season.
  • On average, the over/under in Beacons games is 6.3 points fewer than the over/under of 59.5 points in this contest.
  • The Beacons collect 296.9 yards per game, 129.3 fewer yards than the 426.2 the Eagles give up per outing.
  • This year, the Beacons have turned the ball over zero times, while the Eagles have forced zero.
Stat Average (Total) Rank
Pass yards 161.2 (1612) 109
Rush yards 135.7 (1357) 75
Points scored 26.0 (260) 61
Pass yards against 205.0 (2050) 54
Rush yards against 136.8 (1368) 43
Points allowed 29.5 (295) 82

Key players for Valparaiso

  • Ben Nimz has thrown for 1,063 yards (106.3 ypg) to lead Valparaiso, completing 58.8% of his passes and recording seven touchdown passes and four interceptions this season.
  • The team’s top rusher, Robert Washington, has carried the ball 178 times for 947 yards (94.7 per game), with 13 touchdowns this year. He’s proven to be a dual threat, racking up 287 receiving yards (28.7 per game) on 35 catches.
  • Ollie Reese’s team-leading 393 receiving yards (39.3 yards per game) have come on 19 receptions with one touchdown.
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Morehead State stats and betting info

Betting trends for Morehead State

  • So far this year, Morehead State has put together a 5-4-0 record against the spread.
  • In games they have played as at least 5.5-point underdogs this season, the Eagles are 1-1 against the spread.
  • In Morehead State’s nine games with a set total, three have hit the over (33.3%).
  • In Morehead State’s nine games this season, four have finished with more combined scoring than Saturday’s total of 59.5.
  • The over/under for this game is 7.1 points fewer than the average over/under in Eagles’ games this season (66.6 points).
  • The Eagles rack up 83.9 more yards per game (425.7) than the Beacons give up (341.8).
  • This year the Eagles have turned the ball over zero times, while the Beacons have forced 0 turnovers.
Stat Average (Total) Rank
Pass yards 329.9 (3299) 6
Rush yards 95.8 (958) 111
Points scored 30.9 (309) 29
Pass yards against 245.7 (2457) 100
Rush yards against 180.5 (1805) 102
Points allowed 31.0 (310) 91

Key players for Morehead State

  • Mark Pappas leads Morehead State with 3,072 passing yards (307.2 ypg) on 259-of-459 passing with 25 touchdowns compared to 18 interceptions this season.
  • Issiah Aguero’s team-high 434 rushing yards (43.4 per game) have come on 112 carries, with seven touchdowns this year. He’s also tacked on 21 catches for 225 yards (22.5 per game) and one touchdown.
  • BJ Byrd’s team-high 1,206 receiving yards (120.6 yards per game) have come on 85 receptions with 13 touchdowns.

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