Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills: Best Odds and Preview for Week 5


By BestOdds Analyst | October 4, 2021, 8:40 pm

The Kansas City Chiefs (2-2) are slim favorites (-2.5) over the Buffalo Bills (3-1), despite the Bills having taken three games in a row. The expected point total for the game is 56.5.

Best odds for Chiefs vs. Bills

Welcome to the BestOdds betting breakdown where we use data from our industry leading partner, Sportradar, to identify performance trends in order to analyze teams’ chances in the upcoming game.

Today, we are looking at the NFL matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills in which the Bills are currently the clear pick among bettors to cover the spread.

Chiefs Vs. Bills Spread Betting Action

Chiefs vs Bills Moneyline Action
Chiefs Bills
Bet % 21% 79%
Stake % 20% 80%

Kansas City stats and betting info

Betting trends for Kansas City

  • Kansas City has covered the spread once in four opportunities this season.
  • The Chiefs are 1-3 against the spread when favored by 2.5 points or more this season.
  • Out of Kansas City’s four games with a set total, three have hit the over (75%).
Stat Average (Total) Rank
Pass yards 304.5 (1218) 6
Rush yards 130.3 (521) 8
Points scored 33.5 (134) 2
Pass yards against 307.0 (1228) 27
Rush yards against 146.0 (584) 29
Points allowed 31.3 (125) 31

Key players for Kansas City

  • Patrick Mahomes II has been a dual threat to lead Kansas City in both passing and rushing. He has 1,218 passing yards, completing 72.3% of his passes and recording 14 touchdown passes and four interceptions this season. He’s rushed for 92 yards (23.0 ypg) on 15 carries with one rushing touchdown.
  • Clyde Edwards-Helaire has carried the ball 58 times for a team-high 291 yards on the ground.
  • Tyreek Hill’s team-leading 453 yards as a receiver have come on 30 catches (out of 38 targets) with four touchdowns.
  • Travis Kelce has caught 24 passes for 312 yards (78.0 yards per game) and three touchdowns this year.
  • Mecole Hardman has been the target of 18 passes and hauled in 13 catches for 123 yards, an average of 30.8 yards per contest. He’s found the end zone one time through the air this season.

Kansas City injuries

Chiefs: Mike Danna: Out (Hamstring)

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Buffalo stats and betting info

Betting trends for Buffalo

  • So far this season, Buffalo has put together a 3-1-0 record against the spread.
  • In Buffalo’s four games with a set total, one has hit the over (25%).
Stat Average (Total) Rank
Pass yards 266.0 (1064) 15
Rush yards 145.3 (581) 5
Points scored 33.5 (134) 2
Pass yards against 167.3 (669) 1
Rush yards against 68.0 (272) 4
Points allowed 11.0 (44) 1

Key players for Buffalo

  • Josh Allen has put up 1,055 passing yards, or 263.8 per game, so far this season. He has completed 63.5% of his passes and has thrown nine touchdowns with two interceptions. He’s also chipped in on the ground with 32.3 rushing yards per game while scoring as a runner one time.
  • Devin Singletary is his team’s leading rusher with 49 carries for 259 yards, or 64.8 per game. He’s found paydirt one time on the ground, as well.
  • Zack Moss has been given 35 carries and totaled 147 yards with three touchdowns.
  • Stefon Diggs leads his team with 305 receiving yards on 26 receptions with one touchdown.
  • Emmanuel Sanders has put together a 268-yard season so far with two touchdowns. He’s caught 16 passes on 26 targets.
  • Cole Beasley has racked up 210 reciving yards (52.5 ypg) this season.

Buffalo injuries

Bills: Andre Roberts: Questionable (Ankle), Jake Fromm: Questionable (Not Injury Related), Zack Moss: Questionable (Toe), Tre’Davious White: Questionable (Back), Brian Winters: Questionable (Knee), Cody Ford: Questionable (Groin), Del’Shawn Phillips: Questionable (Quadricep), John Brown: Questionable (Knee), Matt Milano: Out (Pectoral)

Pick for Chiefs vs. Bills

Our in-depth statistical analysis combined with the betting split data from regulated betting sites points to the Bills being favored to cover the spread against the Chiefs.

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