Cincinnati vs. SMU Betting Odds & Game Analysis | College Football Week 12 Predictions


By Dan Watson | November 15, 2021, 2:39 am

The No. 3 Cincinnati Bearcats (10-0, 0-0 AAC) bring the No.6 scoring defense in the country into a contest versus the SMU Mustangs (8-2, 0-0 AAC), with the No. 6 scoring offense, on Saturday, November 20, 2021. The Bearcats are massive, 12-point favorites. The expected point total for the matchup is set at 65.

Welcome to the BestOdds betting breakdown where we use data from our industry leading partner, Sportradar, to identify performance trends in order to analyze teams’ chances in the upcoming game.

Cincinnati stats and betting info

Betting trends for Cincinnati

  • Cincinnati is 5-5-0 against the spread this season.
  • The Bearcats are 3-5 against the spread when favored by 12 points or more this season.
  • Cincinnati has hit the over in five of its 10 games with a set total (50%).
  • Cincinnati and its opponents have combined to go over Saturday’s total of 65 points just twice this season.
  • The Bearcats have seen a 53.6 average over/under in their games this season, 11.4 points fewer than the over/under in this matchup.
  • The Bearcats rack up 418.7 yards per game, just 13.0 more than the 405.7 the Mustangs give up per matchup.
  • When Cincinnati churns out over 405.7 yards, the team is 4-0.
  • The Bearcats have turned the ball over three more times (16 total) than the Mustangs have forced a turnover (13) this season.
Stat Average (Total) Rank
Pass yards 244.7 (2447) 56
Rush yards 174.0 (1740) 57
Points scored 39.2 (392) 9
Pass yards against 163.3 (1633) 5
Rush yards against 151.4 (1514) 69
Points allowed 16.2 (162) 6

Key players for Cincinnati

  • Desmond Ridder has thrown for 2,425 yards (242.5 ypg) to lead Cincinnati, completing 65.9% of his passes and recording 22 touchdown passes and six interceptions this season. He’s also run for 279 yards (27.9 ypg) on 80 carries with five rushing touchdowns.
  • Jerome Ford’s team-high 888 rushing yards (88.8 per game) have come on 142 carries, with 15 touchdowns this year. He’s also tacked on 15 catches for 169 yards (16.9 per game) and one touchdown.
  • Alec Pierce’s team-high 627 receiving yards (62.7 yards per game) have come on 37 receptions with four touchdowns.
BestOdds rating 9.3
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SMU stats and betting info

Betting trends for SMU

  • SMU is 5-4-0 ATS this year.
  • Five of SMU’s nine games with a set total have hit the over (55.6%).
  • Five of SMU’s games finished with a combined score over 65 points this season.
  • A difference of 1.1 points separates the average total points bet in Mustangs’ games (66.1 points) and this game’s over/under (65 points).
  • The Mustangs average 184.0 more yards per game (498.7) than the Bearcats give up per matchup (314.7).
  • SMU is 8-2 overall when the team churns out more than 314.7 yards.
  • The Mustangs have 15 giveaways this season, while the Bearcats have 28 takeaways .
Stat Average (Total) Rank
Pass yards 329.0 (3290) 8
Rush yards 169.7 (1697) 61
Points scored 41.6 (416) 6
Pass yards against 279.8 (2798) 123
Rush yards against 125.9 (1259) 32
Points allowed 25.9 (259) 64

Key players for SMU

  • Tanner Mordecai has 3,264 passing yards (326.4 ypg) to lead SMU, completing 69.9% of his passes and recording 37 touchdown passes and 10 interceptions this season. He’s also contributed on the ground with 191 rushing yards (19.1 ypg) on 59 carries with two rushing touchdowns.
  • The team’s top rusher, Tre Siggers, has carried the ball 137 times for 663 yards (66.3 per game), with eight touchdowns this year.
  • Danny Gray’s 803 receiving yards (80.3 yards per game) lead the team. He has 49 receptions with nine touchdowns.

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