Houston Astros vs. Atlanta Braves: World Series Game 1 Best Odds and Preview for October 26, 2021


By Claudio Fortuna | October 25, 2021, 8:45 am

The Houston Astros (95-67) host the Atlanta Braves (88-73) to begin the World Series on Tuesday 8:09 PM ET at Minute Maid Park.

Houston’s Framber Valdez and Atlanta’s Charlie Morton will start this matchup.

Best Odds for Houston Astros vs Atlanta Braves

Welcome to the BestOdds betting breakdown where we use data from our industry leading partner, Sportradar, to identify performance trends in order to analyze teams’ chances to win the upcoming game.

Today, we are looking at the MLB matchup between the Houston Astros and Atlanta Braves.

Astros Insights

Betting Trends

  • The Astros have won in 83, or 61.5%, of the 135 contests they have been named as odds-on favorites in this year.
  • Houston’s games have gone over the total in 85 of their 162 opportunities.
  • The Astros have scored the most runs (863) in baseball so far this year.
  • In nine games as the favorite over the last 10 matchups, Houston has a record of 4-5.
  • In their previous 10 matchups with a total posted by sportsbooks, the Astros and their foes are 4-6 when it comes to hitting the over.

Probable Starting Pitcher Stats

  • Valdez (11-6) gets the starting nod for the Astros in his 23rd start of the season. He’s put together a 3.14 ERA in 134 2/3 innings pitched, with 125 strikeouts.
  • In his most recent appearance on Wednesday against the Red Sox, the lefty threw eight innings, giving up one earned run while surrendering three hits.
  • In Valdez’s 22 starts, his team is 13-9.
  • Valdez’s starts with a set total this season have hit the over in 12 of 22 games.

Key Players

Name GP BA OBP SLG HR RBI H
Jose Siri 15 .304 .347 .609 4 9 14
Kyle Tucker 137 .294 .359 .557 30 92 149
Yordan Alvarez 144 .277 .346 .531 33 104 149
Carlos Correa 148 .279 .366 .485 26 92 155
Yuli Gurriel 141 .319 .383 .462 15 81 169
BestOdds rating 9.5
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Braves Insights

Betting Trends

  • The Braves have a 22-26 record in games they were the underdog on the moneyline (winning 45.8% of those games).
  • Atlanta has combined with opponents to go over the total 73 times this season for a 73-78-9 record against the over/under.
  • The Braves score the eighth-most runs in baseball (790 total, 4.9 per game).
  • Over the last 10 games, Atlanta has been named the moneyline underdog by oddsmakers just two times, and it split those games.
  • In their last 10 matchups (all had set totals), the Braves combined with their opponents to hit the over on the total four times.

Probable Starting Pitcher Stats

  • Morton makes the start for the Braves, his 34th of the season. He is 14-6 with a 3.30 ERA and 216 strikeouts in 185 2/3 innings pitched.
  • In his last time out on Tuesday against the Dodgers, the righty tossed five innings, allowing two earned runs while surrendering three hits.
  • Morton’s team has won 17 of his 33 starts.
  • Morton has had 33 starts that bookmakers set a total for this season, and 15 of those outings finished over the total.

Key Players

Name GP BA OBP SLG HR RBI H
Eddie Rosario 33 .271 .330 .573 7 16 26
Austin Riley 160 .303 .367 .531 33 107 179
Freddie Freeman 159 .300 .393 .503 31 83 180
Jorge Soler 55 .269 .358 .524 14 33 56
Adam Duvall 55 .226 .287 .513 16 45 45

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